Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Red Rick]

Maybe he can but so can many others. That is anaerobic. Vingegaard's great advantage is his aerobic endurance. But I am glad we are talking about Vingegaard targeting more than stage racing for once.

Only road cycling fans would ever think 7 minute efforts are anaerobic. It's actually longer than a typical VO2 max effort. In track and field it would be solidly middle distance.

 

[Lequack]

Sorry to burst your bubbles. Vingegaard's chances of beating Pogacar in the World Championship road race are close to 0. Those who studied the parcour and history of said riders know the answer. He should still show up and dare to be great.

I love your new signature!

 

[Cookster15]

Only road cycling fans would ever think 7 minute efforts are anaerobic. It's actually longer than a typical VO2 max effort. In track and field it would be solidly middle distance.

That's true. Officially anything longer than 3 minutes requires the aerobic system. But there is crossover between energy systems. Bottom line is Vingegaard is an aerobic specialist and doesn't have a physiological advantage in shorter efforts typical of 1 day races - not just to Pogacar but also to many other riders. I think he knows his limitations.

 

[Froome]

That's true. Officially anything longer than 3 minutes requires the aerobic system. But there is crossover between energy systems. Bottom line is Vingegaard is an aerobic specialist and doesn't have a physiological advantage in shorter efforts typical of 1 day races - not just to Pogacar but also to many other riders. I think he knows his limitations.

Where did you take that conclusion he has limitations in short efforts like 3 minutes?

He wasn't bad on this short effort.

View: https://youtu.be/78eZt1yIQ8k?si=KpjDnt2mPssdXYbO

 

[Red Rick]

Where did you take that conclusion he has limitations in short efforts like 3 minutes?

He wasn't bad on this short effort.

View: https://youtu.be/78eZt1yIQ8k?si=KpjDnt2mPssdXYbO

Getting cleaned off the wheel isn't the example I would take. That was super heavily down to positioning anyway.

He has won 3 minute uphill finishes anyway.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Where did you take that conclusion he has limitations in short efforts like 3 minutes?

He wasn't bad on this short effort.

View: https://youtu.be/78eZt1yIQ8k?si=KpjDnt2mPssdXYbO

My main takeaways from this are 1) Pogacar was not the same rider in 2022, and 2) Wout is not the same rider since 2022.

 

[Kwaremonster]

I wonder what if (and its a big what if), he turns up at LBL and somehow sucks (by his standards that means not winning). Would he reconsider his participations in the cobbled classics?

 

[Salvarani]

I wonder what if (and its a big what if), he turns up at LBL and somehow sucks (by his standards that means not winning). Would he reconsider his participations in the cobbled classics?

Nah. But it could be that he treats these like Emilia and Tre Valli before Lombardia.

 

[pelotonIQ]

Where did you take that conclusion he has limitations in short efforts like 3 minutes?

He wasn't bad on this short effort.

View: https://youtu.be/78eZt1yIQ8k?si=KpjDnt2mPssdXYbO

My obversations of Vingegaard is that he is not the same rider he was before the crash. This video is 3 years old, a lot has happened since then. Same with WvA.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Nah. But it could be that he treats these like Emilia and Tre Valli before Lombardia.

Except that he just had Flandres plus Roubaix double and has a long season ahead. Liege > Amstel + Fleche. From now on the big ones (Liege and the Tour) should be prioritized IMO, given his status and the fact that he's already won AGR and FW.

 

[Red Rick]

Except that he just had Flandres plus Roubaix double and has a long season ahead. Liege > Amstel + Fleche. From now on the big ones (Liege and the Tour) should be prioritized IMO, given his status and the fact that he's already won AGR and FW.

It is April 18th, 2025, Pogacar just yolo'd a 2nd place in Roubaix and some are still pretending cycling logic such as "choosing your races wisely" applies to Pogacar.

 

[Salvarani]

Except that he just had Flandres plus Roubaix double and has a long season ahead. Liege > Amstel + Fleche. From now on the big ones (Liege and the Tour) should be prioritized IMO, given his status and the fact that he's already won AGR and FW.

My point is Amstel and Fleche are just prep before Liege.

Like Emilia and Tre Valli has usually been before Lombardia.

But if he wins the prep races as well, then happy days.

