Stage 21: May 27th Milano- Milano 30k ITT

[will10]

So in summary we haven't got a clue which order in the top 4 will end up in

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Rodriguez
Hesjedal
De Gendt
Scarponi

 

[cineteq]

Purito has a 31 second advantage.
Purito has the maglia rosa on his back.
Purito has a very technical course with plenty of 90 degree turns that he can accelerate out of.
Purito has a Hesjedal, not a great TTer chasing him.
Purito has the benefit of time checks.
Purito HAS A HISTORY OF BOMBING IN TTs.
Can Purito do it?
I doubt it.

Very well put.
Yet you forgot rule #1.
Never assume future performance based on historical data.

 

[cineteq]

ITT parcours has been reduced to 28Km due to road conditions.
http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/eventos_online-ficha.asp?id=232

Purito has made more Italians friends than we think

 

[Libertine Seguros]

What is the best results Hesjedal and Rodriguez ever had in a ITT?

Because also Hesjedal never showed anything really decent, I think?

Rodríguez:
6th, País Vasco 2012 TT (18,9km)(Hesjedal was 52nd, but had nothing to fight for)
7th, Vuelta 2008 TT (17,1km MTT)
7th, País Vasco 2010 TT (22,0km)
10th, Giro d'Italia 2011 TT (Nevegal MTT)
11th, Ruta del Sol 2009 prologue (7,0km)
13th, Tour of Oman 2011 TT (18,5km)
13th, Volta a Catalunya 2010 prologue (3,6km)
15th, Euskal Bizikleta 2003 TT (16,0km)

As far as I can tell, Purito has never been top 20 in his career in a TT of over 25km.

Hesjedal:
10th, Tour de Romandie 2005 prologue (3,4km)
11th, Tour de France 2008 TT (53,0km)
11th, Tour of California 2007 prologue (3,1km)
12th, Volta a Catalunya 2010 prologue (3,6km)
13th, Criterium International 2011 TT (7,0km)
13th, Tour de Georgia 2007 TT (30,4km)
14th, Tour of California 2010 TT (33,6km)
15th, Volta a Catalunya 2006 prologue (12,6km)
16th, Dauphiné Libéré 2006 prologue (4,1km)
17th, Tour of California 2007 TT (23,4km)
18th, Giro d'Italia 2005 TT (1,1km)
19th, Tirreno-Adriatico 2008 TT (36,0km)
20th, Tour de Suisse 2009 TT (39,0km)

I'm not really sure where the "Hesjedal is so much better in the TT than all the other contenders so they need a couple of minutes on him" school of thought came from, to be honest. He's solid, but nothing too special. However, he's much, much, much more proven over this kind of distance than Purito is, while it's not a long enough TT for him to lose it to Scarponi or de Gendt unless he has a really poor day.

 

[El Pistolero]

Time trial has been shortened by 2 miles.

 

[Panda Claws]

Good for Rodriguez, bad for Hesjedal, even worse for De Gendt

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So? Hesjedal wasn't trying there and in the ToS last year, which was actually on a more similar distance as today (30km), Hesjedal (27th in tha ITT)lost less than 40 seconds on De Gendt (8th)...

So he wasn't trying to catch the two guys right in front of him to get a top 15 spot or trying to keep away from the guy right behind him?

And if i remember correctly, the ToS isn't a 3 week race. Also i don't think Hesjedal was exposed to the same level of stress and pressure. I'll say it again, De Gendt is known for formidable recuperation. That said, Hesjedal is in his best form, so if there ever was a time he would not be troubled by De Gendt, it would be now. But the arguments you use here are void in my opinion.

 

[Red Rick]

Time trial has been shortened by 2 miles.

Cav would rather have a 1k epilogue

 

[Walkman]

So tell me again.. Why is that Hesjedal all of a sudden is considered such a great time trialist? In the Tour 2010, when he arguably was in the form of his life, he finished 52nd, 6'40 down on Cancellara.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'll do a good time trial, but that is because of his form and motivation more than it is because of his ITT skills.

