Suppose Andy Schleck doesnt ride the Tour in 2011. Who wins?

[Sophistic]

Another one for Sanchez, although Basso definietly has a shot at it, he might not be as strong as in his pre-Puerto days but 400 Watts(like his performance at the Zoncolan) seem to be enough these days.

 

[simo1733]

I think Basso would have the best chance.Evans would find a way to defeat himself.Too early for Ricco.Menchov on the podium.

 

[markene2]

To be honest i want Vino to win this, but we all know it's not going to happen. Without AC and Schleck. Basso will take this, Menchov will be close. And Vino might be lucky and get the 3rd place.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I think Basso would have the best chance.Evans would find a way to defeat himself.Too early for Ricco.Menchov on the podium.

if you mean not being a good enough climber then i agree

 

[Vonn Brinkman]

1. Basso
2. Ricco
3. Sanchez

 

[Contre la montre]

I couldn't help myself, I had to vote for Gesink. Basso second and Sanchez to round out the podium.

 

[Jancouver]

Voted: Other

1.Horner
2.Kreuziger
3.Velits

 

[Arnout]

2007? Eh, he was a youngster.
2009 I don't recall him crashing at all.

And what's to say he can't work on his bike handling skills and get better at them? I mean, Denis Menchov has 3 GT wins, and he's well known for crashing all the time too - he even crashed when attacking solo uphill on Prato Nervoso in 2008... but he still has 3 GT wins, and nobody would count him out of a GC battle until he's several minutes down, unless they were stupid.

2009 4 times in the first week.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Oh right, well, 2009 I don't remember much about since absolutely nothing happened. During week 1 I was on dissertation writing duty so that explains why I would have missed it.

However, it is inaccurate since 2007 was his first Tour de France.

 

[Parrulo]

Voted: Other

1.LoLrner
2.Kreuziger
3.Velits

he got lucky this years tour with the breakaway and everything. besides he was never by any chance on the same level as the second tier contenders(taking into account that this thread assumes there are no first tier)

kreuziger is a good choice but tbh velits seems like the best of those 3.

 

[Moondance]

Voted: Other

1.Horner
2.Kreuziger
3.Velits

 

[Ferminal]

Samu...

Basso is no longer ET, which is what it takes to win the Tour.

 

[hrotha]

he got lucky this years tour with the breakaway and everything. besides he was never by any chance on the same level as the second tier contenders(taking into account that this thread assumes there are no first tier)

kreuziger is a good choice but tbh velits seems like the best of those 3.

I thought everybody agreed Velits would never again reach that level in GTs. More exactly, I thought my opinion was universally valid even though I've never heard other people's take on it.

 

[Parrulo]

I thought everybody agreed Velits would never again reach that level in GTs. More exactly, I thought my opinion was universally valid even though I've never heard other people's take on it.

.... rly? why will he never reach that potential again while guys like richie porte(whom i do consider less talented GT wise) and future GT winners?

 

[hrotha]

.... rly? why will he never reach that potential again while guys like richie porte(whom i do consider less talented GT wise) and future GT winners?

Well, for starters, I don't think Richie Porte is a future GT winner.

As for Velits, I guess my problem is that I think his performance at the Vuelta was unbelievable - in the bad sense of the word.

 

[Parrulo]

Well, for starters, I don't think Richie Porte is a future GT winner.

As for Velits, I guess my problem is that I think his performance at the Vuelta was unbelievable - in the bad sense of the word.

ofc when a former u23 world champ performs well on GT for the first time at a young age just like the likes of shleck(with 22 years), cunego(with 22 years) and contador(with 24 just like velits) it must be doping . . .

" thought everybody agreed Velits would never again reach that level in GTs."

thats what you said about velits so i also generalized my comment about porte.

nothing personal tho just different opinions

 

[rzombie1988]

I'm really interested to see who can make the podium this year. I think we could see some people make a bigger effort with Contador possibly out.

Here's my thoughts on a couple of guys:

- I think if Cadel is ever going to win the TDF, this is going to have to be it. I don't think he will, but it's going to be his best shot
- I love Ricco but don't think he will win. No reason why, just don't feel it, which is the same as...
- Frank Schleck. I don't think he will win either but he should have a good chance at making the podium. He's going to really benefit by having Andy with him(and vice versa - not counting if Andy isn't riding).
- Don't see Sastre winning it.
- Sam Sanchez should have a good shot next year if he can perform like he did this year.
-Same with Menchov
- Going to be really interesting to see what Vino can do. I would be surprised if he can win, but he should be able to get a stage win.

I'm pretty excited about this year's TDF. Contador possibly not being there improves everyone elses chances. I don't like him, but I wouldn't bet against him getting on the podium.

There is no doubt in my mind that we are getting a fresh face on the podium this year.

 

[La Pandera]

he got lucky this years tour with the breakaway and everything. besides he was never by any chance on the same level as the second tier contenders(taking into account that this thread assumes there are no first tier)

kreuziger is a good choice but tbh velits seems like the best of those 3.

Additionally even Bruyneel is giving Horner no props. He's talking up Brajkovic as one of Radioshack's hopefuls in the Tour with no mention of Horner's chances. Horner will be left fetching bottles and playing chaperone for Brajkovic should he falter and/or escorting Leipheimer when he inevitably gets dropped in the mountains by the real contenders.

I'm going with Basso and Samu Sanchez battling it out with Sanchez taking the win. Menchov will be on the 3rd step with Nibali just missing the podium.
Ricco's team will be his primary burden.