 

[Salvarani]

My obversations of Vingegaard is that he is not the same rider he was before the crash. This video is 3 years old, a lot has happened since then. Same with WvA.

He doesnt want to race. It is ridiculous.

 

[Red Rick]

Vingegaard was the only one to follow Pogacar on the San Luca, althoug that's a 5 minute something effort rather than a 2-3 minute climb, and I guess it was hardly Pogacar's craziest effort last year. And that one was after the Itzulia crash.

 

[Salvarani]

Ok, anyway.

 

[Peyroteo94]

C'mon seriously? Who is gonna follow Nys or WVa...? Like Roglic doesn't exist? Roglic is also 3rd favourite on this route. Tratnik, Novak and Mohoric are also good enough helpers. Last year route was not really for Roglic and he wasn't really in good shape after Vuelta(this is also the reason why i don't think its good idea to go TdF-Vuelta-WC-GdL even for Pogi). Slovenia never had and will never have better team that this, so if not now on this route,this year,then where and when?

Roglic has been a non factor in classics

 

[Peyroteo94]

What happened to Pogacar after the crash. A lot of bad luck, unfortunately.

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View: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DIgy7sRsCZT/?igsh=MW0zdngzaWwzYmhsZQ==

 

[Peyroteo94]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1912131838446915648

View: https://x.com/CyclingWorlds/status/1912131838446915648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1912131838446915648%7Ctwgr%5E265b2caef265a3d7798c32c1fcb23f5f801108fb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fvelo.outsideonline.com%2Froad%2Froad-racing%2Fuci-unleashes-monster-road-route-for-2027-mega-worlds%2F

Holy Moly, there is no chance against him unless big nations attack Slovenia early in the race and Pogacar is left alone.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It is April 18th, 2025, Pogacar just yolo'd a 2nd place in Roubaix and some are still pretending cycling logic such as "choosing your races wisely" applies to Pogacar.

He also feels fatigue. This is why he will probably have difficulties to win WC double after a Tour-Vuelta. Without the Vuelta, winning WC double would be a easy task.

 

[Red Rick]

Roglic has been a non factor in classics

Holy Moly, there is no chance against him unless big nations attack Slovenia early in the race and Pogacar is left alone.

There is 0 chance Pogacar he loses this even if he were to get isolated somehow. This is not a route where raids happen or matter, because the % of time you're on a flat section is gonna be lower than the % of time you're climbing. The race that's most like this one is the 5 laps of Emilia, with the subtle difference that this is 20 laps instead of 5.

Because the flat section will matter so little and because tactics and raids shouldn't be possible, this route is awful for Evenepoel. The route is such that Evenepoel cannot get a way on a flat without Pogacar being able to close it uphill with his eyes closed, and on this terrain he is very easily favored 1v1 in a long solo anyway.

Roglic has been a factor in hilly one day races, even if it's not at the standard of his performances in races like Emilia. And that's partially by choice and partially by circumstance of burning out by the end of the year after doing the Vuelta. He was in contention for the WC medals in Imola after the Tour.

Roglic is ofcourse not gonna threaten Pogacar, but I could see him benefit from wheelsucking G2 after Pogacar takes off with 8 laps to go

 

[Peyroteo94]

As for Pogacar, there is 0 chance he loses this even if he were to get isolated somehow. This is not a route where raids happen or matter, because the % of time you're on a flat section is gonna be lower than the % of time you're climbing. The race that's most like this one is the 5 laps of Emilia, with the subtle difference that this is 20 laps instead of 5.

Because the flat section will matter so little and because tactics and raids shouldn't be possible, this route is awful for Evenepoel.

Roglic has been a factor in hilly one day races, even if it's not at the standard of his performances in races like Emilia. And that's partially by choice and partially by circumstance of burning out by the end of the year after doing the Vuelta. He was in contention for the WC medals in Imola after the Tour.

Roglic is ofcourse not gonna threaten Pogacar, but I could see him benefit from wheelsucking G2 after Pogacar takes off with 8 laps to go

I can't agree with you. Maybe I didn't express my opinion well but I was referring to monuments/WC when I talk about classics. If you compare his performances in Emilia and then his performances in GdL, we can see how his level drops after 5 hours of racing. We saw the same in FW/LBL 2021. His performance in Tokyo was also very weak in the RR and then he was doing his best TT performance of his life.
Maybe I'm wrong but I no longer have expectations with Roglic when we talk about monuments/WC. His LBL was really an outlier (he had other decent performances but never close to win).

