Stage Profiles Tour de France 2013

[whittashau]

In all seriousness breakaways succeeding are only slightly more boring than the modern "yawn" uphill finishes made for the TV ADHD cycling fans where one the winner is mainly predetermined by their genes ( and maybe a little medication) with very little emphasis on rider skill, teamwork, strategy or bike handling.

Wait, how are climbers any more predetermined by genes than sprinters? Last I checked having fast-twitch fibers and whatnot is just as much about genetics as how skinny you can be etc

 

[Old&slow]

How can working twice as hard as the members of the peloton with 4 other guys all day be an undeserved victory? And since when does danger equal excitement? Unless you believe that Nascar is the greatest sport in the world. I have no problem with a few sprint stages, but surely you can see the benefit of a stage where any kind of rider can win? Not stages where being almost as fast as Cav is the only deciding factor on whether a rider can win or not.

And the most exciting thing in cycling are MTFs surely because those are the stages that are most viewed.

Almost every time a breakway wins it is because the peleton let them or a crash. It is not because of working hard. I can walk down the street and drop dollar bills. You can follow me and pick them up. But you only get those dollars if I refuse to pick them up. The same goes for a breakway they only win because no one else cares enough to pull them in.

 

[Old&slow]

Wait, how are climbers any more predetermined by genes than sprinters? Last I checked having fast-twitch fibers and whatnot is just as much about genetics as how skinny you can be etc

Sprinting while the bigger engine certainly helps it is less predetermined by gentics and places a larger emphasis on skill, bike handling and teamwork than a climber. Guys like McEwen made a living out of winning by having great bike handling skills. If you believe Cavendish his numbers are far to low to be a competitive sprinter. He has been told time and time again he does not put out enough horsepower to win. But he still wins because he has better technique and does not need the as much HP because he is much more efficient in his lower position compared to other sprinters. If it was pure numbers and genetics he would lose everytime.

But sprinting is a lot more about daring, being completely insane, bike handling and getting oneself into the position to win then a climbers ability to simply ride away away from other riders up a hill. There simply is a lot more variables and a lot more skill involved in sprinting. What Cav did in last years Tour with no teammates was pretty amazing. What he did in the Giro this year was wonderful. Both of those performances eclipse anything any climber has done in any recent Tour by a large margin.

 

[SKSemtex]

Money talks. British stage winner is for Tour much more profitable than some Slovak one.
We just can hope that Cav will not take all Corsica stages otherwise the Green jersey fight is over before the Tour reach the continent.

 

[Ferminal]

I notice 4 categorised climbs before Ventoux, mountains all day!

 

[Coolair2970]

I also liked the Giro route at first but with 8000m + worth of climbing taken out i think TDF will trump the Giro. Froome v Contador, sounds a lot better than Nibali v no 1. At least we should have a good GC battle and Froome going crazy uphill will be fun. The Giro was poor the TDF will be good i think i like the stage 16 profile two.

I love these kind of routes, because they almost guaranties 8 major crashes on the first flat stages, and all our ideas of a Froome, Wiigins, Contador, Evans, Andy battle goes out the window.

My guess is that at least 3 of the expected Top 10 riders are out of the race after stage 5.

 

[Pulpstar]

Why is there a feed station listed in a 33 kilometre Team Time trial ? Have I missed something there ? Ah it is individual. Still, food needed in 33 ks ?

 

[icefire]

Sprinting while the bigger engine certainly helps it is less predetermined by gentics and places a larger emphasis on skill, bike handling and teamwork than a climber. Guys like McEwen made a living out of winning by having great bike handling skills. If you believe Cavendish his numbers are far to low to be a competitive sprinter. He has been told time and time again he does not put out enough horsepower to win. But he still wins because he has better technique and does not need the as much HP because he is much more efficient in his lower position compared to other sprinters. If it was pure numbers and genetics he would lose everytime.

But sprinting is a lot more about daring, being completely insane, bike handling and getting oneself into the position to win then a climbers ability to simply ride away away from other riders up a hill. There simply is a lot more variables and a lot more skill involved in sprinting. What Cav did in last years Tour with no teammates was pretty amazing. What he did in the Giro this year was wonderful. Both of those performances eclipse anything any climber has done in any recent Tour by a large margin.

Sprinters belong to the track. You may sit there and watch live lots of sprints, one after every few laps. Unfortunately, nobody (neither public nor sponsors) cares about track races, so sprinters are forced to move to the road to earn their bread feeding on us their half minute show where most people expect something that lasts for longer.

 

[Pulpstar]

Stage 13 was the best sprint stage of the Giro, 254 km long and with a nice Cat 3 a bit out from the finish. In my book that was OPQS/Cav's best win. Stage 17 was also a nicely designed stage that could have been won by a sprinter had they had more climbing legs (Sagan ?)

 

[Leonardus]

I really hope Pescheux will retire soon, year after year he proves that he doesn't know how to design a proper GT. The only improvement I see compared to last years route is less backloading with some hilly stages on Corsica (but still not hard enough) and a good MTF on stage 8.
However again too many sprint stages and too few hilly/medium mountain stages. The Giro stages like Pescara and Ivrea were very good and there are plenty of options in France to design similar stages. Dull sprint stages with some major crashes will again be the main recipe for most stages.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I really hope Pescheux will retire soon, year after year he proves that he doesn't know how to design a proper GT. The only improvement I see compared to last years route is less backloading with some hilly stages on Corsica (but still not hard enough) and a good MTF on stage 8.
However again too many sprint stages and too few hilly/medium mountain stages. The Giro stages like Pescara and Ivrea were very good and there are plenty of options in France to design similar stages. Dull sprint stages with some major crashes will again be the main recipe for most stages.

