Ronde van Vlaanderen 2025, one day monument, April 6 (men's)

[Lequack]

Where is Laporte lately?

 

[Berniece]

Where is Laporte lately?

Cytomegalovirus

 

[hayneplane]

Doubt he'll want to go in an early break himself. We'll get a better view of his level in Dwars Door Vlaanderen.

If he is intent on riding smart he would try to anticipate even as early as 1st Kwaremont but much lore like he tries to go mano a mano with the heads of state.

 

[Boehmand]

UAE is entering the race with Pogacar - and the 3rd, 4th and 5th place riders from last years Ronde.

It's quite the line up.

A clever UAE DS would ping Politt, Bjerg and Morgado off the front constantly when Alpecin gets low on numbers, to force MvdP to chase with Pogacar on his wheel.

More likely they will just take the front and ride hard, to rely on Pogacar going thermo nuclear and being able to drop MvdP.

I also think we will see bigger names go in moves earlier than usual, as nobody thinks they can stick with the big 2 on the late climbs - and that includes Pedersen, Van Aert and Jorgenson.

 

[Berniece]

I also think we will see bigger names go in moves earlier than usual, as nobody thinks they can stick with the big 2 on the late climbs - and that includes Pedersen, Van Aert and Jorgenson.

How much earlier? Last year some tried and Alpecin reeled them back in

 

[jono]

UAE is entering the race with Pogacar - and the 3rd, 4th and 5th place riders from last years Ronde.

It's quite the line up.

A clever UAE DS would ping Politt, Bjerg and Morgado off the front constantly when Alpecin gets low on numbers, to force MvdP to chase with Pogacar on his wheel.

More likely they will just take the front and ride hard, to rely on Pogacar going thermo nuclear and being able to drop MvdP.

I also think we will see bigger names go in moves earlier than usual, as nobody thinks they can stick with the big 2 on the late climbs - and that includes Pedersen, Van Aert and Jorgenson.

Were those 3 the 3rd, 4th and 5th strongest in the race, or influential at any point besides the finish?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

UAE is entering the race with Pogacar - and the 3rd, 4th and 5th place riders from last years Ronde.

It's quite the line up.

A clever UAE DS would ping Politt, Bjerg and Morgado off the front constantly when Alpecin gets low on numbers, to force MvdP to chase with Pogacar on his wheel.

More likely they will just take the front and ride hard, to rely on Pogacar going thermo nuclear and being able to drop MvdP.

I also think we will see bigger names go in moves earlier than usual, as nobody thinks they can stick with the big 2 on the late climbs - and that includes Pedersen, Van Aert and Jorgenson.

Making the race as hard as possible will probably be their role indeed. Once they are gone Pog will make his first move (not necessarily to drop everyone but to make the decisive selection and attack again later).

 

[hayneplane]

UAE is entering the race with Pogacar - and the 3rd, 4th and 5th place riders from last years Ronde.

It's quite the line up.

A clever UAE DS would ping Politt, Bjerg and Morgado off the front constantly when Alpecin gets low on numbers, to force MvdP to chase with Pogacar on his wheel.

More likely they will just take the front and ride hard, to rely on Pogacar going thermo nuclear and being able to drop MvdP.

I also think we will see bigger names go in moves earlier than usual, as nobody thinks they can stick with the big 2 on the late climbs - and that includes Pedersen, Van Aert and Jorgenson.

I think either strategy is fine as ultimately the only thing that will matter is whether MVDP can withstand Pogacars attacks and take it to the run in after final ascent of the Paterberg.

 

[hayneplane]

Were those 3 the 3rd, 4th and 5th strongest in the race, or influential at any point besides the finish?

Never a factor for the win in any way but did superbly in maximising their result. Morgado was a neopro so to get top 5 in a monument was an outstanding performance and achievement no matter how it came about.

 

[Brullnux]

UAE is entering the race with Pogacar - and the 3rd, 4th and 5th place riders from last years Ronde.

It's quite the line up.

A clever UAE DS would ping Politt, Bjerg and Morgado off the front constantly when Alpecin gets low on numbers, to force MvdP to chase with Pogacar on his wheel.

No sensible DS would be afraid of Bjerg and Politt going off the front, I doubt they'd even be the strongest of any small group they're in. If we're being honest, UAE outside of Wellens have been anonymous in Flemish races this year (and Molano in De Panne, but that doesn't count). Not much to suggest that'll suddenly change, just because last year they did well.