 

[Cycling111]

My obversations of Vingegaard is that he is not the same rider he was before the crash. This video is 3 years old, a lot has happened since then. Same with WvA.

Not just because of the accident; there are riders who have had a very short-lived or prime in cycling.
There are riders who, even without injuries or accidents, have had a prime for two or three years, and others affected by accidents, either physically or mentally.

Before 2022, Vingegaard had a good 2021, but far from being a monster like he was in the 2022 and 2023 TDF. In 2021 Pogacar sentences the TDF in stage 8

Laporte hasn't had any accidents, but he started getting sick in 2023. In 2021, he was a good rider but no favorite, in 2022 he became a favorite in the big classics, and in 2024 he was no longer a candidate and wasn't even competing in them. Sudden changes in three years.

When you debate these things, you realize the stupidity of giving a GT to a domestique. OMG, you can't just give a GT. In sports, you never know what the immediate future holds, especially in a sport like cycling, where there are so many accidents.

They criticize Pogacar for Cannibal, as f this weren't a sport where tomorrow he could get hit by a truck while training, and if he doesn't die, he might have to retire.

Vingegaard is still at a good age. Although he'll turn 30 next year, and is older than its direct rival in GT, he shouldn't be out of competition for so long and waste his moment so much.
The TDF is his biggest goal, but, he'll be competing less than a 36 Roglic.
Since he's not doing Ardennes, he should go to Romandy.

 

[Peyroteo94]

My obversations of Vingegaard is that he is not the same rider he was before the crash. This video is 3 years old, a lot has happened since then. Same with WvA.

I also has this fear but I will not draw any conclusions before his match with Pogacar in the Dauphiné.

 

[Rackham]

The Dauphiné starts a week later this year as well compared to last year. So if Vinge really doesn't race until then, that's a long time without racing. It means between the 2024 TdF and the 2025 TdF, he'll have done what? The Tour of Poland last August... Algarve in February, a few days in Paris-Nice and then the Dauphiné.

That's approaching what the French would call intermittent du spectacle levels of non-work.

 

[Cycling111]

I can't agree with you. Maybe I didn't express my opinion well but I was referring to monuments/WC when I talk about classics. If you compare his performances in Emilia and then his performances in GdL, we can see how his level drops after 5 hours of racing. We saw the same in FW/LBL 2021. His performance in Tokyo was also very weak in the RR and then he was doing his best TT performance of his life.
Maybe I'm wrong but I no longer have expectations with Roglic when we talk about monuments/WC. His LBL was really an outlier (he had other decent performances but never close to win).

I think the same. Roglic always had a weakness in races over 250 km, and it's become more pronounced with age.

If it weren't for Alaphilippe's maneuver, that Liège would have been a sprint between Pogacar and Hirschi.
Considering how young they were and that Pogacar had won the Tour very young and could be more tired due to lack of experience.
The incredible thing is that he has the same Monuments as Van Aert; that day he had all the luck that Van Aert didn't have in Roubaix 2023.

At no other time he´s been so close to winning a classic of more than 250km.
Only for Lombardia 2023 has he been a favorite for such a long race.

In 2023, Pogacar arrived worse than even to Lombardia, and Roglic arrived to Lombardia better than ever. He looked to strong in previous italian classics. But once again, in a longer race like Lombardia, he showed the weaknesses he hadn't seen in the previous Italian Classics.

Lombardia 2023 is the exapmple of what Pogacar and Roglic are like in long-distance Classics. One arrived worse than ever, and Roglic better dan ever. But in the final part, with the accumulated mileage, Roglic's strength failed him.
The result was again the same because Pogacar compensates for the long distance better, and Roglic doesn't.

This seems to be Vingegaard's problem in one-day races.
He doesn't seem to be able to assimilate a long effort in a single day.

Although Vingegaard isn't close to Roglic. Roglic struggles with long distances, but based on what he's results so far, he's much better than Vignegaard.