I think ASO will sell the route to however brings the cash. Having said that, Pescheux doesn't even seem to fight the commercial trend. Looks like hes just rolling over.

However he did a faily good job at CdD this year imo. Perhaps a little revolt from the guy.

 

[Ruby United]

If all goes to plan Cav can win six stages.

I think he will win 4 though (or maybe five)

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

If all goes to plan Cav can win six stages.

I think he will win 4 though (or maybe five)

No, if literally all went to plan, he could win up to 11, of which 9 he would expect to compete, and so anything less than 6 wins would be disappointing on this route.

 

[cineteq]

If all goes to plan Cav can win six stages.

I think he will win 4 though (or maybe five)

Cavendish is finally going to face real sprinters. He might win just one if he's lucky.

 

[Bernie's eyesore]

Cavendish is finally going to face real sprinters. He might win just one if he's lucky.

Agreed, first time he has had to face the likes of Demare and Coquard in the Tour, he won't know what's hit him.

 

[Froome19]

No, if literally all went to plan, he could win up to 11, of which 9 he would expect to compete, and so anything less than 6 wins would be disappointing on this route.

Greipel may not be Cavendish's equal but he is not far off and he did equal Cavendish's tally last year, albeit Cav had much less support from his team whilst Greipel's leadout was generally very good. So I wouldn't be saying 6 for Greipel but I do expect him to at least grab a couple of stages even with Cavendish's leadout train back to a semblance of the old HTC days.

Then there is also Kittel who last year was neutralised and has the speed to challenge Cav, I don't know if he will last but he can certainly take a stage win or two, and then there is also all the other opportunists like Sagan, Degenkolb (who's sprint is imo under rated on here) who do have what it takes to take a sprint win..

Then there is also crashes, always the nemesis of the optimistic sprinter.

So I would say raising the bar to 6 is being a bit too optimistic even with Cav's Giro form his rivals at the Tour will be a whole different kettle of fish..

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Griepel didn't beat Cav in a straight up sprint once last year. His 2011 win was much more impressive (in that he actually did beat Cav).

Last year his 3 wins involved 2 Cav crashes, and 1 where Cav was sprinting for 500m thanks to starting 30 or 40m back (and finished 5th). Still good wins for Griepel, but the context is worth remembering.

Anyhow, my post was clearly responding to the 'if all goes well' point. Winning some and losing some is not 'if all goes well'. I was just pointing out the ideal conceivable result for Cav. Obviously he will probably crash somewhere, get the odd bad leadout etc.

However, if he does get consistently good leadouts, I don't expect him to lose more than 1 stage from a good position.

 

[Ferminal]

Agreed, first time he has had to face the likes of Demare and Coquard in the Tour, he won't know what's hit him.

Yes, he's extremely lucky neither are likely to race it.

 

[theyoungest]

Griepel didn't beat Cav in a straight up sprint once last year. His 2011 win was much more impressive (in that he actually did beat Cav).

Last year his 3 wins involved 2 Cav crashes, and 1 where Cav was sprinting for 500m thanks to starting 30 or 40m back (and finished 5th). Still good wins for Griepel, but the context is worth remembering.

Anyhow, my post was clearly responding to the 'if all goes well' point. Winning some and losing some is not 'if all goes well'. I was just pointing out the ideal conceivable result for Cav. Obviously he will probably crash somewhere, get the odd bad leadout etc.

However, if he does get consistently good leadouts, I don't expect him to lose more than 1 stage from a good position.

At least learn how to spell the name of your man's most worthy opponent

It could be 8 Cav stage wins indeed. The 2nd time trial looks good though, what's the last time they had such a hard TT in the Tour?

 

[Bavarianrider]

I don't get why everybody thinks the second TT is good.
It's a 13km 6% Mtt with 18km of rolling downhill.
That's neither particularly exciting as a mountain TT, nor is it intersting for TT specialists.
There will only be marginal time differences among the GC guys, too.

 

[Cimber]

I don't get why everybody thinks the second TT is good.
It's a 13km 6% Mtt with 18km of rolling downhill.
That's neither particularly exciting as a mountain TT, nor is it intersting for TT specialists.
There will only be marginal time differences among the GC guys, too.

Thats whats good about it

 

[Miburo]

I don't get why everybody thinks the second TT is good.
It's a 13km 6% Mtt with 18km of rolling downhill.
That's neither particularly exciting as a mountain TT, nor is it intersting for TT specialists.
There will only be marginal time differences among the GC guys, too.

Trust me, Tony will lose quite some time

 

[Bavarianrider]

Thats whats good about it

If that is the purpose, it would be better to simply scrap the TT.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Trust me, Tony will lose quite some time

So you consider Tony a GC contender?

 

[Bernie's eyesore]

Yes, he's extremely lucky neither are likely to race it.

Good news for Cav then, will be interesting to see who all these new rivals for Cav are then that I don't know about.