Surprise Rider of the Tour

[markene2]

Lutsenko

 

[staubsauger]

Re:

Lutsenko

Guess he isn't allowed!

(In Spain everything's possible though!)

 

[Moviestar]

Meintjes has put a step this half season. Could be a succesfull factor in the breakaway (mountain)stages.

 

[greenedge]

Adam Yates to be a surprise person in the top 10.

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

If you can predict it in this thread then it will not be a surprise.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

To go all Ryo and nationalistic for a minute, really hoping for a good showing by Sam Bennett. Might be a stretch for him to win a stage - obviously sprinting is an 'all or nothing' thing where typically whatever sprinter has the best form will hoover up most of the stages, but I'm hoping for high placings for him at least. With Kittel off song the sprints are arguably quite open this year, depending on how strong Cavendish is.

Not unrealistic. He's also got a decent pilot fish in Dempster too.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Simon Yates doing very good in the gc. Orica is protecting these Yates brothers a lot. I don't even know if White would let Simon try. I hope he does. I'd love to see him going for gc. Really curious to see what he could do at his young age (or see if he could even last 3 weeks.)

White seems to be good at encouraging young talent without over pressuring them. Matthews, Durbridge, Chavez and the Yates brothers look like evidence of this.

Orica will probably let the Yates work together for a good GC spot, then help them chase stages if/when they fall off the pace. Between the Yates, Gerrans, Matthews, Clarke and Meyer they should get at least a stage win somewhere.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Adam Yates to be a surprise person in the top 10.

I doubt anyone would be too surprised if one of them scrape a top 10.

 

[orangerider]

Basso.

 

[jmdirt]

Sagan will follow up his TdC GC victory with a GC victory in France!

 

[Oliver]

Re:

Simon Yates doing very good in the gc. Orica is protecting these Yates brothers a lot. I don't even know if White would let Simon try. I hope he does. I'd love to see him going for gc. Really curious to see what he could do at his young age (or see if he could even last 3 weeks.)

Simon said he won't go for the GC.
Good thing, i hope he wins a mountain stage!

 

[Oliver]

Re: Re:

Lutsenko

Guess he isn't allowed!

(In Spain everything's possible though!)

Normally he'll be there.

 

[barmaher]

Re:

If you can predict it in this thread then it will not be a surprise.

Ah come on. Some of the predictions in here would be genuine surprises.

So if I say "Kittel to win polka dots and to finish in Top5 of GC", are you saying that would not be a surprise?

 

[Netserk]

I think we'd have to take a look at what the surprises were last year.

Majka was a big surprise. Nibali was a surprise as well, though ofc not near that of Majka. The French were surprisingly good.

How many bigger surprises were there? Froome and Contador DNF'ed because of bad luck. Cav crashed himself out from the very start. Anything else?

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

I think we'd have to take a look at what the surprises were last year.

Majka was a big surprise. Nibali was a surprise as well, though ofc not near that of Majka. The French were surprisingly good.

How many bigger surprises were there? Froome and Contador DNF'ed because of bad luck. Cav crashed himself out from the very start. Anything else?

- The perfomance of Leopold König? (Although he rode already well in the Vuelta)

Other then that i can't recall something else.

 

[greenedge]

How much Valverde failed to not get on the podium.
When Pinot went ballistic and dropped the whole peleton except for Nibali.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

How much Valverde failed to not get on the podium.
When Pinot went ballistic and dropped the whole peleton including Nibali.

fixed that for you
(I know it was only metres , but he was dropped)

 

[Pulp]

Re:

To go all Ryo and nationalistic for a minute, really hoping for a good showing by Sam Bennett. Might be a stretch for him to win a stage - obviously sprinting is an 'all or nothing' thing where typically whatever sprinter has the best form will hoover up most of the stages, but I'm hoping for high placings for him at least. With Kittel off song the sprints are arguably quite open this year, depending on how strong Cavendish is.

Interesting rider.
Even with Kittel out, he would have to negotiate a quite big sprinter field.
I think he is weaker than Cavendish.
Kristoff should have an edge as well.
I know Bennet took a couple of stages in Bayern, but normally I would say Degenkolb is better as well.
Sagan had a surprisingly strong punch yesterday in Switzerland, though Bennett has a higher top speed and should beat him in a flat sprint.
Greipel always seems to deliver on a stage or two.
I hold Bennett as better than Bouhanni & Coquard, but they too could contend for a stage.
I probably forget someone. EBH is MTN`s "sprinter" but would be surprised if he breaks top 5.
Matthews doing the tour? Modolo?
Anyways, unlike the Giro the competition for sprint stages will be very hard if Kittel doesn`t show in last years
form.
I don`t think anyone will win more than 2-3 stages, and Bennett claiming a win wouldn`t surprise me.

