Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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I don't think that is a "problem", just a concern. Pog and UAE just need to be wary.

As for team strengths, both Ineos and Jumbo can have a stronger teams but it comes back to how strong is the leader relative to the competition. Two examples that come to mind are Ineos 2022 Giro and Jumbo in 2020 TdF. Very strong teams but in the end the leaders were the difference.

Looking at their leaders, Vingegaard obviously looks closest to Pog after today, Thomas I think is just hanging on as best he can and seems to be aiming for a podium. Poor Roglic will likely lose too much time before he finds his legs which I hope he does.
Sure, but, as long as Ineos and Jumbo have several riders still in the top GC game, they can selectively send them up the road early, now one, now another, like a multi-front attack, and UAE can't possibly cover all the moves. If UAE were strong enough, like the Sky of yesteryear, then they just set a high enough tempo and good night. But I fear they are not and this could be Pog's only real danger, his Achille's heal if the other teams coordinate properly, in theory anyway. In practice, though, perhaps it's like you say. At any rate, could be interesting to see how things tactically develope from here on out in this Tour.

On the other hand, UAE had to work quite hard yesterday (was it wise, as has been pondered?) and barely, just barely had the reserves to set up Pogi for the win and even he just bettered Vingegaard in the end (demonstrating the Dane has upped his game and likely won't be dropped in the Alpes by the Slovenian this year). Now, what if Jumbo sends Roglic on the attack with Van Aert on the Galibier, with Yates or Martinez or even Pidcock in the move? UAE will have to burn matches to contain it or real it back in entirely by Colle di Granon or Alpe d'Huez depending on the day, at which point Pog is either on his own or with just one helper on Granon or the Alpe. And if he has just a so-so day and Vingegaard is flying and/or Thomas is going well? Could be trouble. Of course, Pog could be prodigious again and dominate his rivals. But, to repeat, things might not be as straightforward as they have appeared thus far.
 
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Your mate and his 'very weak cyclist' argument seems to be gone, Lance "best cyclist of all time" gladly take over now as the recurring character.
Hey, this gave me a good laugh… :) As you correctly noticed, I like to add some irony, some wink, to my posts, every now and then… Makes me glad and happy if someone (like you, in this case) then reacts with the same kind of humour. I appreciate this… :) - writing in the forum is even more a pleasure if we joke or exaggerate a little bit, sometimes… ;)
 
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Stage 7 seems to have settled the forum down a bit as a whole. There's been a bit of both extreme views in regards to Pogacar's potential/likely dominance: on the one hand you have the "Oh no, he's taken handfuls of seconds over some rivals already, it's over!" When it's usually minutes that separate 1st from 2nd in the end, and when roughly 40% of pre race contenders suffer unexpectedly negatively (bad crash, illness, just off form) at some point during the 3 weeks, saying the Tour is over is jumping the gun a bit. Emotionally, it's like if your football team is a goal up, but you still lack confidence in a positive outcome, whereas if you're a goal down it's, "Oh, there's no way we can turn this around", even if history suggests otherwise. It's an emotional over rating of the chances of the outcome that you don't want to happen, happening. On the other side of the coin you have the glass is half full fans, over rating the chances of their favourite rider (at least with a positive mindset, rather than negative), this is probably me with Roglic.......he's in a horrible position, not just against his main rival, but against his equal (enough) teammate, and with serious questions about his physical condition. I will dream of a successful long range attack in the Alps, but will race circumstances even allow this even if his body feels sensations?

Pogacar is around $1.30 in betting, suggesting around a 75% chance of winning. No matter how you look at it, at worst he's probably about a 60% chance and at best about a 85% chance. At this point in time you'd pick him to win, but wouldn't be overly shocked if he didn't. If it was anyone other than Vingegaard winning that would be very surprising, with Thomas and Roglic next in line, but still highly unlikely eventual winners.
 
Incredibly, that would complete his podium set in the Tour.

