Last year Cav was very close to winning the jersey. His placements:Lexman said:do you think a sprinter can take the red points jersey, given the parcours?
or wil it be a climber?
In the end J-Rod won the jersey based on his uphill/MTF sprint skills.
This year there are fewer flat sprint stages (3-4 in total), but we don't have a dominant uphill/MTF sprinter in the field imo, so the competition might still be open. I think Degenkolb (in Vuelta '12 form) will have a great chance to nab the jersey. Cav might have to deliver 4 wins to be a serious contender.
Also bonus secs on all stages typically leads to GC contenders fighting more often for stage wins.