Stage 8: Station des Rousses - Morzine-Avoriaz 189km

[hfer07]

I'm not sure if Contador is going to put his stamp on the race this early, actually. He's already said that he expects the race to be decided in the Pyrenees.

Agreed-but he'll try to close the time gaps to CEvans & ASchleck

 

[Barrus]

Anyone who really wants to break open the GC and gain a significant amount of time should do well to already attack, or at least really up the pace at the Col de La Ramaz, nice and steep and a good chance for someone who can also decent descent or better to gain some extra time in the descents, Sammy Sanchez would do well to do that.

But probably no-one will do anything until we get to the final climb, where the favourites won't attack until the last 5-10 k before the finish.

 

[Ryaguas]

guys around here wearing astana pj's should be very worried if contador doesn't put his stamp on the race tomorrow.

Radioshwck and liquigas will be very visible late in the stage, Saxo at the base. I think Evans will be in yellow.

Forget it... El Pistolero is going to wait until the Pyrenees... They have to climb Le Col du Tourmalet twice... so there is when AC is going to try to smash all the contenders... I barely can wait

 

[luckyboy]

If all out war between the favorites is declared I don't think Chavanel can hang on... But if Bertie boy decides he wants to preserve his team and ride conservatively (i.e. not attack) then Chavanel does have an outside chance of clamping on, and preserving his yellow. He does have 1:30 on Evans and 2+ minutes on the likes of Contador, Schleck etc.

Yeah I guess. Plus nobody's gonna want yellow this early.

 

[reyan12]

Contador will attack and definitely will take this stage but not the yellow.he's not yet ready and not not advisable enough to be in yellow at this early.

 

[The Hitch]

Know it won't happen, but it'd be great if Sylvain managed to hang on to yellow. Otherwise, it'd be cool if Conti attacks.

a lot of people suddenly get wings once they put on a leaders jersey, though since its sylvian, i expect 3 punctures on the final climb.

 

[reubenr]

Contador will attack and definitely will take this stage but not the yellow.he's not yet ready and not not advisable enough to be in yellow at this early.

For sure Contador doesn't want the yellow yet, and it is probably in his best interest to just counter all the moves. In many ways, that is probably the most devastating attack of all. It will kind of take the starch out of his opponents. At the same time, my hope is that the pace is enough to brake the backs of the old farts on Radio Shack. Let's hope for a real hot day and look forward to the creative excuses from RS as to why they fell off the mountain. Evans in first (so what), Andy in 2nd, and Contador moves in to 3rd. When it all comes out in the wash, it will be in reverse order as stated here.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I think Astana will use Vino to attack tomorrow, drawing out RadioShack and some of the other contenders.

Contador will try to bridge up. That's my theory.

Of course, my track record of accuracy in predicting how stages will go is mixed at best.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

About 145km (partly downhill) before anything will start and the climbs not terribly difficult make this makes this potentially a boring stage.

Stragglers way down on GC will break, and a train will quickly push over Ramaz and Gets, slowly dropping riders, down to about 50. Maybe someone strong, but lower down on GC will jump, and likely some climbing domestiques, but not get too far (LL Sanchez? Gesink? Kreuziger? Horner? Vino? Pineau? Voekler? Karpets? Basso?)

Up the Avoriaz the main group will thin to some 30 riders. Don't expect Contador to attack until the last 500m, unless someone else does that is a threat and looks strong, and he follows.

It benefits Contador to do two things: 1) Show he's strong and no one can really drop him and he's tranquillo. 2) Let Evens or Schleck take the Maillot Jaune. If one of them does attack hard under 5km, he may go with them.

Don't expect Armstrong to do anything but follow the main group and show he's there. In 2000 he may have attacked here, not 10 years later.

Weather may be a wild card. Cool, cloudy with showers may neutralize some attacks, inspire others to take chances.

 

[indurain666]

Anyone who really wants to break open the GC and gain a significant amount of time should do well to already attack, or at least really up the pace at the Col de La Ramaz, nice and steep and a good chance for someone who can also decent descent or better to gain some extra time in the descents, Sammy Sanchez would do well to do that.

But probably no-one will do anything until we get to the final climb, where the favourites won't attack until the last 5-10 k before the finish.

I agree, the climb is not super though but steep enough to open some gaps. And as much as I hate to admit, one of the few mountain top finishes. Madeleine stage is very tough, but with 30 kms to go at the top, it would require a team/guy to break the race apart on the previous climbs, like Landis did it in 2006 or Festina did it at le grand ballone in 2007. Here are mi picks on guys that I think would go on the offensive tomorrow:

-Andy Schleck: Where else is he going to gain time on the likes of AC, LA, CE before the time trial??
-Armstrong: He needs to recover some lost time on the pave, besides he lost all uphill showdowns in 2009, so I think he needs to gain his confidence back.
-Evans: If he wants to win he is going to need some time on Contador
-AC:Although he might not be planning to attack, he is going to end up reacting.
-Basso: Another guy who needs it. I am not so sure about his current form...top 10 for him is the best he can get at this tour.

Now that I think about it, this year's course is not very hard really.

 

[Ryaguas]

HERE COMES DA SHACK ATTACK!!!!