 

[Sasquatch]

Sicard

 

[Akuryo]

Re: Re:

With Contador's overall ambitions in mind, and the fact that Sagan is on the same team, do you think TS will allow Valgren his own opportunity?

No i doubt it. But if Alberto decides to do something on Huy, Bretegne etc. Valgren could be a valuable man to lead out an attack. I don't think you have to have a free role, to be a surprise rider. He could just prove to be a brilliant helper in a lot of different terrain!

Pretty much. Look at Alaphilippe in the Ardennes. At Fleche and LBL he was considered a helper up to 10k before the line and still managed to finish 2nd in both races. He did not have a free role either.

 

[Taxus4a]

I dont know if surprise, becouse he has big results in GT, and he wear the white yersey during lot of days in a Tour, but my surprised rider is Rigoberto Urán.

He need a lot of circunstances, the forst one is that Kiatkowski is stronger than he showed in Swizerland, and with the willing that if is necessary , to work.

He need as well to have luck the first week

But I understand surprised rider not necessary a man in the podium, just a performance unespected, so it couldbe man tyhat some day lost time by the wind,crashes, machanicals,...

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Simon Yates doing very good in the gc. Orica is protecting these Yates brothers a lot. I don't even know if White would let Simon try. I hope he does. I'd love to see him going for gc. Really curious to see what he could do at his young age (or see if he could even last 3 weeks.)

It would be good to see how he goes - he's certainly showing a lot of promise so far - looked to be performing well and coping well in the Dauphine.

At 22 an astute team director might try to give him a little more time to mature before making him suffer through a gt - and Matt White seems to be making good decisions for oge.

Although Fabio Aru has done a couple of gt's and is only 24 now, and seeming to be coping - we'll never know what effect holding him back for a year or two would have had.

It would be good to see Yates in le tour but it would be understandable if he isn't.

Simon Yates will definitely ride the TDF, although I am unsure about his brother. OGE will target a mountain stage win for Yates. GC is definitely off the table. I'd be surprised if yates finishes the race.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Simon Yates doing very good in the gc. Orica is protecting these Yates brothers a lot. I don't even know if White would let Simon try. I hope he does. I'd love to see him going for gc. Really curious to see what he could do at his young age (or see if he could even last 3 weeks.)

White seems to be good at encouraging young talent without over pressuring them. Matthews, Durbridge, Chavez and the Yates brothers look like evidence of this.

Orica will probably let the Yates work together for a good GC spot, then help them chase stages if/when they fall off the pace. Between the Yates, Gerrans, Matthews, Clarke and Meyer they should get at least a stage win somewhere.

I'd hold back Gerrans back for the Vuelta - Too many injuries, not enough race days and lack of form conspire against Gerrans.

I found it interesting that Albasini was doing lots of work in the Tour of Suisse - Like he was in training for the TDF.

 

[rune1107]

Re: Re:

With Contador's overall ambitions in mind, and the fact that Sagan is on the same team, do you think TS will allow Valgren his own opportunity?

No i doubt it. But if Alberto decides to do something on Huy, Bretegne etc. Valgren could be a valuable man to lead out an attack. I don't think you have to have a free role, to be a surprise rider. He could just prove to be a brilliant helper in a lot of different terrain!

Pretty much. Look at Alaphilippe in the Ardennes. At Fleche and LBL he was considered a helper up to 10k before the line and still managed to finish 2nd in both races. He did not have a free role either.

Good point. Although realistically i don't think Valgren will do what Alaphilippe did in the Ardennes. But he has won the U23 L-B-L, and he's got the potential to be a top class classics rider someday. Hopefully he will break through at the TDF!

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Simon Yates doing very good in the gc. Orica is protecting these Yates brothers a lot. I don't even know if White would let Simon try. I hope he does. I'd love to see him going for gc. Really curious to see what he could do at his young age (or see if he could even last 3 weeks.)

Im really curious how they will do. Adam was bad at the dauphine, while Simon showed his best performances until now on longer climbs.

I want to pick one for my tdf poule since both are cheap, but I find it hard to predict who will do better since Adam normally is the better climber.