Yeah, because the 2010 Tour is the best way to measure a rider time trial capabilities. Just ignore the enormous headwind the late starting GC-guys faced...

 

[Red Rick]

In last year TdSuisse TT, de Gendt put about 1 minute 10 into Hesjedal over 32km

 

[wirral]

Now reduced to 28 km.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Katyusha tweet that Rodríguez hit a barrier during his course recon. Not an auspicious start.

 

[GazelleFormula]

If they shorten the course to <5k, Cav can still pick up his red jersey

 

[plooton]

Not only Hesjedal is serious threat for Rodriguez, but I await De Gendt and Scarponi finally will be very close to him. Anyway, I take Hesjedal's victory for sure.

 

[dlwssonic]

 

[dlwssonic]

I hope ryder gets the Giro victory I think he really deserves it.
Thomas should get a podium too.

 

[Lanark]

So tell me again.. Why is that Hesjedal all of a sudden is considered such a great time trialist? In the Tour 2010, when he arguably was in the form of his life, he finished 52nd, 6'40 down on Cancellara.
.

Uh yeah, but the results of that time trial were highly influenced by changing wind conditions. Comparing his time to that of Cancellara is useless. In that 52km time trial he lost 50 seconds to Samuel Sanchez, and less than a minute to Contador. The only real GC guy who took more than a minute on him was Menchov, who rode the time trial of his life and took over 2.50 on Hesjedal. If he performs similair today, he'll certainly win the GC.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Uh yeah, but the results of that time trial were highly influenced by changing wind conditions. Comparing his time to that of Cancellara is useless. In that 52km time trial he lost 50 seconds to Samuel Sanchez, and less than a minute to Contador. The only real GC guy who took more than a minute on him was Menchov, who rode the time trial of his life and took over 2.50 on Hesjedal. If he performs similair today, he'll certainly win the GC.

Nonsense. The TT of Menchov's life was Cinque Terre. That was incredible.

 

[Lanark]

Nonsense. The TT of Menchov's life was Cinque Terre. That was incredible.

Maybe because it was much more important for his overall Giro win, but he 'only' took 20 seconds on Leipheimer there, in the 2010 Tour ITT he absolutely devastated the competition. Putting practically everyone two minutes or more back, from a physical pov it was his best performance of his live.

 

[will10]

Phinney rocking the UCI illegal socks

 

[Sophistic]

uarggg, have to go to a wedding, what a stupid tradition

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

So he wasn't trying to catch the two guys right in front of him to get a top 15 spot or trying to keep away from the guy right behind him?

And if i remember correctly, the ToS isn't a 3 week race. Also i don't think Hesjedal was exposed to the same level of stress and pressure. I'll say it again, De Gendt is known for formidable recuperation. That said, Hesjedal is in his best form, so if there ever was a time he would not be troubled by De Gendt, it would be now. But the arguments you use here are void in my opinion.

And Hesjedal has not shown the same great recuperation? Remember tour 2010 when he was at his strongest in the 3rd week on the Tourmalet and again this Giro.

You are getting your hopes up for nothing. There is a less than 2% chance De Gendt makes up 1'40 on Hesjedal. And you base that on 1 ITT as far as I can tell.
Now who's arguments are void??

 

[El Pistolero]

Obviously he won't win, only 28km. Who knows, they might scrap the time trial all together and hand over the maglia rosa to the first Italian.

But in 5 out of 6 times De Gendt has beaten Hesjedal. Hesjedal is about the same level as Andy Schleck in the time trial.

 

[Gregory]

Maybe because it was much more important for his overall Giro win, but he 'only' took 20 seconds on Leipheimer there, in the 2010 Tour ITT he absolutely devastated the competition. Putting practically everyone two minutes or more back, from a physical pov it was his best performance of his live.

That's true. This performance doesn't receive the credit it deserves because of two factors:
1. Menchov didn't win the Tour, contrary to 2009 Giro
2. He didn't win the Time Trial, because of starting in much more difficult conditions, then the early riders, with the strong wind blowing from his front. If they would start in the same conditions, Menchov would probably put at least half a minute into Cancellara, which is entirely possible given what Contador did to him a year ago.