Skil vs Vacan - The Showdown for the Last Licence

[Sydney21]

As I see it, without even analysing the points or whatever very closely, there are 17 teams who should have a secure spot. More or less, Greenedge will replace HTC and Lotto - Ridley will replace Omega Pharma.

ALM Ag2r-La Mondiale
AST Astana
BMC BMC Racing Team
MOV Movistar
EUS Euskaltel-Euskadi
GRM Garmin-Cervélo
LAM Lampre-ISD
LIQ Liquigas-Cannondale
LEO Leopard Trek
QST Quick Step
RAB Rabobank
OLO Omega Pharma-Lotto
THR HTC-Highroad High Road
KAT Team Katusha
RSH Team RadioShack
SBS Saxo Bank-SunGard
SKY Team Sky

VCD Vacansoleil ?
SKS Skil Shimano ?

I have discarded Europcar as a contender because even though Voeckler, Rolland Kern and others will all be able to ride for wins in good races, they do not have a strong enough team to be really strong for the length of the year.

To me, if Skil get Degenkolb and/or Martin they will deserve the license. Kittel looks as if he will bring in wins all season long with Kluge and Veelers in his leadout. Degenkolb the same... And Martin would give them a massive edge in terms of competing for the overall in stage races. Younger riders such as Geniez and Geschke already look promising for the hilly classics and the stage races too.

Vacan on the other hand... (aside from the fact that Mosquera will almost certainly not be there) will have a good roster with Leukmans, Poels, Hoogerland, Devolder, Felliu, Van Hummel and De Gendt as well as others like Carrara and Marcarto too. But to me there are so many riders who are old or are the sort of riders who battle for 15th spot in a grand tour. I have no problem with a team having no GT leader but I feel a team without one needs a sprinter who can win on a consistant basis in big stage races.

For me Kittel, Degenkolb and Martin are certainties for stage wins in big races. Degenkolb is an up and coming Roubaix star as he showed last year compared to Leukmans who is on his way down and Devolder who has been poor the last couple of years. And Tony Martin if he came, even though he may not ever be a GT contender, would be a great guy to compete for the win in all the big one week races of the year.

Who would you choose and what is the decision contingent on? (i.e. mine is on Degenkolb and Martin signing)

 

[Ferminal]

Where did you get Vacansoleil from? They will be top15.

 

[daveinzambia]

JV twitted a list based on 'known' signings which had Vacansoleil in 8th place.

Euskatel and AG2R looking more at risk.

 

[Ferminal]

Euskatel and AG2R looking more at risk.

Euskaltel may end up being OK depending on how the Vuelta goes. But they may be planning on stepping down to Pro Conti anyway.

Outside the top15, of those who may be in line for a WT license I have Geox, Astana (pending Vuelta performance), Lotto, AG2R, Europcar and Skil.

So in the top15 I have Euskaltel who may not make it if they suffer misfortune at the Vuelta, and Saxo, who will not make the top15 without Contador.

 

[Fetisoff]

You do realize, that it's points from last two years, right?

 

[PCutter]

JV put up rankings twiterpic apparently including known signings, based on this and Skil being 22 - they probably need to sign Martin. Though GE looks very high in the points given they haven't really announced too many riders

http://twitpic.com/66lhni

 

[ingsve]

JV put up rankings twiterpic apparently including known signings, based on this and Skil being 22 - they probably need to sign Martin. Though GE looks very high in the points given they haven't really announced too many riders

http://twitpic.com/66lhni

The GE score probably includes a lot of the unconformed but very likely signings like Goss, Gerrans and Langeveld.

 

[Fetisoff]

The GE score probably includes a lot of the unconformed but very likely signings like Goss, Gerrans and Langeveld.

Yeah, these are very questionable for now. For example Katusha have 90 more points for 2012, and that's with them certainly losing Pozatto, and the only one signed so far is Vicioso, who's not even close to Pozatto's point total. There have been no other signings yet

 

[ingsve]

Yeah, these are very questionable for now. For example Katusha have 90 more points for 2012, and that's with them certainly losing Pozatto, and the only one signed so far is Vicioso, who's not even close to Pozatto's point total. There have been no other signings yet

There is still a quarter to a third left of the season as well. It makes it curious also what the teams will finally end up doing about the Beijing WT event. Could be some free points there to get if a team sends their A-team while others might send their C-squad. If they end up going at all.

