Stage 7 seems to have settled the forum down a bit as a whole. There's been a bit of both extreme views in regards to Pogacar's potential/likely dominance: on the one hand you have the "Oh no, he's taken handfuls of seconds over some rivals already, it's over!" When it's usually minutes that separate 1st from 2nd in the end, and when roughly 40% of pre race contenders suffer unexpectedly negatively (bad crash, illness, just off form) at some point during the 3 weeks, saying the Tour is over is jumping the gun a bit. Emotionally, it's like if your football team is a goal up, but you still lack confidence in a positive outcome, whereas if you're a goal down it's, "Oh, there's no way we can turn this around", even if history suggests otherwise. It's an emotional over rating of the chances of the outcome that you don't want to happen, happening. On the other side of the coin you have the glass is half full fans, over rating the chances of their favourite rider (at least with a positive mindset, rather than negative), this is probably me with Roglic.......he's in a horrible position, not just against his main rival, but against his equal (enough) teammate, and with serious questions about his physical condition. I will dream of a successful long range attack in the Alps, but will race circumstances even allow this even if his body feels sensations?
Pogacar is around $1.30 in betting, suggesting around a 75% chance of winning. No matter how you look at it, at worst he's probably about a 60% chance and at best about a 85% chance. At this point in time you'd pick him to win, but wouldn't be overly shocked if he didn't. If it was anyone other than Vingegaard winning that would be very surprising, with Thomas and Roglic next in line, but still highly unlikely eventual winners.