Ronde van Vlaanderen 2026, monument, April 5 (men's)

[Poursuivant]

If nothing bad happens (crash/injury etc) Pogacar will cook everyone.

MVDP to not podium.

 

[MJR]

I just hope it's not the usual Pog attack and done. This race deserves better than a foregone conclusion.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Like I said in today's race thread, Pog gonna' smoke those fools.

 

[Brumdog66]

I just hope Wout and mvdp colude from the beginning. Probably still won’t work but worth a try

 

[Pantani_lives]

• Pogacar 50%
• MvdP 30%
• Van Aert 10%
• Pedersen 5%
• Someone else 5%

Pogacar is the obvious favorite, but winning here is never a given, so he still needs a super day. MvdP is just as strong as last year; people just don't realize how hard it is to ride a long solo against the wind. Van Aert is strong, but he seems doomed to finish between 2nd and 4th once again. Pedersen is doubtful after being injured and ill. It's hard to think of any other candidates, except perhaps in a tactical scenario where someone else from UAE gets away solo.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar is the obvious favorite, but winning here is never a given, so he still needs a super day.

It's been like that for 5 consecutive classics. Van der Poel's biggest asset in this race is his sprint. If he somehow manages to survive he will smoke Pogacar in the finale. He doesn't have to attack or overpower his main opponent but survive those bergs (easier said than done though). That's why Pogacar is not as overwhelming favourite as he would be otherwise (he's still #1 favourite ofc). Tactical situation in Roubaix will be similar but flat cobbles are better for Van der Poel (regarding his rivalry with Pog) and that's why he's #1 favourite there. Hopefully a pair of great races ahead.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

• Pedersen 5%

Pedersen is doubtful after being injured and ill. It's hard to think of any other candidates, except perhaps in a tactical scenario where someone else from UAE gets away solo.

I'll write Pedersen clean off the list for RvV 26. It might be he'd been able to hometrain with broken wrist and collar to a M-SR 4th.

But even though bad positioned in E3 when MvDP attacked you would've expected a bit more from a '25 Mads version.

On top of that illness as 'preparation' for his upcoming main goals.

Furthermore, despite his surprisingly quick comeback in M-SR, my thoughts right since then has circled around his wrist, and cannot quite believe it to be at 100% yet. This for the two main cobblestone events that require 112% of your wrists.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Pogacar massive favorite, but MVDP can win if he realizes Pogi is the massive favorite and rides like he understands what it means.

 

[Peter von]

Pedersen did full classics season and had his best ever GT.
I think it will be a waste for Lund Andresen to skip at least Roubaix.

Yeah, but Pedersen is also a beast and that was his schedule all along, so the training plan was tailored to that. If Lund has been prepping for a break from racing after Dwaars door, it might not be great to just change those plans. These days the fitness of athletes is a matter of micro management.

Looks like they wanted to ease Lund into being a classics rider and then he just did better in the semi-classics than expected.

So they will probably look at giving him a prominent role in next season's monuments. No time like the present tho, I think they must be strongly considering giving him a go in at least one of the two upcoming monuments.

 

[Keldergoat]

It's been like that for 5 consecutive classics. Van der Poel's biggest asset in this race is his sprint. If he somehow manages to survive he will smoke Pogacar in the finale. He doesn't have to attack or overpower his main opponent but survive those bergs (easier said than done though). That's why Pogacar is not as overwhelming favourite as he would be otherwise (he's still #1 favourite ofc). Tactical situation in Roubaix will be similar but flat cobbles are better for Van der Poel (regarding his rivalry with Pog) and that's why he's #1 favourite there. Hopefully a pair of great races ahead.

The thing with MvdP is, he never sucks wheels. Feels like an unwritten rule in his playbook that he should cooperate, regardless the situation. If I were the Roodhoofts, I'd advise him to ride a bit more defensively in the part between second Kwaremont and the Koppenberg.

 

[Berniece]

Pogacar massive favorite, but MVDP can win if he realizes Pogi is the massive favorite and rides like he understands what it means.

I think his ego is too big for that. He'll work hard too because he wants to show the riders behind him that he's also much stronger than them

 

[RedheadDane]

Furthermore, despite his surprisingly quick comeback in M-SR, my thoughts right since then has circled around his wrist, and cannot quite believe it to be at 100% yet. This for the two main cobblestone events that require 112% of your wrists.

I've been wondering if he maybe came back too quickly. Recovering from those injuries probabably didn't do wonders for his immune system...

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think his ego is too big for that. He'll work hard too because he wants to show the riders behind him that he's also much stronger than them

MVP is an honest racer in the sense that he's ok with the race outcome when the strongest guy wins (and it's not him). I'm also not expecting him to suck Pogacar's wheel all the time. In many cases we saw him being tactically smart though (he knows how to use Van Aert's or Ganna's help for example).

 

[mikks]

If Pogačar and van der Poel get clear, MVDP has an incentive to keep pulling because he is clearly the stronger sprinter than Pogačar. If he stops pulling, the chasers might come back. And even if he would still be the best sprinter in that group, (depending on who is chasing) his overall chances would still be worse than in a head-to-head with Pogačar.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If Pogačar and van der Poel get clear, MVDP has an incentive to keep pulling because he is clearly the stronger sprinter than Pogačar. If he stops pulling, the chasers might come back. And even if he would still be the best sprinter in that group, (depending on who is chasing) his overall chances would still be worse than in a head-to-head with Pogačar.