Edit: Initially I voted for Basso but have since begun leaning more towards Samu!!

 

[Glockers]

Additionally even Bruyneel is giving Horner no props. He's talking up Brajkovic as one of Radioshack's hopefuls in the Tour with no mention of Horner's chances. Horner will be left fetching bottles and playing chaperone for Brajkovic should he falter and/or escorting Leipheimer when he inevitably gets dropped in the mountains by the real contenders.

I'm going with Basso and Samu Sanchez battling it out with Sanchez taking the win. Menchov will be on the 3rd step with Nibali just missing the podium.
Ricco's team will be his primary burden.

IT would be interesting if they swapped Horner and Leipheimer's roles. I wonder if Horner would do better than Leipheimer as leader?

 

[La Pandera]

IT would be interesting if they swapped Horner and Leipheimer's roles. I wonder if Horner would do better than Leipheimer as leader?

Horner is the better all around rider. Leipheimer can TT and climb but tactically he isn't someone that I think a ds would give the responsibility of road captain to. It's interesting that as Leipheimer seems to be slipping performance wise, Horner seems to be reaching new highs in his results and Horner's what 2 or 3 years older than Leipheimer? I have to ask, has anyone heard and reasoning (from Bruyneel, Leipheimer and/or Kloden) why Leipheimer and Kloden's Tour performances were so abysmal?

 

[M Sport]

Basso for me, and I think he would probably beat Schleck anyway if he skips the Giro.

 

[La Pandera]

Basso for me, and I think he would probably beat Schleck anyway if he skips the Giro.

I agree. For me I can't help thinking that for someone with so much talent as Andy Schleck has, he has 2 Tour stage wins to his credit, one that he lucked up on because Samuel Sanchez cramped up just before the finish, allowing Andy to get the win and the 2nd pretty much an uncontested guilt/gift from Contador as a result of Chaingate. He's got LBL to his credit too but in the years since his Giro breakthrough he's won very little. No major week long stage races to his credit which is odd to me for a stage race specialist/hilly classic rider like him.

 

[Freddo]

Evans for me! As long as he doesen't do the Giro like last year. It's ashame riders can't do the Giro to get a better result in the tour.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I agree. For me I can't help thinking that for someone with so much talent as Andy Schleck has, he has 2 Tour stage wins to his credit, one that he lucked up on because Samuel Sanchez cramped up just before the finish, allowing Andy to get the win and the 2nd pretty much an uncontested guilt/gift from Contador as a result of Chaingate. He's got LBL to his credit too but in the years since his Giro breakthrough he's won very little. No major week long stage races to his credit which is odd to me for a stage race specialist/hilly classic rider like him.

I don't even like him, but this is hardly a feasible argument. Cycling is an endurance sport, schleck won that stage fair and square.

Stage wins aside, he was faraway better then everyone else in the mountains at this year's tour. Excluding conta obviously.
Maybe basso could contend, not sure if the climbs are steep enough for him to drop schleck (whom has a much better acceleration).. we'll see.

 

[pedaller]

'The Pope' for me. Thought i would analyse everyone.

Igor “Fuji” Antón - Would love it if he did, but his tt is not good enough and he wont take enough time in the mtns. Super-dom for Sanchez.

Ivan “ The Terrible” Basso - Strong climber but without a Zoncolan-like climb where does he take significant time? Will lose ~1.5-2 mins in the tt to the top guys. If he could attack and drop riders he would be a big big show.

Cadel “Cuddles” Evans - Loses too much on the climbs (lately) although he may be able to hang on if it's a basso-type pace (i.e. steady not explosive) but regardless he will lose as much in the ttt that he gains in the tt.

Robert “Bobby the Condor” Gesink - Would need to improve alot on last years performance (he was injured tho). When he climbs amazingly he tends to tt like **** (see TdS last year) so maybe went too skinny last year? An outside chance though.

Dennis Nikolayevich “The Pope” Menchov - I think he would do it. Hang on looking like death in the mtns then crush everyone in the tt - Giro 09 style.

Vincenzo “Don Sharko” Nibali - No Chance. Won the lowest quality field GT for a while and only because Anton crashed out (might not have even made the podium without the crash).

Riccardo “The Cobra” Riccò - The Joker in the pack. Explosive enough to take time in the mtns but i can't see him being 'allowed' to win/look like winning.

Fränk René “The Elder” Schleck - No chance. Loses minutes in the tt and has yet to show he can be strong late in the third week. Over-rated rider in my opinion. Best result is 5th and he would be lucky to beat that imo.

Samuel “Samu” Sánchez Gonzalez - Very big chance especially if Anton can be a big help. Has it all - explosive climber, great descender and strong tter.

Others - Vino - Not good enough in the mtns.

Sastre - Not what he once was when with Riis - make of that what you will. Maybe Gianetti can get his 'motivation' back.

Eze - Suspended (highly likely) not good enough anyway.

Scarponi - Not good enough at everything.

Di Luca - See Ricco - doubt he would be there anyway.

Kreuziger - Will be working for Vino. Best chance would be a Pereiro like breakaway.

Rodriguez - tt lets him down.

VdB - Yeah right dream on belgies.

Wiggins - See Scarponi.

Guys from the American teams (Garmin, HTC & RS) - Top 5 at best.

Frenchies - See Clinic for why they won't.

Can't think of anyone else worth adding.