Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Peyroteo94]

Remco's TdF 2024 form was incredible in the mountains.
That form hasn't been surpassed since by anyone not named Pogacar or Vingegaard.

Unless you think Remco's form last year was the outlier and he won't achieve it again. In that case... i think it's too soon to tell.
I just know the guy is a prodigy. He's one of a kind on the flats with a super engine in a small frame.

The stars aligned last year. His level in the mountains was overrated. He made the difference in two medium mountain stages (stage 11 and stage 17) and both TTs. In the high mountain stages, he gained less time to the "first human".

Galibier - 0"
Pla d'Adet - 9"
PdB - 1'03"
Isola - 18"
Couillole - 35"

MM stages and TTs:
Stage 11 - 1'22"
Stage 17 - 2'13"
Flat TT - 52"
MTT - 56"

He was clearly the third best climber but he was closer to humans than closer to Pogacar or Vingegaard in the high mountains (I will repeat, in the high mountains).

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

We have skill in cycling but it's not like Pidcock can win a GT just because he is 10 seconds faster on a descent.
The large majority of GT wins is conquered by a rider who dominates (or don't lose time) the mountain stages. Let's see the Tour:
2025 - Best climber won the race
2024 - same
2023 - same
2022 - same
2021 - same
2020 - same
2019 - same (mediocre time triallist)
2018 - same
2017 - same
2016 - same

In the last 10 years, the best climber (or close to be) won the Tour. Was Froome or Thomas very skillful? No.
Bernal? No. Pogacar? Above average but not MVP's level. Vingo the same.

To win a GT, a rider just needs to be average when we talk about skills.
But to win GTs, you can't be an average climber or even a good climber. You need to be close to the best at least. You need to be the rider who pushes the highest W/Kg on climbs.

All you've shown is that, among the reasonably skilled professional riders at the top of their sport, the strongest one tends to win. Nobody's saying you need MvdP skills to win the Tour. Andy Schleck is proof of that. It can make a difference in avoiding crashes or surviving cobbles on a stage, but it's not as important as w/kg. That doesn't mean skills aren't required in pro bike racing. This isn't cross country or a 100m sprint.

 

[yaco]

yes but he wants to skip the tour one year, he has said so multiple times and 2028 is perfect because olympics would be difficult to win doing the tour, plus he could also do vuelta if he skips the tour

The whole peleton will ride the Olympics and the the TDF. Few, if any, will only focus on the Olympics.

 

[ingsve]

How long do you think Pogacar will have the motivation to keep going with the same dominance and winning everything? I'd imagine that the same thing might happen as with other athletes who have won everything they desire, that their motivation to keep training the same way goes down and they find new challenges for themselves.

For example if Roubaix keeps eluding him, do you think at some point he would try and bulk up and sacrifice GTs in order to have a better shot at a race like P-R?

 

[AmRacer]

How long do you think Pogacar will have the motivation to keep going with the same dominance and winning everything? I'd imagine that the same thing might happen as with other athletes who have won everything they desire, that their motivation to keep training the same way goes down and they find new challenges for themselves.

For example if Roubaix keeps eluding him, do you think at some point he would try and bulk up and sacrifice GTs in order to have a better shot at a race like P-R?

The year Mathieu's motivation is fading, Pogi will win PR without bulking up.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

How long do you think Pogacar will have the motivation to keep going with the same dominance and winning everything? I'd imagine that the same thing might happen as with other athletes who have won everything they desire, that their motivation to keep training the same way goes down and they find new challenges for themselves.

For example if Roubaix keeps eluding him, do you think at some point he would try and bulk up and sacrifice GTs in order to have a better shot at a race like P-R?

Pogacar started big successes very young for a cyclist. He won his 2nd Tour when he was still 22 yo. It's not just a normal prime: we are talking about a guy who is #1 for 200 weeks without any break. The pressure and expectations to win every race take their toll. He mentioned something about 2028. If he ends his career then most people will perceive it as early but this would probably mean 8-9 consecutive years at the absolute top of cycling (it's really a lot) and retiring before decline phase.

 

[Cycling111]

Pogacar started big successes very young for a cyclist. He won his 2nd Tour when he was still 22 yo. It's not just a normal prime: we are talking about a guy who is #1 for 200 weeks without any break. The pressure and expectations to win every race take their toll. He mentioned something about 2028. If he ends his career then most people will perceive it as early but this would probably mean 8-9 consecutive years at the absolute top of cycling (it's really a lot) and retiring before decline phase.

He didn't mention retiring in 2028, but rather that he'd already be thinking about it because he only has two years left on his contract. In 2030.

