Ronde van Vlaanderen 2026, monument, April 5 (men's)

[Berniece]

But is he really in devastating form? He will need it to have a chance to follow all Pogacar's attacks (and even then it will be difficult).
We will find out next week, he looked superb in Tirreno but not that great afterwards.

At first I thought he wasn't, but since he is breaking his own records, I think he is.

 

[TheKidsCallMeBoss]

MvdP was in better shape last year and wasn't even close to winning.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

MvdP was in better shape last year and wasn't even close to winning.

He had some illness setback before RVV but there's no guarantee he would've been able to stay with Pog anyway.

 

[vappa]

At first I thought he wasn't, but since he is breaking his own records, I think he is.

I think that was a powermeter misreading because the value makes no sense really

 

[TheKidsCallMeBoss]

I think that was a powermeter misreading because the value makes no sense really

Alpecin uses a Shimano random number generator

He had some illness setback before RVV but there's no guarantee he would've been able to stay with Pog anyway.

He won a race a week before and after RVV. I think he was fine.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He won a race a week before and after RVV. I think he was fine.

Alpecin said he was ill and even took antibiotics for 3 days. It could've weakened him for RVV. Then again, there's another data point (2023: Pogacar dropping Van der Poel in peak condition) and it's also not a given that MVP would've been able to match Pog in 2025 under different circumstances (so last year's data point can't be completely discarded).

 

[jotafap]

Under normal race circumstances, Pogacar will repeat the recipe, and he has the team to take him to that same position.

 

[Pantani_lives]

It's on Easter Sunday, so we can expect a resurrection. Asgreen? Bettiol? Van Baarle?

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Will be a slaughter. MVDP looks not as strong as in previous years and Pogacar in MSR actually looked even better than usual. Also has a potential top 5 guy as his domestique.
I reckon everyone will still be happyn to work with him because whatever and then he'll once again leave Kwaremont with a 30 second gap.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Will be a slaughter. MVDP looks not as strong as in previous years and Pogacar in MSR actually looked even better than usual. Also has a potential top 5 guy as his domestique.
I reckon everyone will still be happyn to work with him because whatever and then he'll once again leave Kwaremont with a 30 second gap.

I also have a feeling that MVP was more impressive in the previous years (relative to the competition, I'm not discussing absolute watts). As for Pog, he seems at least as good as last year.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Van der Poel might be weaker than last year, but if he can be in Pogačar's wheel when he attacks rather than sitting further behind and being on the back foot all the time, then he won't necessarily have a worse chance of winning than he had 12 months ago.

 

[canina82]

Van der Poel might be weaker than last year, but if he can be in Pogačar's wheel when he attacks rather than sitting further behind and being on the back foot all the time, then he won't necessarily have a worse chance of winning than he had 12 months ago.

He was on the back foot one time (2nd time on Kwaremont). He did almost every climb in the wheel of Pogacar (specially the climb, 3rd time on Kwaremont, where he was dropped)

 

[Samu Cuenca]

He was on the back foot one time (2nd time on Kwaremont). He did almost every climb in the wheel of Pogacar (specially the climb, 3rd time on Kwaremont, where he was dropped)

I have had no reasons to rewatch the race, but I remember very well what my impression was at the time, which the quote from the thread confirms.

He did himself no favours by not being glued to Pogačar's wheel for three of the earlier attacks.

 

[canina82]

I have had no reasons to rewatch the race, but I remember very well what my impression was at the time, which the quote from the thread confirms.

There was a 2nd time he wasn't on Pogacar's wheel but that's it. Pogacar attacked and MVP was at the back of that group (less than 10 riders I believe). But you are ignoring the reason behind MVP not being on Pogacar's wheel all the time (forgetting the 2nd time on Kwaremont), he was close to his limit trying to follow Pogacar every time they went on a hill.

 

[hayneplane]

Looks even less complicated than last year as the next tier of contenders appear to be very ordinary this year. The best Pedersen can hope for is to win a best of the rest sprint for a top 5 given where he is in post crash injury recovery. Trentin and Stuyven are still very smart operators who stay well positioned at the right moments but it feels like age has caught up with them and they won’t be able to be a factor deep in the race as they were in 2025.