It depends when they get clear. If it's relatively early in the race (i.e. 50 km from the line) then by pulling MVP will risk getting dropped by Pogacar on decisive hills. He will pull nonetheless, I'm sure about it.

 

[Berniece]

If Pogačar and van der Poel get clear, MVDP has an incentive to keep pulling because he is clearly the stronger sprinter than Pogačar. If he stops pulling, the chasers might come back. And even if he would still be the best sprinter in that group, (depending on who is chasing) his overall chances would still be worse than in a head-to-head with Pogačar.

With how MVDP rode in E3, he could easily say to Pogacar that he doesn't take a single turn until after the last time Oude Kwaremont. If Pogacar attacks there, and MVDP is able to follow, they probably have a 15s gap on everyone else. Only start riding from that point on. It's only Paterberg left, where I doubt Pogacar can drop MVDP.

 

[canina82]

Pogacar massive favorite, but MVDP can win if he realizes Pogi is the massive favorite and rides like he understands what it means.

If MVP doesn't work with Pogacar, he will not win for sure.
Chances of beating Pogacar if MVP works (a litllr bit less) with him: 25%

Chances of beating Pogacar if MVP doesn't work with him: Probably lower than 10%.

IMO, bar crashes or mechanicals, we need option number 2 if we don't want to see Pogacar winning alone

 

[Berniece]

Chances of beating Pogacar if MVP doesn't work with him: Probably lower than 10%.

Why?

 

[mikks]

It depends when they get clear. If it's relatively early in the race (i.e. 50 km from the line) then by pulling MVP will risk getting dropped by Pogacar on decisive hills. He will pull nonetheless, I'm sure about it.

If the two of them got clear, that would mean he had been able to follow Pogačar on the climbs, so he might feel he has a chance of doing it again on the next ones.
If I remember the 2022 RVV correctly, he struggled a bit to follow Pogačar, especially on the Paterberg, and after the top he did not immediately begin working with him. He took a moment to recover and then started contributing.

In the grand scheme of things, Pogačar and van der Poel both want (Pog more so) to simplify the race and to avoid lottery. At the end of the day, I think, races depend far more on legs and condition than on tactical games.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If the two of them got clear, that would mean he had been able to follow Pogačar on the climbs, so he might feel he has a chance of doing it again on the next ones.
If I remember the 2022 RVV correctly, he struggled a bit to follow Pogačar, especially on the Paterberg, and after the top he did not immediately begin working with him. He took a moment to recover and then started contributing.

In the grand scheme of things, Pogačar and van der Poel both want (Pog more so) to simplify the race and to avoid lottery. At the end of the day, I think, races depend far more on legs and condition than on tactical games.

Last year MVP was able to follow all Pogacar's accelerations except the last one. Last year actually a few guys matched Pogacar on the penultimate Kwaremont but none on the final one despite it being slower (cumulated fatigue got to them). That's why Pogacar will up the tempo on every steeper section to gradually tire bigger guys with lower w/kg (as funny as it sounds Pogacar changed RVV into w/kg fest, he did it even to MSR!). Likely Vermeersch will do a lot of work there.

 

[canina82]

Last year MVP was able to follow all Pogacar's accelerations except the last one. Last year actually a few guys matched Pogacar on the penultimate Kwaremont but none on the final one despite it being slower (cumulated fatigue got to them). That's why Pogacar will up the tempo on every steeper section to gradually tire bigger guys with lower w/kg. Likely Vermeersch will do a lot of work there.

The race was soft before the 2nd Kwaremont. UAE was affected by the loss of Wellens and Narvaez

 

[YavorD]

With how MVDP rode in E3, he could easily say to Pogacar that he doesn't take a single turn until after the last time Oude Kwaremont. If Pogacar attacks there, and MVDP is able to follow, they probably have a 15s gap on everyone else. Only start riding from that point on. It's only Paterberg left, where I doubt Pogacar can drop MVDP.

And Pogacar will simply give VdP a free ride?
The only chance of this happening is if VdP has a teammate who is potential winner up the road.

 

[Berniece]

And Pogacar will simply give VdP a free ride?
The only chance of this happening is if VdP has a teammate who is potential winner up the road.

Only chance of Pogacar winning is if he drops everyone else. It's not like he has a choice.

I also don't understand why this doesn't happen more often. I see Evenepoel complain at least 5 times a year that they don't want to work with him, because he'll drop them later. Everyone works with Pogacar to be dropped later.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The race was soft before the 2nd Kwaremont. UAE was affected by the loss of Wellens and Narvaez

As opposed to Wellens and Narváez also not being available this year?

 

[hayneplane]

As opposed to Wellens and Narváez also not being available this year?

It’s a bit different when knowing that ahead of the race and plannning accordingly than having to adjust on the fly and hope for more work from riders who have already been on the front at that point in the race not expecting to a part of the extended final.

My bigger issue is that Vermeersch, who is in great form and should be the key player in making the race harder, might just turn out to be overraced and past his form peak much as Jorgensen did great in the classics leading up to RVV but wilted in the final 55km of RVV last year.