Oh wait there is too much heat...!
look! Kloeden and Popo are cracking!
Nah don't worry Levi, Jani and Chris are there!
Nah take it easy Levi is still there...
Vino attacks!!!! Levi is going after him!!! Oh the heat has cooked him!!! Levi RIP!!
Nah he is too strong for Dertie! just wait and see...
OMG Here comes Dertie's attack!!!!!! Lance is right behind him!!!! OMFG!!!! Lance is being popped from the group!!! why! why! why is that!!!? Lance punctured!!! where is Jani or Levi??!
That is going to be the history tomorrow... nah just kidding hahahahahaha Just spamming...

But Seriously I want to see if The Shack are going BIG tomorrow... I want a good fight from them or they are going to suck big the wheel of Liquigas and Rabobank...

 

[scribe]

Forget it... El Pistolero is going to wait until the Pyrenees... They have to climb Le Col du Tourmalet twice... so there is when AC is going to try to smash all the contenders... I barely can wait

if he has the legs tomorrow, he should and will go. If he doesn't, you'd better hope he has them later, like before next season.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

I hope and predict there will be much more selection than there was today, but that's almost guaranteed.

More specifically, I see the pace being picked up as more and more crack and fall of the back, eventually leaving last year's podium, at which point I think AC will attack, LA will follow and will get some time on AS and others, but will lose a few seconds to AC.

 

[Ryaguas]

if he has the legs tomorrow, he should and will go. If he doesn't, you'd better hope he has them later, like before next season.

Well seeing AC's performance this year and the year before is normal in him have the better form in the last week or last days of the competitions (I'm not talking about just La Grande Boucle, also Il Giro y La Vuelta and other "Minors" competitions) also he has arrived to the tour with a good form projecting to have a GREAT form in the 2nd and 3rd week of competition... if you read his Twitter you can see that he isn't have the 100% yet, but IMHO He is between 80% - 85% right now...

I know that that has to be demonstrated on the course and tomorrow we will see a little bit of that... El Pistolero is not going to attack full throttle but he is going to show something and make a point... If Dani and Tiralongo can hang on with the selection in the higher steep and after the attacks and If Vino has the legs he will have the green light to go for the stage and to burn some matches from the other GC contenders... well that's what I'm thinking... but I want to see other situation totally different...

I want to see Liquigas and Rabobank setting the tempo and Basso - Kreuziger - Szymd going big tomorrow...

 

[scribe]

I am super interested to see how Ryder does tomorrow. He is very well placed and conspicuously pesky in stage 7

 

[Potomac]

Contador to give it everything 4km from the summit and put time into everyone.

 

[Publicus]

Tomorrow is about Radio Shack and Liquigas looking to gain time. If Astana is smart, they do not take control of the race, but sit back and let it develop. AC is far better counter-attacking then he is setting up and launching an attack (though he's effective at that as well). Gain some time if he can, but I wouldn't count on him dropping the hammer or otherwise putting on Verbier-like performance tomorrow. It's just not required at this point.

Tomorrow is about Radio Shack and Liquigas. I'd be interested to see if Horner and Kloden have recovered, since both admit to having had bad legs today.

 

[auscyclefan94]

leiphimer's comments about the stage

"Contador looks good, Lance looks good, but apart from that everyone seemed to be hurting. Those two look really good though. It's the battle we're expecting," he said.

armstrong's comment about the stage

"I suffered," said Armstrong. "I think about everybody did. It was so incredibly hard. It was just the heat. Everybody really paid. Everybody would say it was much harder than we'd think because of the temperature. If you get a little behind on hydration and nutrition - that's what happened to Klödi (Andreas Klöden) - the man with the hammer comes and you're done."

See the hypocrisy?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Tomorrow is about Radio Shack and Liquigas looking to gain time. If Astana is smart, they do not take control of the race, but sit back and let it develop. AC is far better counter-attacking then he is setting up and launching an attack (though he's effective at that as well). Gain some time if he can, but I wouldn't count on him dropping the hammer or otherwise putting on Verbier-like performance tomorrow. It's just not required at this point.

Tomorrow is about Radio Shack and Liquigas. I'd be interested to see if Horner and Kloden have recovered, since both admit to having had bad legs today.

yeah, It is a basso climb imo so maybe he will go well. Phil Anderson said unless they race really hard up the final climb, it won't be overly descisive as it is not super steep. The first 6km's of the the last climb yesterday is steeper than avoriaz's average gradient.

 

[scribe]

leiphimer's comments about the stage



armstrong's comment about the stage

See the hypocrisy?

yeah. they better get their stories sync'd up better before Balco2 gets going

 

[luckyboy]

yeah, It is a basso climb imo

Really? It doesn't look steep enough to me.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Really? It doesn't look steep enough to me.

I thought basso likes climbs with a similar gradient the whole way through as basso does not react quickly to accelerations on and changes of pace on different gradients.

 

[Publicus]

leiphimer's comments about the stage



armstrong's comment about the stage


See the hypocrisy?

No hypocrisy. Levi said Lance LOOKED good. Lance said it was a hard day for everybody, but he also said he felt good. The pace was hard, but steady, and no one went for it. I wouldn't expect anyone who wants to win this race to have been in real trouble today (yesterday).

What did Cadel have to say?

 

[luckyboy]

I thought basso likes climbs with a similar gradient the whole way through as basso does not react quickly to accelerations on and changes of pace on different gradients.

Yeah I thought that, just on steeper climbs

 

[Steel4Ever]

I am super interested to see how Ryder does tomorrow. He is very well placed and conspicuously pesky in stage 7

I say he preserves a top 10 -- both in stage and overall.

As others have pointed out, the climb is relatively easy and steady -- no uber steep sections for the uber climbers to blast off. This type of climb suits riders like RH. Hope he does well.