 

[HashRouge]

It's interesting, I see a lot of posters saying things like "well he won't get close to Mercx's palmares if he doesn't do x, y, z". But I wonder how much Pogacar cares about that, especially at the moment when he seems to be feeling a bit down and burnt out. It must be quite exhausting to always be compared to someone else when, as Pogacar says, if he stopped now he would be happy with what he's achieved. His palmares is ridiculous.

 

[YavorD]

He didn't mention retiring in 2028, but rather that he'd already be thinking about it because he only has two years left on his contract. In 2030.

I wouldn't call it sure that he will complete his contract. If he is able to win everything big, he may even retire in 2028.

I'm not surprised though.. Around February I shared an opinion that he will retire at 30 or 31.

 

[iBanesto]

 

[Peter von]

How long do you think Pogacar will have the motivation to keep going with the same dominance and winning everything? I'd imagine that the same thing might happen as with other athletes who have won everything they desire, that their motivation to keep training the same way goes down and they find new challenges for themselves.

For example if Roubaix keeps eluding him, do you think at some point he would try and bulk up and sacrifice GTs in order to have a better shot at a race like P-R?

It's really tough, there are so many factors.

I think he was quite happy with this years P-R performance. He was very much in contention and probably fancies his chances at getting to the velodrome with MVP and beating him in the sprint, he knows he won't win every sprint but probaly backs himself to win 1/2 or 2/5.
So i think he will try this formula a few years or until he succeeds.

So I don't think he will willingly sacrifice the Tour as it stands now.
Maybe he will make some changes he hope won't loose him the Tour, like adding a little bit of extra weight for the classics and dropping them again before July or maybe doing more cobbled races.

 

[P4rthen0n]

The stars aligned last year. His level in the mountains was overrated. He made the difference in two medium mountain stages (stage 11 and stage 17) and both TTs. In the high mountain stages, he gained less time to the "first human".

Galibier - 0"
Pla d'Adet - 9"
PdB - 1'03"
Isola - 18"
Couillole - 35"

MM stages and TTs:
Stage 11 - 1'22"
Stage 17 - 2'13"
Flat TT - 52"
MTT - 56"

He was clearly the third best climber but he was closer to humans than closer to Pogacar or Vingegaard in the high mountains (I will repeat, in the high mountains).

You can compare time differences to others, but i think it makes more sense to evaluate W/kg, like you mentioned in the previous post (W/kg generally is the deciding factor to win a GT).

In that sense, you can't get anybody else (other than Vingegaard or Pogacar) with better numbers than Remco had in the 2024 Tour.

 

[Cycling111]

I wouldn't call it sure that he will complete his contract. If he is able to win everything big, he may even retire in 2028.

I'm not surprised though.. Around February I shared an opinion that he will retire at 30 or 31.

That's speculation.

You're overanalyzing statements made in the third week of the Tour. And yet, even in that contexte, hasn't even considered retiring in 2028, but in 2030.

 

[Peyroteo94]

You can compare time differences to others, but i think it makes more sense to evaluate W/kg, like you mentioned in the previous post (W/kg generally is the deciding factor to win a GT).

In that sense, you can't get anybody else (other than Vingegaard or Pogacar) with better numbers than Remco had in the 2024 Tour.

That's stupid to compare w/kg in different races, different climbs, etc. Remco did better numbers than Pogacar/Vingegaard 2023. Would he beat them? Hell no.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It's interesting, I see a lot of posters saying things like "well he won't get close to Mercx's palmares if he doesn't do x, y, z". But I wonder how much Pogacar cares about that, especially at the moment when he seems to be feeling a bit down and burnt out. It must be quite exhausting to always be compared to someone else when, as Pogacar says, if he stopped now he would be happy with what he's achieved. His palmares is ridiculous.

He said 2 years ago he wanted to be the best ever

 

[YavorD]

That's speculation.

You're overanalyzing statements made in the third week of the Tour. And yet, even in that contexte, hasn't even considered retiring in 2028, but in 2030.

No necessarily 2028, maybe 2029.
I think the only chance he fulfills (and eventually extends) his contract is both:

• He is strong enough to win a lot of races
• He still hasn't won MSR/PR/Vuelta.

If he wins everything and the OG by 2028, he could retire and I would say it's rather likely. If he finds it hard to win races he will probably retire as well. I don't see him continuing Sagan style or even Valverde.

 

[Red Rick]

It's interesting, I see a lot of posters saying things like "well he won't get close to Mercx's palmares if he doesn't do x, y, z". But I wonder how much Pogacar cares about that, especially at the moment when he seems to be feeling a bit down and burnt out. It must be quite exhausting to always be compared to someone else when, as Pogacar says, if he stopped now he would be happy with what he's achieved. His palmares is ridiculous.

It's lived experience versus fans living vicariously through an athlete. Fans get only the races and results to live through but not the process and struggles of getting there.

 

[BubbaChuck]

They made goat retire at 27,cause we live in softest era possible.Trully cooked times.