 

[Sydney21]

Where did you get Vacansoleil from? They will be top15.

I read earlier this year that their place was being reconsidered because of the whole Mosquera and Ricco thing. Without their points they would not have qualified. The UCI were going to have a meeting but because Mosquera's case is up in the air I'm not sure that they could make a descision.

Have I missed some subsequent news on this... I did a quick google search and couldnt find any ruling...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/uci-considers-revoking-vacansoleil-dcms-proteam-license

Perhaps they were only considering revoking it for this year and then decided against it...

But anyway do we think that Skil - with Martin and Degenkolb should warrant a licence?? and I find it hard to see there bein no French teams with a license. Remember there are other criteria for becoming WT other than sporting.

 

[Fetisoff]

There is still a quarter to a third left of the season as well. It makes it curious also what the teams will finally end up doing about the Beijing WT event. Could be some free points there to get if a team sends their A-team while others might send their C-squad. If they end up going at all.

Well, the Beijing one is iffy. I doubt that anyone will want to do Beijing and then Giro di Lombardia, and there are lots of .HC races on right before Lombardia (around same time as Beijing), which put together might be worth more towards the ranking, than Beijing. So, that makes a few teams likely to send their A-Team to the Beijing event, basically the ones that don't have great team for the hilly classics, or someone like Skil if they get invited

 

[JA.Tri]

THR in top 17???

I note THR in the top 17. Surely it should be Top 16 (with THR deleted). Unless I am really stupid and missing some bleeding obvious??

 

[luckyboy]

So do the WorldTour contracts mean nothing now then?

People are talking about Euskaltel and AG2R falling out of it but their contracts run til 2012. Vacansoleil's runs til 2013.

Saxo Bank, Garmin, QST, Omega Pharma-Lotto and Katusha's contracts run til the end of this year.

 

[skidmark]

I wonder how much Geox will jump in the rankings if they get good performances from Menchov, Sastre, Cobo, Duarte et al in the Vuelta. That could change the picture significantly for them, especially given that the teams just above them probably aren't sending as much of an A+ team as that.

Either way, a lot to be settled. I also wonder if Euskaltel would not apply for a license if they finished outside of the top 15, I remember the talk a couple of years ago that they might benefit going down to Pro Conti, and the fact that they've released a list of only 15 resigned riders is maybe telling...

 

[ingsve]

So do the WorldTour contracts mean nothing now then?

People are talking about Euskaltel and AG2R falling out of it but their contracts run til 2012. Vacansoleil's runs til 2013.

Saxo Bank, Garmin, QST, Omega Pharma-Lotto and Katusha's contracts run til the end of this year.

The relevance if World Tour contracts and expiration dates is a bit tricky it seems. As far as I can tell if you are in the top 15 of the sporting ranking then you get a contract for next year no matter what. If you are outside of the top 20 then you are out no matter what. The question is whether there is any weight being given to the length of the license when deciding which 3 out of the five 16-20 placed teams gets a license.

 

[Ferminal]

So do the WorldTour contracts mean nothing now then?

That's one thing I don't understand.

The multi-year licenses must be subject to meeting the criteria - sporting (top15), ethical (be nice to Pat) and financial (don't lose your sponsors). If you do not satisfy those then you can be given the flick, so really have extra years on your license means nothing?

(Just my guess at how it works).

 

[skidmark]

So do the WorldTour contracts mean nothing now then?

People are talking about Euskaltel and AG2R falling out of it but their contracts run til 2012. Vacansoleil's runs til 2013.

Saxo Bank, Garmin, QST, Omega Pharma-Lotto and Katusha's contracts run til the end of this year.

Yeah, I thought about that when I made the above comment about Euskaltel. But honestly, the rules on ProTeam licences seem so opaque right now that I have no idea what the UCI will pull out of their hat. If they do hold to that above list that are running out, I have no idea what's going to happen or how teams like GreenEdge or Geox expect to make the jump up.

We will see, I guess. Either way, it seems that it's much more complicated than 'Vacansoleil vs. Skil'.

