Now everyone knows that Pogacar wouldn't be doing the Vuelta, but the reality is that last year when he was asked if he would do two GT for another season, he said yes for a few more seasons.
And in an interview from earlier this year, Javier Sola talks about doing the Tour-Vuelta and that Pogacar's next challenge would be to do Giro-Tour-Vuelta in the same year.
Something has changed.
Maybe the Tour was more difficult than they expected. The Tour will be difficult as long as Visma & Vingo are his rivals. He needs a lighter schedule. Without Flandres+Roubaix and Ardennes triple the chances would be higher. Just 3 classics next spring (i.e. Strade + MSR + Liege) would be a more feasible schedule for the double.