Tour de France Stage 6: Bayeux – Vire-Normandie (201.5k)

[Roku]

If you have a couple of euros to spend, place a bet for Dylan Teuns in yellow after today's stage. I would bet it's either him or VDP in yellow today.

 

[Red Rick]

Today's finish is perfect for a Pogistomp, but I don't think UAE will chase and Alpecin should probably put Van der Poel in the break instead, trying to take back the overall lead.

I think we will get a decently size break fighting for the stage with Onley winning, its a great finish for him.

Onley is 11th on GC he ain't getting in no break

 

[search]

Onley is 11th on GC he ain't getting in no break

even Vauquelin from 3rd aims for the break, and both of them have no chance to hang on on the big climbs anyway.

But yeah, normally UAE is not the kind of team that likes to give away the lead, and particularly not to a decent rider.

 

[Red Rick]

even Vauquelin from 3rd aims for the break, and both of them have no chance to hang on on the big climbs anyway.

But yeah, normally UAE is not the kind of team that likes to give away the lead, and particularly not to a decent rider.

If they want to give it away, I suggest they take a certain washed compatriot off the UAE blacklist.

 

[fenns]

betting today reflects the good chance for a break to succeed

Pog 25%
MVDP 15%
Gregoire 7%
then lots on 2-4%

if this was a one-day race Pog would win but it isn't

 

[Red Rick]

Looking at the final profile again it would actually shock me if Alpecin aren't gonna control for MvdP.

Should be a big difference between 600m 10% and 1km 10%.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Looking at the final profile again it would actually shock me if Alpecin aren't gonna control for MvdP.

Should be a big difference between 600m 10% and 1km 10%.

It's more like 700 m @ 10% today vs 800 m @ 11% on stage 4. Plus this stage has healthy amount of climbing and the most difficult section is at the finish this time (Pog won't have to sprint on a shallow terrain). This is basically shortened Liege, tomorrow will suit MVP better.

 

[Valv.Piti]

It's more like 700 m @ 10% today vs 800 m @ 11% on stage 4. Plus this stage has healthy amount of climbing and the most difficult section is at the finish this time (Pog won't have to sprint on a shallow terrain). This is basically shortened Liege, tomorrow will suit MVP better.

Or an easier Fleche Wallone. I cant decide if i think MVDP chances are best in a break or from the peloton. On paper it should be in the break, but lots of weird stuff happens in a big break in TdF, so it might unironically be against Pog even though he's definitely the underdog.

 

[Red Rick]

It's more like 700 m @ 10% today vs 800 m @ 11% on stage 4. Plus this stage has healthy amount of climbing and the most difficult section is at the finish this time (Pog won't have to sprint on a shallow terrain).

Stage 4 climb was a fair bit longer with a foot that wasn't counted, and UAE made it very hard on the climbs before that. Onley did about 8W/kg for 3 minutesAs pointed out, statistically this is very similar to Monte Berico, which had elite murito specialists Pedersen and washed up Van Aert deleting the GC field.

This hill doesn't really have a false foot, and the penultimate one isn't that hard.

I don't think MvdP is the favorite, but I could easily see why Alpecin prefer to try it that way than try the breakaway.

 

[pelotonIQ]

I'll be very disappointed if UAE doesn't put the pressure on Jonas today to test him after yesterday's bad TT.

 

[Rackham]

I'll be very disappointed if UAE doesn't put the pressure on Jonas today to test him after yesterday's bad TT.

Other than dropping the hammer by riding like maniacs on the front through road furniture and other narrow passes, I think this stage is not really ideal for creating proper gaps. And Vingegaard already showed he could respond on a punchy route.

 

[search]

Other than dropping the hammer by riding like maniacs on the front through road furniture and other narrow passes, I think this stage is not really ideal for creating proper gaps. And Vingegaard already showed he could respond on a punchy route.

on his podcast, Denk assumed that Vingegaard yesterday paid the price for putting up a new one minute record the day before, because he likely went over the limit to follow Pogi. If that's true, we may see a bit more controlled effort today.

 

[Red Rick]

on his podcast, Denk assumed that Vingegaard yesterday paid the price for putting up a new one minute record the day before, because he likely went over the limit to follow Pogi. If that's true, we may see a bit more controlled effort today.

There's just so much silliness in that statement.

These are literally the fittest guys in the world, the idea that one of them wouldn't recover from a 2-3 minute max effort is utterly laughable.

And if anyone watched the finish of that stage that happened 5 minutes later, he clearly recovered because he easily got 3rd in the sprint and almost beat MvdP for 2nd.

 

[Red Rick]

Or an easier Fleche Wallone. I cant decide if i think MVDP chances are best in a break or from the peloton. On paper it should be in the break, but lots of weird stuff happens in a big break in TdF, so it might unironically be against Pog even though he's definitely the underdog.

We've seen this situation many times on such parcourses. MvdP is definitely not gonna be favored by going in the break because nobody will work with him.

 

[scribers]

Vingo has never really raced the way he has this week. So it would be a credible explanation for not showing up yesterday.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

The stage starting in his home, today is the day for a huge Kevin VauqueWin

 

[noob]

The stage starting in his home, today is the day for a huge Kevin VauqueWin

He must have a huge house!!! 🏠

 

[Peyroteo94]

Vingo has never really raced the way he has this week. So it would be a credible explanation for not showing up yesterday.

He can recover better than anyone else so no.

 

[Didinho]

Pogacar will suffer from the heat, having to wear three different jerseys.

Apparently he got 4.

 

[Cycling111]

The stage starting in his home, today is the day for a huge Kevin VauqueWin

Difficult from the peloton.

 

[scribers]

He can recover better than anyone else so no.

It’s a classics oriented race strategy Vingo is peddling in this week. An odd place for a GC battle to occur because pogi races this way. Vingo historically races a Kj oriented long game with a team strategy, with a single burst on 2-3 decisive climbs, then is curtains down ITT in a second half of the GT.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The stage starting in his home, today is the day for a huge Kevin VauqueWin

So maybe the break will not prevail. Arkea will work! Always like a gift for his tremendous TT.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It’s a classics oriented race strategy Vingo is peddling in this week. An odd place for a GC battle to occur because pogi races this way. Vingo historically races a Kj oriented long game with a team strategy, with a single burst on 2-3 decisive climbs, then is curtains down ITT in a second half of the GT.

I don't agree. He made an all out effort of less than 2 minutes two days ago. The day before he did 120 watts during the stage.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Vingo has never really raced the way he has this week. So it would be a credible explanation for not showing up yesterday.

The difference is mainly that instead of him following 10 accelerations from Pogi, they've made 5 each.

 

[scribers]

It’s like not accepting why sprinters can’t do well in other disciplines.