Stage 17: Tirano – Lugano 134 kms

[Miburo]

So which GC guy will lose time now?

Stage 17: Tirano – Lugano 134 kms

Start time: 13:55, May 27th

Analysis:
The only stage going outside Italian territory is a short transitional stage, very favorable to breakaways. The only realy difficulty of the day is right after the start: the climb to Teglio (GPM3, 7.4 kms at 6.5%), will promote the formation of a strong breakaway. The rest of the route is mostly flat, with the exception of the uncategorized ascent to Croce di Menaggio (2.5 kms at 6.8%), and a little bump with 5-6% slopes at around 6 kms to go, just after entering Swiss soil.

Expectations:
Breakaway wins and peloton at 15 minutes. I really don't think there will be sprinters in the mood to contest this stage.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

This stage could be raced hard all the way.

Contador must be tested after his effort on stage 16, but who will do it?

Also JVDB, lets see the ITT skills put into action please.

 

[staubsauger]

If there's a break. Any chance Boem will try to strike once again? Sky would chase immediately in that case. Could be hecticated until finally a break is allowed to fly free!

 

[thequestionmark]

Adam Hansen to win the stage.

 

[Sasquatch]

Break will take this. Trek and Lampre won't have enough firepower to bring it back. I expect at least 10 riders in the break.

 

[DBotero]

Everybody is dead after today stage so nobody will chase.Breakaway ftw!
Grosu might target this stage cause he was pissed that he's got only 5th place on the Jesolo stage but since his team is so weak i don't see it happening.

 

[Flamin]

The climb in the beginning makes it tricky to predict. More riders might believe the break has a chance and give it a go. On the other hand, Lampre, Giant and Trek would be stupid to drag themselves up those mountains just for the final stage and let this one slip. Sky should work too. Then you have Orica but I guess they might opt for a break.

 

[MotorRouleur]

The profile shouts breakaway, but the 134km distance for a 3rd week of a GT is really, really short (it'll be over in 3 hrs). And, most of the following day is easy; the first 75% is flat. Weather won't be a factor, sunny and warm in the valleys.

I call a (reduced) bunch sprint, because for many sprinters, this is last chance. It's already been a hard Giro and the mtns of Fri & Sat will drain them. Maybe a Gilbert flyer in the last kms.

 

[jmdirt]

Aru will try to sneak into the break!

 

[Red Rick]

I take it this is the flattest way to Lugano they could find? Sprint it is. Hopefully Contador can enjoy an easy ride home

 

[Gigs_98]

This giro taught me that there is a 100% chance something will happen to a gc guy

 

[ILovecycling]

Lars Bak FTW!!!

hint: GGTG

 

[Flamin]

Re:

The climb in the beginning makes it tricky to predict. More riders might believe the break has a chance and give it a go. On the other hand, Lampre, Giant and Trek would be stupid to drag themselves up those mountains just for the final stage and let this one slip. Sky should work too. Then you have Orica but I guess they might opt for a break.

Oh right, Matthews is already gone home of course

 

[SafeBet]

Silvan Dillier.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re:

Lars Bak FTW!!!

hint: GGTG

Lobato. He´ll be in the break and win with ease. And if not in the break, he´ll win the sprint... with ease ofc.

 

[Eshnar]

Keeping the momentum of this Giro, I'd say 70 riders breakaway and win by 45 minutes. All the favorites out of time limit.
The forum crashes at the news that the jury will let them continue.

 

[Swifty's Cakes]

I'm quite tempted to actually do some work tomorrow afternoon.

 

[MatParker117]

Re:

Break will take this. Trek and Lampre won't have enough firepower to bring it back. I expect at least 10 riders in the break.

Sky will chase depending on the breaks composition.

 

[MotorRouleur]

This giro taught me that there is a 100% chance something will happen to a gc guy

Yes, there were a lot of group crashes, not just in week 1 (which is always nervous), but also in week 2 (because of the fast racing). But those are over. And, weather will be great on Thurs, and is looking ok for Fri/Sat mountains (maybe some showers).

What I have noticed is a higher than average ~mechanicals~ for GC riders, mostly punctures at bad times.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Lars Bak FTW!!!

hint: GGTG

Lobato. He´ll be in the break and win with ease. And if not in the break, he´ll win the sprint... with ease ofc.

This 100%.

 

[Velolover2]

Kangert from a break if he is allowed to do so.

 

[T-Nielsen]

Re: Re:

Break will take this. Trek and Lampre won't have enough firepower to bring it back. I expect at least 10 riders in the break.

Sky will chase depending on the breaks composition.

If Viviani is dropped on the first climb they may not have enough kms to bring it back together. That goes for all the "heavy" sprinters really. The first climb will probably be done really fast so if a strong break goes it will likely hold.

 

[Velolover2]

Please don't chase today, Tinkoff-Saxo.

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

Judging by the rest of the Giro, Contador to crash out of the race on the descent of the first climb, Kruijswijk to win the stage by 8 minutes to take pink.

 

[Squirbos_19]

Adam Hansen to win the stage either from the morning break or via a late flyer, or maybe both together.

Seeing as nearly all the GC contenders have had bad luck so far whose turn is it today?