 

[scribers]

I would have retired at 19. But I didn’t know it was an option.

 

[AmRacer]

They made goat retire at 27,cause we live in softest era possible.Trully cooked times.

He can retire after next Olympics

 

[Peyroteo94]

Last year Wellens said Pogacar is feeling the pressure of being very famous.

 

[Shortcut]

I see that most forums are paying huge attention to Pogacar’s latest statements, even though he only said that he will START thinking about retirement after the 2028 Olympics. So, not that he will retire then, but that he will start thinking about it. He has a contract until 2030, and he will definitely fulfill it because there is too much money at stake.
I personally see the problem in motivation, because every one of his defeats is portrayed as the biggest tragedy, and immediately the narrative shifts to “he’s not the same anymore.” But if he wins, then it’s suddenly boring. In the spring, he dominantly won “only” FW, even though it is extremely difficult to win it in the other way he did, along with LBL.Yet right after that, people started talking about “boring racing.” The incredible battles between him and MvDP across three monuments were immediately forgotten.
He dominated the Tour, and when he started winning stages with ease, it was “boring” again. If he doesn’t win, then the problem is that he’s not attacking and that it’s dull. Basically, whatever he does, it’s never right.
Because he’s in the GOAT discussions, he’s expected to be in top form all the time and peak three times a year, which is psychologically extremely hard—especially when he’s the only one doing that and still getting criticized for it.
Doing the Vuelta would have been way too exhausting, which I’ve been saying since the start of the year. Winning the World Championships time trial is probably a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity because he will never get a better course profile, and the same goes for the road race. Also, winning a monument five times in a row is a unique achievement.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I see that most forums are paying huge attention to Pogacar’s latest statements, even though he only said that he will START thinking about retirement after the 2028 Olympics. So, not that he will retire then, but that he will start thinking about it. He has a contract until 2030, and he will definitely fulfill it because there is too much money at stake.
I personally see the problem in motivation, because every one of his defeats is portrayed as the biggest tragedy, and immediately the narrative shifts to “he’s not the same anymore.” But if he wins, then it’s suddenly boring. In the spring, he dominantly won “only” FW, even though it is extremely difficult to win it in the other way he did, along with LBL.Yet right after that, people started talking about “boring racing.” The incredible battles between him and MvDP across three monuments were immediately forgotten.
He dominated the Tour, and when he started winning stages with ease, it was “boring” again. If he doesn’t win, then the problem is that he’s not attacking and that it’s dull. Basically, whatever he does, it’s never right.
Because he’s in the GOAT discussions, he’s expected to be in top form all the time and peak three times a year, which is psychologically extremely hard—especially when he’s the only one doing that and still getting criticized for it.
Doing the Vuelta would have been way too exhausting, which I’ve been saying since the start of the year. Winning the World Championships time trial is probably a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity because he will never get a better course profile, and the same goes for the road race. Also, winning a monument five times in a row is a unique achievement.

There is no such thing as starting to think on retirement in 2028. If he is saying this, it means he is already thinking about this. Not in 2028 but in 2025.

 

[Cycling111]

There is no such thing as starting to think on retirement in 2028. If he is saying this, it means he is already thinking about this. Not in 2028 but in 2025.

You're overinterpreting something he said on the final day of the Tour. And yet, what he said points more to 2030. The rest of the year, his attitude and statements have been different.

When Healy asked him about this in Liège, he alluded to 2030.

 

[Unchained]

I also wonder about the logistics. It's one thing to ride the Olympics in Paris immediately after finishing the TDF, but how much time would you need between the two races crossing the Atlantic?

Great points, and Los Angeles is a completely different animal.
Top riders will need travel days and will need days ( plural) for acclamation..I don't know for sure but 4,5 days before your first event and if cyclists can train in an Olympic village..
But if someone is getting driven from the airport, changing your clothes for the Olympics or TDF is going to be disastrous!!
I say that in jest of couse but its sort of true..There is great support for racers in LA but wondering about rider volume? In most of the US, but especially Los Angeles law enforcement has zero understanding, consideration for follow cars or traffic disruption without extensive permitting process.. So you can have a follow and camera car, just can't do it as impromptu as in Spain, rural France or Italy..
There is great riding immediately outside of Los Angeles, even as close as Malibu, Pasadena, Angeles National Forest.. but if there are dozens of splinter groups doing it ,sounds like chaos.. And with big riders, federations will be working with trade teams.. Mexico, Slovenia,Denmark likely to have hybrid representation.. Pog is not going to be taking daily instructions from national team coach..
There might be some hybrid lodging situation for bike racers but for TT and road race candidates living in the Olympic Village and riding in and out for decent training is not possible, hotels located outside are best solution and get shuttled to the races.