 

[hayneplane]

No sensible DS would be afraid of Bjerg and Politt going off the front, I doubt they'd even be the strongest of any small group they're in.

Especially as neither have a sprint you would trust against any credible candidate to reach the finish. (I know they were high up in the consolation prize group but that is very different from a sprint for a win).

 

[Brullnux]

Especially as neither have a sprint you would trust against any credible candidate to reach the finish. (I know they were high up in the consolation prize group but that is very different from a sprint for a win).

They're honest riders but they're clearly not monument contenders. Besides, they seem to also be relatively out of form. Wellens is the only UAE rider who I'd say Alpecin would be keeping a genuinely close eye on (other than Pogacar), similar to how they'd keep an eye on, say, Stuyven. Narvaez maybe, but his form is an incognitus of which we will learn more about on Wednesday

 

[scribers]

No sensible DS would be afraid of Bjerg and Politt going off the front, I doubt they'd even be the strongest of any small group they're in. If we're being honest, UAE outside of Wellens have been anonymous in Flemish races this year (and Molano in De Panne, but that doesn't count). Not much to suggest that'll suddenly change, just because last year they did well.

Vermeersch is said to have nice climbing times at e3, which might give him the idea he’s something of a leader option. But yeah, there’s one rider at uae other top teams are worried about until he might dnf out of the race.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Remarkable: Wellens isn't on the provisional start list.

 

[Sciatic]

I think they will try to send strong riders into a breakaway forcing the big2 and their teams to react. It will make the finale even harder and more intense (aka 2023 Flandres).

I would like to see that. But I don't think it can be as effective as in the Quickstep heyday. In that era seeing some strong riders go off the front with 80-100 km to go did not always prompt a response from the favorites. Now both Pogacar and MVDP think nothing of going off in a small group (or even just themselves) with 80-100km to go. Maybe it could work if other teams create one of those giant early breaks with some strong riders (Jorgenson?) in them, but what are the chances UAE or Alpecin would allow that to happen?.

 

[Sciatic]

UAE is entering the race with Pogacar - and the 3rd, 4th and 5th place riders from last years Ronde.

It's quite the line up.

A clever UAE DS would ping Politt, Bjerg and Morgado off the front constantly when Alpecin gets low on numbers, to force MvdP to chase with Pogacar on his wheel.

More likely they will just take the front and ride hard, to rely on Pogacar going thermo nuclear and being able to drop MvdP.

I also think we will see bigger names go in moves earlier than usual, as nobody thinks they can stick with the big 2 on the late climbs - and that includes Pedersen, Van Aert and Jorgenson.

I don't think there's any chance MVDP will chase anyone else but Pog. Look back at his classics duels with Van Aert when they were close to equal, they only watched each other. Even more true for MVDP in this scenario. After all, he's already a multiple winner, he will feel like he can afford to gamble.

 

[Heston]

Remarkable: Wellens isn't on the provisional start list.

He was a week ago. No idea why they would remove hin, his shape seems great.

 

[Poursuivant]

Pedersen should attack from 80km to go.

I expect this

 

[Cookster15]

I expect this

Not a bad prediction, its his only chance IMO. Pederson just won Gent-Wevelgem with an 80km solo attack. If MVDP and Pog are with him close to the finish I don't think he could beat them. As mentioned up-thread quite possible that MVDP and Pogi mark each other and let Mads go in this scenario.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Surely Tim Wellens is going, he's the only UAE dom in decent form, others look average at the moment, though perhaps Narvaez can do something, was pulled from E3/Gent for some bizarre reason (punchup after MSR in bus).

 

[Dazed and Confused]

so what about visma's van Baalre? Is he no longer capable of hanging around until the business end (ex aliens)?

 

[E_F_]

I don't think 80 km to go is early enough to anticipate anything.

 

[kingjr]

Pogacar to win it on the Koppenberg

 

[hayneplane]

I don't think 80 km to go is early enough to anticipate anything.

I agree in this era. Look at WC where the favourite went with 101km to go and wasn’t seen again until after the line.

Anyone serious about causing a shock should be making moves on Kwaremont 1 to try and form an 8-10 man group big enough to have firepower but not so big they all sit on and start to look at each other.

 

[hayneplane]

so what about visma's van Baalre? Is he no longer capable of hanging around until the business end (ex aliens)?

Keeps crashing. Did his collarbone in TDU for a miserable start to the season.