 

[daveinzambia]

looking at last years process

http://www.uciworldtour.com/Modules...es/UCI/UCI5/layout.asp?MenuId=MTY5Mw&LangId=1

the way i read it the initially places were awarded to teams with existing licences that met the sporting /ethical / financial and admin criteria

then everyone else that applies goes into a pot. all those that meet the ethical / financial and admin values are listed in order of points and the places awarded down the list until they have the full quota of teams

so guess that means if a team is 15th in list and has licence there is no way they can be replaced but lower than 15th then even if they have a licence they can lose it if they are overtaken by other teams looking to move up.

could be completely wrong though

 

[theyoungest]

JV put up rankings twiterpic apparently including known signings, based on this and Skil being 22 - they probably need to sign Martin. Though GE looks very high in the points given they haven't really announced too many riders

http://twitpic.com/66lhni

I don't understand where Rabo gets its points from... although what might be reflected in this list is the fact that Rabo don't really have a few great riders scoring lots of points (hence they're not even in the top-10 of the WT ranking) but they do have a lot of lesser riders doing okay.

Or they've made some big signing which I haven't heard about.

 

[Midnightfright]

If Contador is banned an losses all his points where would Saxo be ranked? It couldn't be very high. Maybe they would be in trouble aswell.

 

[ingsve]

I don't understand where Rabo gets its points from... although what might be reflected in this list is the fact that Rabo don't really have a few great riders scoring lots of points (hence they're not even in the top-10 of the WT ranking) but they do have a lot of lesser riders doing okay.

Or they've made some big signing which I haven't heard about.

Well, Gesink alone is worth around 220-250 points. LLS is worth 160-170 somewhere. Theo Bos is around 30-35. Michael Matthews is around 75-90 points. Boom is 35-50 points. Freire is 100-120 points. Kruijswijs is 40-60 points.

Adding just those together you get somewhere between 660-775 points and you still have 8 other riders points to add on top of that.

 

[Tuarts]

Just to perma-link that pic:

Also there's this one:

From this article.

I think this points formula is what the journo used to get the rough points. A lot will change, especially as some races haven't been raced nor transfer completed. Still think its more accurate than an 'imo'.

Also last year 16-18th were reviewed weren't they? Iirc it was Ag2r, Cofidis, Euskatel and Geox "in the pot".

Edit: ah, "evaluated", 16th-20th and 2 missed out. In ranking order that was Eusakatel, Geox, Quickstep, Cofidis, AG2R. So Geox were the big losers there.

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?p=374154#post374154

 

[ingsve]

From this article.

I think this points formula is what the journo used to get the rough points. A lot will change, especially as some races haven't been raced nor transfer completed. Still think its more accurate than an 'imo'.

Also last year 16-18th were reviewed weren't they? Iirc it was Ag2r, Cofidis, Euskatel and Geox "in the pot".

Edit: ah, "evaluated", 16th-20th and 2 missed out. In ranking order that was Eusakatel, Geox, Quickstep, Cofidis, AG2R. So Geox were the big losers there.

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?p=374154#post374154

Yes, he told me on twitter that he has constructed the extended WT ranking that includes all pro continental riders and all the continental rankings that include WT riders and from that and from the bonus points for winning races etc he has calculated the current standings in the sporting critera ranking. It's really a massive job he's been doing. He's been working on in since March and is planning on selling his rankings somewhere which is why he's not publishing the individual rider rankings he has created.

 

[El Pistolero]

AG2R Mondiale is doing a lot worse than Vacansoleil if you ask me.

Quickstep doesn't count, they'll bring in a lot of new cyclists and they will have a much stronger team next year.

 

[Tuarts]

Yes, he told me on twitter that he has constructed the extended WT ranking that includes all pro continental riders and all the continental rankings that include WT riders and from that and from the bonus points for winning races etc he has calculated the current standings in the sporting critera ranking. It's really a massive job he's been doing. He's been working on in since March and is planning on selling his rankings somewhere which is why he's not publishing the individual rider rankings he has created.

Yeah kudos too him. A journalist that actually took on the hard task and didn't just take shortcuts to post/publish something. Respect.