I see Thomas being more than satisfied with that, but not Ineos. If they can keep 4 guys high in the standings by next week then I think that they will try something in the Alps. Defensive with Thomas and aggressive with their other gc riders (I still don't know what to make of Pidcock though).
I don't think Ineos really try to beat the Slovenians and will quietly settle for 3rd if it comes down to it.
 
If the Slovenians get 2nd and 3rd and they don't beat them they can hardly get a podium slot.
I'm just pulling your leg.

I honestly don't agree with any of the final predictions regarding this TdF being thrown around at this point, at all. I find everyone overrated & equally underrated at the same time. Pogacar isn't God on a bike, Jonas V isn't the new best thing & Ineos won't magically develop super tactics. There's also a huge heatwave coming to France over the next two weeks (check the forecasts, it looks brutal).

Add Covid into the mix & I believe this is still totally wide open. It also makes me laugh when I read Grischa Niermann say Roglic is two minutes behind Jonas ergo he probably won't win the TdF now. No, the only reason Primoz won't win the TdF is because he's injured. But all these time gaps are so insignificant all it takes is one small crash, mechanical sickness, bad day, heatwave, positive Covid test etc. to throw the whole thing wide open for anyone within 5 minutes on GC.
 
Heatwave in the high Alps you said? This Tour is wide open at the moment. Feltet.dk's analyst, the infamous Emil Axelgaard (the least chauvinistic person to grace the earth), believes that the Tour might have a new favourite after yesterday in Vingegaard, despite Pogi winning two in a row.

Rarely have I looked so much forward to the Alps
 
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From today's la Gazzetta dello Sport:

He now grinds record: he's already won 8 stages of the french race at 23. If a comparison is needed, well then Merckx - the one and only Merckx - hadn't even one at Tadej's age. The Cannibal had not even raced the Tour yet (whereas Pogacar has already won two).

Both Pogacar and Vingegaard climbed Super Planche in 29'26", 21.6 kmh average speed, half a minute better than the record of the house boss Thinaut Pinot. They devoured the last km at 23.1 kmh.

An interview with Fabio Aru:

What strikes you the most about him?
Aru: "He has an enormous talent. He was born to ride a bike. The pressure doesn't fase him in the least and this too doesn't surprise me, because he is so strong."

What's his character like?
Aru: "Very competitive. He loves to win every time he can. The word Cannibal has already been used for Eddy Merckx and I don't want to repeat it, however, it renders the idea."
 
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Heatwave in the high Alps you said? This Tour is wide open at the moment. Feltet.dk's analyst, the infamous Emil Axelgaard (the least chauvinistic person to grace the earth), believes that the Tour might have a new favourite after yesterday in Vingegaard, despite Pogi winning two in a row.

Rarely have I looked so much forward to the Alps
I fail to see how Vingegaard is suddenly the new favorite.
He has only lost time so far, is 30 seconds down and is the worse TT'er.

Pogacar is still very much THE favorite to win but it might be closer than people anticipated.
 
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I fail to see how Vingegaard is suddenly the new favorite.
He has only lost time so far, is 30 seconds down and is the worse TT'er.

Pogacar is still very much THE favorite to win but it might be closer than people anticipated.
Only 3 factors I see that could go against Pogi. Covid, huge fall or mechanical or if the temperatures will go in high 30s or even 40s and Vingegaard & JV exploit this. Pogi is just not "happy bunny" when it gets too freaking hot.

All things aside he is still hot favourite to win it all.
 
Btw., how much do you think the "I just love to ride my bike" nice guy Pogacar is just image/PR? They just showed the Majka video from yesterday and there his tone and words towards his teammate were quite assertive. And don't get me wrong - that might be needed as leader, and doesn't make Pogacar a bad guy. But its not exactly in line with his media personality.
 
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Btw., how much do you think the "I just love to ride my bike" nice guy Pogacar is just image/PR? They just showed the Majka video from yesterday and there his tone and words towards his teammate were quite assertive. And don't get me wrong - that might be needed as leader, and doesn't make Pogacar a bad guy. But its not exactly in line with his media personality.
Are you talking about this? If so, then I don't see how this is supposed to be at odds with his image.

View: https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1545439773027876868
 
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