Sprinters at the Tour (poll included)

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Gaviria -> Groene -> Sagan..
Demare..
ps; Mathews might have a shot at yellow depending on how well Sunweb goes in the ttt and with the inter bonus so i guess he will be trying hard...

If they’re close after the ttt, he’ll be all in to Quimper and Mur de Bretagne. Thing is, he’ll be trying to bring Yates with him, so the question will be how does he square his own ambitions there, with the ambitions of Yates, who could also conceivably win either of those stages and claim yellow.

Yates and Matthews haven’t been on the same team since 2016

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Gaviria -> Groene -> Sagan..
Demare..
ps; Mathews might have a shot at yellow depending on how well Sunweb goes in the ttt and with the inter bonus so i guess he will be trying hard...

If they’re close after the ttt, he’ll be all in to Quimper and Mur de Bretagne. Thing is, he’ll be trying to bring Yates with him, so the question will be how does he square his own ambitions there, with the ambitions of Yates, who could also conceivably win either of those stages and claim yellow.

Yates and Matthews haven’t been on the same team since 2016

Also think you'll have a few others with stage ambitions on those stages as well with Alaphilippe, Sagan, and Valverde.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Gaviria -> Groene -> Sagan..
Demare..
ps; Mathews might have a shot at yellow depending on how well Sunweb goes in the ttt and with the inter bonus so i guess he will be trying hard...

If they’re close after the ttt, he’ll be all in to Quimper and Mur de Bretagne. Thing is, he’ll be trying to bring Yates with him, so the question will be how does he square his own ambitions there, with the ambitions of Yates, who could also conceivably win either of those stages and claim yellow.

Yates and Matthews haven’t been on the same team since 2016

Furry nuff, I completely spaced on that one.

Apart from the stage win part, the same principle applies to him working with Dumoulin, of course.

Also think you'll have a few others with stage ambitions on those stages as well with Alaphilippe, Sagan, and Valverde.

Well yes, I think it goes without saying that Matthews won't be the only rider trying to win any of those stages. But of the sprinters, he'll have a genuine chance. And might have a shot at the yellow too.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Software really can't handle multi-vote poll, can it?

It really ought to be able to recognise that multiple answers are possible, and tell us that 95% (or whatever it is) of those replying think Gaviria will get a stage, 91% Sagan, etc. That is the information that the question invites us to expect.

Or at least report the number of respondents, so that we can calculate it for ourselves.

 

[Cinemaniak]

Greipel**
You can never rule out good old Greipel, but his last real win has been over a year. He's still very ambitious, fast and experienced, so if anything, that makes him a contender. Nothing else really.
Cavendish***
Will get a stage-win this Tour, but can't shake the fact that he lacks the real topspeed he had two years ago. He isn't the most confident of sprinters right now and confidence is pretty important to win stages.
Gaviria****
Perhaps one of the fastest at the moment, together with Groenewegen and I'm pretty sure he'll get 2 stage wins or more. We know he can beat all of the top guys, but the only problem is that I haven't see him doing it on European soil this year. He doesn't seem to have the same bike handling skills you see Groenewegen and Sagan have. Perhaps that it's his lack of experience on European (narrow) roads. It's also the first time he's up against this opposition in the Tour, very different from the Giro. Also... Quick-Step is going to be his best advantage over his competition
Matthews*
The best climbing sprinter and he will be battling for victory against Valverde, Sagan and v. Avermaet. Top 5 maximum in the bunch sprints + he'll be working for Dumoulin.
Sagan****
No words needed to describe his chances. He can finish stages in many different ways, but isn't always the fastest.
Kittel ***
Has probably his most difficult start of his career this season, still able to beat Sagan twice in T-A. Should be good for a stage win when Katusha's plan all comes together. He has a great lead-out with Pollitt and Zabel.
Groenewegen****
Most promising sprinter, with Gaviria and very powerful. He's ready to win more than 1 stages this TdF and doesn't lack to experience in the previous editions. Proven he can beat the likes of Kittel, Demare, Gaviria and Sagan. No doubt he can be the man this TdF.
Kristoff**
There's always a stage when we see Kristoff at his best. I'm expecting him to grab one this year as well, when the race is to hard for the others.
Demare***
French hope! He's able to step up his a-game and beat faster guys like Groenewegen, Gaviria & Sagan. Plus, he's got a team all focused around him, so he will be up there for sure. Two or three stage wins? Possible.
Degenkolb*
Not a serious competitor for a while now. Has never been the fastest sprinter, but I won't rule him out for the Roubaix stage. Perhaps he can go in the attack? Should be his best chance.