My prediction is Pogacar solo by 1 minute+ then MVDP 2nd on his own and Pedersen or Tobias Lund Andresen if he races getting 3rd in a 25-30 rider group sprint.

 

[Blanco]

Van Der Poel will drop Pogacar on the last Paterberg.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

There was a 2nd time he wasn't on Pogacar's wheel but that's it. Pogacar attacked and MVP was at the back of that group (less than 10 riders I believe). But you are ignoring the reason behind MVP not being on Pogacar's wheel all the time (forgetting the 2nd time on Kwaremont), he was close to his limit trying to follow Pogacar every time they went on a hill.

But clearly he didn't go over his limit the first times when he was able to catch Pogačar despite starting his chase from a less than ideal position. However, it must have taken more energy out of him than what could have been the case.

Would better positioning throughout the race have been enough for him to have followed the last time around, and if so would he also have been able to respond to any possible attacks afterwards? I find it doubtful, but we'll never know. But if he isn't straight on Pogi's wheel every time this year, then I will eat a hat, or a cap thrown by a crazy lady, if he manages to win.

 

[YavorD]

But clearly he didn't go over his limit the first times when he was able to catch Pogačar despite starting his chase from a less than ideal position. However, it must have taken more energy out of him than what could have been the case.

Would better positioning throughout the race have been enough for him to have followed the last time around, and if so would he also have been able to respond to any possible attacks afterwards? I find it doubtful, but we'll never know. But if he isn't straight on Pogi's wheel every time this year, then I will eat a hat if he manages to win.

To be honest, the way Pogacar reached the front last year was rather impressive.
If I remember correctly, he was boxed in, even behind Van Der Poel and went off the road overtaking couple of riders before his attack.

If it was Biathlon or f1 he would've been DSQ.

 

[Didinho]

Mathieu didn’t felt great today but still dropped everyone. Wout was just hanging on. He also did ride a bit more defensive, a good test for next week. Don’t pull like you normally would do with Pogi.

I don’t think he’s weaker than last year. I find his climbing even better than before, like that steep climb in Tirreno. The Sanremo crash took something out of him but E3 and today confirmed for me he’s doing just fine. A week to recover and ready to take on the battle again.

 

[canina82]

But clearly he didn't go over his limit the first times when he was able to catch Pogačar despite starting his chase from a less than ideal position. However, it must have taken more energy out of him than what could have been the case.

Would better positioning throughout the race have been enough for him to have followed the last time around, and if so would he also have been able to respond to any possible attacks afterwards? I find it doubtful, but we'll never know. But if he isn't straight on Pogi's wheel every time this year, then I will eat a hat, or a cap thrown by a crazy lady, if he manages to win.

Excluding the first time, I believe he isn't always on Pogacar’s wheel because he is/was trying to recover. IMO, MVP can't do anything against Pogacar, the gap is growing and he reached his limit on the hills, it's physically impossible for him to match Pogacar over and over again.
There is only one way I see Pogacar losing and depends on MVP not working with him however this also decreases a lot MVP's chances of winning. For that reason I believe he will work and the race will be over again on Kwaremont just like 2023 and 2025.

 

[Keldergoat]

MvdP was in better shape last year and wasn't even close to winning.

He was sick between E3 and RvV. He never used it as an excuse but everyone around him confirmed he was under the weather quite a bit.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

To be honest, the way Pogacar reached the front last year was rather impressive.
If I remember correctly, he was boxed in, even behind Van Der Poel and went off the road overtaking couple of riders before his attack.

If it was Biathlon or f1 he would've been DSQ.

Well Van der Poel isn't exactly someone who's known for always staying on the course, so I won't hold that against him in their internal battle.

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

In my mind it's simple, there's no way to follow pog on the final two laps. After 215 km, with 80 km already in the hills, you come to a stretch including koppen, taien, kruis and 2x oude + pater in 40 km's. No new strategy or perfecting the execution will make a difference there.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Will be on Kwaremont again

Easy Van Aert victory!

 

[Samamba]

Favourites:
De Lie, Laporte, F. Vermeersch **

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