State of the peloton 2022

[Netserk]

 

[fatissimo]

Yeah.....no.....you missed it, but this certainly looked impressive at first glance.

 

[fbjim]

Probability only tells you how likely it is for it to be accidental/aleatory effect. If its extremely unlikely, it suggest you are missing on some "hidden" variable or variables with explanatory power and failed to include them in your model. Could be climate, geography, popularity of the sport, local federation pumping money, good coaches, better equipment, better teammates, good agents or whatever, that explain this overrepresentation at the top. In mature professional sports most these factors are pretty even and its usually doping

when there is an statistical anomaly, theres a cause for it, the whole data science field is based on this assumption

"Number of top riders" is an exceptionally noisy and coarse number. Like, we're talking about a number of 3. This is a case where even a slight variance (if Slovenia had 2 top riders, would we care?) can suddenly look way out of whack, in the same way that someone winning the lottery twice (which has happened) does.

Other things worth noting: Slovenia currently don't particularly have representation in the top levels of the Junior ranks, and with the exception of Pogacar, the U23 ranks. Not to mention that the teams these riders are on are all independently "overperforming" regardless of nationality.

 

[zlev11]

everyone is wondering what happened to Quick-Step but nobody wants to mention that they lost Dr. Ibarguren

 

[Ilmaestro99]

everyone is wondering what happened to Quick-Step but nobody wants to mention that they lost Dr. Ibarguren

I already mentioned it. Some guy told me in response that it was actually because declerq was out . Lol

 

[fbjim]

at least we might be spared Cavendish beating a Merckx record

 

[Mayomaniac]

Meanwhile Raul Alarcon's appeal got rejected by the CAS, he still has to serve a 4 year ban until the end of the 2023 season...
Source: https://www.abola.pt/nnh/2022-03-30/ciclismo-tas-confirma-dopagem-e-suspensao-de-raul-alarcon/934396

 

[fmk_RoI]

Meanwhile Raul Alarcon's appeal got rejected by the CAS, he still has to serve a 4 year ban until the end of the 2023 season...

Pinto's case is still on-going, for some reason, hasn't even got a verdict to appeal to CAS. ABP cases are the worst in terms of timescale and information. You'd think they'd have done the W52 cases as a batch...

 

[SHAD0W93]

at least we might be spared Cavendish beating a Merckx record

Unless he’s dominating the Giro and Vuelta.

 

[topt]

IIRC pretty much every top Slovenian cyclist before the current very successful group ran into doping issues one way or another. I guess Bole would be the most successful Slovenian rider from before the emergence of the current batch that did not have doping issues.

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so what you are saying is they are no differnet than any other country

 

[topt]

In a country I have spent time in, the doping of several generations was all traced back to one guy. Cohort or not, they can all be part of the same ring. My original query wasn't related to the "why" though, I was really just pointing out the absurdity of such a tiny places spitting out the 3 champs at the same time (more or less). Your observation that there are 7 Slovenian WT riders backs up my own questioning. 7 WT riders in a country that fields 40 or so riders at their nationals. wtf kind of ratio is that, almost 20% of your elite riders are World Tour? If the US had that, they might have hundreds of WT riders!

US doesnt have that so they are obviously NOT doping, the logic here is just brillant based on history

 

[saganftw]

slovenians having two GT winners in the same generation is like french having none since 1995 a before that 1989

that must also be some statistical anomaly, because they are actually trying...hell russians have more grand tours in last 30 years and canadians have the same

perhaps they are too clean

 

[Red Rick]

slovenians having two GT winners in the same generation is like french having none since 1995 a before that 1989

that must also be some statistical anomaly, because they are actually trying...hell russians have more grand tours in last 30 years and canadians have the same

perhaps they are too clean

The French stay in French teams, which do seem to be behind the pack a lot of times. Also they naturally focus extremely heavily on the Tour de France, which is the hardest to win.

 

[SHAD0W93]

The French stay in French teams, which do seem to be behind the pack a lot of times. Also they naturally focus extremely heavily on the Tour de France, which is the hardest to win.

Even with the Tour focus they didn’t have any riders before Pinot or Bardet that you’d think could win a GT after Virenque. They just became the breakaway riders with some okayish sprinters.

 

[Red Rick]

Even with the Tour focus they didn’t have any riders before Pinot or Bardet that you’d think could win a GT after Virenque. They just became the breakaway riders with some okayish sprinters.

True. I do think the whole French crackdown on doping has left them really far behind the pack. Also I think the French domestic scene is probably less geared towards climbing than the Italian or Spanish one.

I do wonder how good Pinot could've been if he hadn't stayed at Groupama his entire career.

 

[pastronef]

I do wonder how good Pinot could've been if he hadn't stayed at Groupama his entire career.

yep. I wonder too.
he's got the half-Jesus status in France. suffering for them all, the fans.
all the narrative, and pressure, and hopes, are/were hard to carry
he shoulda have left yeara ago, gone to Andorra, signed for Sunweb/Bora, forget the goats, ride different races, learn English

 

[SHAD0W93]

True. I do think the whole French crackdown on doping has left them really far behind the pack. Also I think the French domestic scene is probably less geared towards climbing than the Italian or Spanish one.

I do wonder how good Pinot could've been if he hadn't stayed at Groupama his entire career.

He could have had Better supporting teammates but either the team/coach did a good job on helping him with TT and downhill. Also the team let him and Demare split the GTs but the public put a lot of pressure on him. I think that’s a lot of killer too, having to carry so much hope on your shoulders.
I think riding with Contador or Nibali would have been good for him. Also had some bad luck on years he looked really good unfortunately.

 

[ppanther92]

Seriously - whats the thing witht he Slovenians. There must be a reason, even if not clinic related. They have the 2 best GC riders (one of which is overall the best cyclist). Mohoric is #5 in the Procyclingstats ranking. So that makes 3 out of 5 of the best cyclists for such a small country. And also Tratnik is way better than ever before. He raced in a CT team in Austria until 26 and did not show that much. Really remarkable.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Who needs the anti-moto thermals or x-rays, at this point they only need to bring Geiger counters...

 

[ppanther92]

I actually enjoy it for now. Because Pogacar is just hyperaggressive and also tackling the classics. But I probably will think differently about it in 5 years from now (if it goes on, you never know).

 

[Ripper]

Lol ... Full nuclear mode

 

[fatissimo]

Lol ... Full nuclear mode

Cancellara mode....

 

[Ripper]

Cancellara mode....

Pog would have dropped Cancellara

 

[fatissimo]

He could have had Better supporting teammates but either the team/coach did a good job on helping him with TT and downhill. Also the team let him and Demare split the GTs but the public put a lot of pressure on him. I think that’s a lot of killer too, having to carry so much hope on your shoulders.
I think riding with Contador or Nibali would have been good for him. Also had some bad luck on years he looked really good unfortunately.

There are regions in France where the racing is completely geared towards climbing-others less so, agreed. Italy and Spain for sure more, but no shortage of climbing races in France. They also have more races overall than Spain, not sure about Italy though.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Well, at least we can say that brain doping is still not I thing...