**** Gaviria, Groenewegen, Sagan
***Demare, Cavendish, Kittel
**Kristoff, Greipel
*Matthews, Degenkolb,

 

[Anderis]

Re:

**** Gaviria, Groenewegen, Sagan
***Demare, Cavendish, Kittel
**Kristoff, Greipel
*Matthews, Degenkolb,

Funny. Yesterday I was thinking about it and tried to put them in order from the most likely to the least likely to win a stage. I've ended up with something almost identical to this. The only difference is that I would swap Matthews with Kristoff.

 

[DNP-Old]

Why is Colbrelli being left out of this?

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Why is Colbrelli being left out of this?

Because there are only 10 spots and I decided to go with Degenkolb over him. When I first started this post a week or so ago it was even harder since it included Ewan and Bouhanni.

My order from most likely to win a stage to least likely:
Gaviria
Sagan
Kittel
Groenewegen
Matthews
Greipel
Démare
Kristoff
Cavendish
Degenkolb / Colbrelli

 

[SKSemtex]

Another question is how many of them survive the first half. Too many fast sprinters with not quite perfect trains jumping from one wheel to another to get to yellow.

Carnage. :surprised:

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Who needs trains. I've seen Groenewegen go from 30th position with 1km to go to win the stage by a large margin in Slovenia. And that was in a pretty neat sprinting field.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Most likely to last likely imo:

***** Groenewegen, Gaviria, Sagan
**** Demare, Kittel
*** Cavendish, Matthews
** Colbrelli, Greipel
* Hagen, Degenkolb, Kristoff

 

[krakenKE]

Voted for Gaviria, Sagan, Groenewegen and Demare. I would love to see Cav and Greipel to take at least one stage but I think they will not be able to do so with this field of sprinters. Kittel can win at least one stage but I do think Groenewegen is the sprinter to beat in flat finishes. Sagan should grab at least one hilly stage and a Roubaix stage. I do not know what to expect from Gaviria. He is clearly one of the fastest but the question is if he can stay on his bike. If he can, he will grab at least 2, but I do not think he will challenge Sagan in the green jersey competition. Matthews is not fast enough to win a flat sprint and he will have to beat Sagan, Valverde and GVA to win one of the hilly stages which will be tough.

Of course this prediction may be obsolete after some crashes and withdrawals. I hope nothing serious happens and all fast men will stay healthy after first week.

 

[del1962]

Voted Groenewegen, would love to see Cav do well, just can't see it though, Cav proove me wrong

 

[jaylew]

Re:

I voted for Gaviria, Kittel, Bling, Sagan, Groenewegen, and the Gorilla. I went back and forth on Greipel but I think he and his team are so experienced that he'll get one.

Looks like we got it right with Gav getting the most votes. After one stage, I like my picks except maybe Greipel. Not giving up on him just yet but where was he? I'm not sure what would be worse, not seeing him in the final Ks at all
or seeing him there and then watching him go backwards like Cav did.

 

[Unchained]

Demare was on the ground yesterday

 

[Jspear]

Will anyone be able to beat Sagan in the sprints?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

maybe. Kristoff, Demare and Degenkolb have to fight a lot less men for position

said before the Tour I'd see Groenewegen would win 4 stages. He won half but then down to injury.. could've been worse of a guess.

 

[loge1884]

personally I would second a new rule, stripping everyone not-finishing a stage race from all results (except when having to abandon due to a crash or for serious medical (non "clinic") reasons) .... at the TOUR, Cavendish would then be down to 22 stages (minus 8), Petacchi down to 2 (minus 4) and Cipollini down to 0 (minus 12) .... still remember those days, when Cipo was posting photos of him lounging on a beach after abandoning the Tour prior to entering mountain stages ....

 

[trucido]

Re:

personally I would second a new rule, stripping everyone not-finishing a stage race from all results (except when having to abandon due to a crash or for serious medical (non "clinic") reasons) .... at the TOUR, Cavendish would then be down to 22 stages (minus 8), Petacchi down to 2 (minus 4) and Cipollini down to 0 (minus 12) .... still remember those days, when Cipo was posting photos of him lounging on a beach after abandoning the Tour prior to entering mountain stages ....

Wouldn't work. riders like Cipollini would abandon from the Tour every year after winning a few stages citing "serious" medical ailments.

