Stage 17: Tirano – Lugano 134 kms

[movingtarget]

You would think after what happened yesterday, the break has to have a good chance today. There is no reason for Saxo to chase unless someone dangerous in in there and usually there isn't otherwise they would not let the break go. I can understand Hesjedal's frustrations with some of the tactics. It's not a stage for Astana to apply the screws further but so far the sprinter's teams have not had the strength usually to chase down the break and if Astana or Saxo don't chase the break stays away. It's been a hard race.

Even though Contador has a good lead, he would have wanted an easier race before the Tour but the circumstances have made it hard, not so much his rivals even though Astana have ensured that there have not been many easy days and by doing that they seemed to have burnt out their team leader. Maybe the rumours of Aru having some stomach trouble have been played down as well. Landa is the only one who can put some time into Contador now and it won't be enough unless Contador has more misfortune.

 

[wirral]

The break has to win. But which break? The original breakaway following the categorised early climb on the riders who will try to form a secondary break at Menaggio with 30 km to go. Gilbert will certainly try. Felline will show interest. But the day will be taken by one of the remaining 8 Bardiani riders. It could be any of them. Wheels within wheels and all that.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Lars Bak FTW!!!

hint: GGTG

Lobato. He´ll be in the break and win with ease. And if not in the break, he´ll win the sprint... with ease ofc.

This 100%.

Nahh, he is too tired

 

[Tank Engine]

Battaglin's last chance. Hansen will fancy this profile as well. Since Greipel and Matthews have gone home and the monster day yesterday, there will be a weaker chase, once it gets organised after the climb. I'll go with Hansen.

 

[Sasquatch]

I highly doubt that Felline will do anything today. They want to set it all up for Nizzolo.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I highly doubt that this will be a sprint. Not enough firepower among the sprinter teams. Lars Bak FTW!

 

[MatParker117]

Re:

I highly doubt that this will be a sprint. Not enough firepower among the sprinter teams. Lars Bak FTW!

Sky, Lotto NL, Giant, Lampre, Movistar & Trek. This should be a sprint.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: Re:

I highly doubt that this will be a sprint. Not enough firepower among the sprinter teams. Lars Bak FTW!

Sky, Lotto NL, Giant, Lampre, Movistar & Trek. This should be a sprint.

Movistar won't chase. Lobato won't be able to beat Viviani/Nizzolo/Modolo. No way will they work today.

Lotto want to focus on Kruijswijk so they won't do any work today. If Kruijswijk wants that blue jersey, then they need their riders for tomorrow and Saturday to keep the break in check. So they won't be working. They will probably send someone up the road.

 

[Jalgratas95]

Re:

Kangert from a break if he is allowed to do so.

I was thinking the same thing. Kangert didn't have to work on Mortirolo yesterday because when the climb started Kangert wasn't there. Probably was caught up somewhere before.

But I don't think winner will be from break. I think peleton will ride hard and people who want to win try to get away in Menaggio (30km before end) and Kangert who can climb and is a very good TT rider may be able to hold the advantage if he might get one.

Just my humble and amateur prediciton.

But maybe it's just my bias because I'm Estonian.

 

[Hakkapelit]

I think Veikkanen will be in a break an win the sprint for 5th.

 

[King Boonen]

I'm going to say sprint. I think there'll be enough teams interested in getting their big guys back on to shut down the breakaway.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

I'm going to say sprint. I think there'll be enough teams interested in getting their big guys back on to shut down the breakaway.

This. Orica Greenedge never helps the chase anyway, so Matthews out doesn't make any difference. Nizzolo must be dying for a stage win (and the points that follow), so Trek will definitely chase hard. Lotto NL (Hofland), SKY (Viviani), Lampre and Giant (Mezgec) should also have an interest in a sprint finish.

 

[Carstenbf]

Never been as confident in a break-away win as today.

 

[jens_attacks]

breakaway. tiralongo gets his second stage win

 

[Sasquatch]

Re:

I'm going to say sprint. I think there'll be enough teams interested in getting their big guys back on to shut down the breakaway.

Teams will be interested, yes, but no one will have the legs to chase.

Expect 10-20 riders to go clear on the first climb. I'm leaning more towards 20. By the time the sprinters get back after being dropped the break will have a massive advantage. Going to be hard for tired legs to chase.

Lampre and Lotto NL will do the smart thing and put someone in a break.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

I highly doubt that this will be a sprint. Not enough firepower among the sprinter teams. Lars Bak FTW!

Yes bro! Cmon Lars!!!

 

[Stilletto]

Its a short stage i reckon Tinkoff might have some problems controlling this...
Bedlam from the go as so many teams dont really have any GC riders except Tinkoff, Katusha,LottoNL, Movistar and Astana.
A couple of "bigger" riders could sneak in.
Anyway 20 man breakaway
Containing ;
Boem, Cunego, Grosu, Beppu, Armee
Battaglin, Ulissi, Herrada, Reza, Finetto
Lulu, Grmay, Atapuma, Betancur, Kiryienka
Cardoso, Gavazzi, Szmyd, Paterski, Herrada

 

[Happy dude]

Kiryienka for the 60km solo win out of the break

 

[Stilletto]

What time is take off?

 

[wirral]

Re:

What time is take off?

Now

 

[King Boonen]

Wonder if Astana are going to make the climb hard..?

 

[metaCYCLE]

Re:

Its a short stage i reckon Tinkoff might have some problems controlling this...
Bedlam from the go as so many teams dont really have any GC riders except Tinkoff, Katusha,LottoNL, Movistar and Astana.
A couple of "bigger" riders could sneak in.
Anyway 20 man breakaway
Containing ;
Boem, Cunego, Grosu, Beppu, Armee
Battaglin, Ulissi, Herrada, Reza, Finetto
Lulu, Grmay, Atapuma, Betancur, Kiryienka
Cardoso, Gavazzi, Szmyd, Paterski, Herrada

I think Nippo will keep Grosu for the eventuality of a mass sprint and send some other dude up the road. Also I'll throw in Tvetcov in your breakaway group. Quite strong TTer.

 

[Sasquatch]

Dull start

Not many attacks on the climb. Looks like a break of 3, maybe 4 will get away.

Lame

 

[MatParker117]

Sprint today.

 

[ILovecycling]

Any teams to pull to bring them back?