 

[Finn84]

The thing which would have small effect but not taking any achievements away - riders who abandon would be awarded half points in UCI World Tour for the stage achievements.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

personally I would second a new rule, stripping everyone not-finishing a stage race from all results (except when having to abandon due to a crash or for serious medical (non "clinic") reasons) .... at the TOUR, Cavendish would then be down to 22 stages (minus 8), Petacchi down to 2 (minus 4) and Cipollini down to 0 (minus 12) .... still remember those days, when Cipo was posting photos of him lounging on a beach after abandoning the Tour prior to entering mountain stages ....

Wouldn't work. riders like Cipollini would abandon from the Tour every year after winning a few stages citing "serious" medical ailments.

How is it any different to sprinters only riding the first 10-12 days of the Giro as preparation for the TDF?

You also forget Cipollini used to turn up to the Tour having already finished (and usually dominated) the Giro. 42 stage wins and three points classifications take a toll, especially on top of a full classics season. Pettachi was somewhat similar in not feeling obliged to make the Tour the focus of their entire season.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

The thing which would have small effect but not taking any achievements away - riders who abandon would be awarded half points in UCI World Tour for the stage achievements.

I would agree with this, but maybe tweak it; riders who finish a stage race get a 10-20% bonus on top of all their points accumulated during the race. So not penalizing anyone for not finishing, but rather giving them an incentive to finish.

Effectively this will be treated the same either way by teams/DS’s/sponsors etc, but it’ll look nicer from the outside.

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

Greipel**
You can never rule out good old Greipel, but his last real win has been over a year. He's still very ambitious, fast and experienced, so if anything, that makes him a contender. Nothing else really.
Cavendish***
Will get a stage-win this Tour, but can't shake the fact that he lacks the real topspeed he had two years ago. He isn't the most confident of sprinters right now and confidence is pretty important to win stages.
Gaviria****
Perhaps one of the fastest at the moment, together with Groenewegen and I'm pretty sure he'll get 2 stage wins or more. We know he can beat all of the top guys, but the only problem is that I haven't see him doing it on European soil this year. He doesn't seem to have the same bike handling skills you see Groenewegen and Sagan have. Perhaps that it's his lack of experience on European (narrow) roads. It's also the first time he's up against this opposition in the Tour, very different from the Giro. Also... Quick-Step is going to be his best advantage over his competition
Matthews*
The best climbing sprinter and he will be battling for victory against Valverde, Sagan and v. Avermaet. Top 5 maximum in the bunch sprints + he'll be working for Dumoulin.
Sagan****
No words needed to describe his chances. He can finish stages in many different ways, but isn't always the fastest.
Kittel ***
Has probably his most difficult start of his career this season, still able to beat Sagan twice in T-A. Should be good for a stage win when Katusha's plan all comes together. He has a great lead-out with Pollitt and Zabel.
Groenewegen****
Most promising sprinter, with Gaviria and very powerful. He's ready to win more than 1 stages this TdF and doesn't lack to experience in the previous editions. Proven he can beat the likes of Kittel, Demare, Gaviria and Sagan. No doubt he can be the man this TdF.
Kristoff**
There's always a stage when we see Kristoff at his best. I'm expecting him to grab one this year as well, when the race is to hard for the others.
Demare***
French hope! He's able to step up his a-game and beat faster guys like Groenewegen, Gaviria & Sagan. Plus, he's got a team all focused around him, so he will be up there for sure. Two or three stage wins? Possible.
Degenkolb*
Not a serious competitor for a while now. Has never been the fastest sprinter, but I won't rule him out for the Roubaix stage. Perhaps he can go in the attack? Should be his best chance.

**** Gaviria, Groenewegen, Sagan
***Demare, Cavendish, Kittel
**Kristoff, Greipel
*Matthews, Degenkolb,

Good call on that!

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

A real pity Ewan isn’t there. In retrospect he seems even harder done by. He would have been a real contender in the very open sprints before the Alps and, given his climbing this year, would have been an even bigger threat in those after. Instead Mitchelton have nothing from the Tour. Maybe Impey or Nieve can rescue their race with a stage, but that’s all they can really hope for. They bet everything on Yates and screwed over Ewan and Mezgec in the process.

 

[yaco]

Actually i think Ewan would have got through the mountains OK as he is one rider who paces himself to just finish within the time limit. His biggest danger would have been surviving the time cut in the PR stage as he sucks on cobbles. He was a chance to win a stage at this TDF as some of the slightly uphill finishes suit his skill set. ANYway he is riding the Vuelta if he shows form in Ride London and the Tour of Poland.