Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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And what will Aru go after then? Top 30? If Aru will go after top 10, and most consider Pogačar better then Aru, what are people expecting from Pogačar then? To me it is obvious, most people expect at least top 5 if not for the podium.
 
I think people do not expect Aru in the Top10 this year (would be nice for my game points, though). Top 20 for Aru, 5-10 for
Pogacar, that's my expectation.

Hm, although it looks like an exciting route with lots of contenders it might all come down to this PdBF time trial in the end. Good for him he knows how to beat Roglic on something like this. But maybe it won't rain.
 
And what will Aru go after then? Top 30? If Aru will go after top 10, and most consider Pogačar better then Aru, what are people expecting from Pogačar then? To me it is obvious, most people expect at least top 5 if not for the podium.
There is a difference between personal goals and public expectations. If Aru wants to go after top 10, that's good for him (well, maybe not, but that's his choice). He can even go after a podium for all i care. That doesn't mean he'll get there, neither that we should expect him to. I will eat my right shoe if Aru finishes in the top 10 with this year's lineup. Top 20 would be possible. That's already 20-40 minutes behind the winner. There probably aren't even 30 guys riding for GC anyway. But what Aru wants or says shouldn't determine Pogacar's goals.
Pogacar and Evenepoel share what we call in Dutch "alles mag, niets moet". Anything they do is ok, no pressure. If they drop outside of the top 10, completely blowing up in the third week, that's no problem. This Tour isn't last year's Vuelta, and the Giro isn't Volta ao Algarve. On the other hand, they don't have to act like they would be happy getting inside the top 30. Both are eager and ambitious. I can't imagine either of them being pleased with that. The fact that people expect more from them than riding an anonymous race for 20th, is because both have shown to have certain qualities that can take them very far, even now. But it's still uncharted territory for both, so i refuse to believe people would point fingers at Pogacar if he "fails" to reach the podium.
 
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Aru was diagnosed with the constriction of the iliac artery and that got sorted out. He is in his cycling prime (age). I feel that aiming for top 10 is a must, for Aru. That is on why Aru got selected as captain. I don't feel that is a bluff on UAE side. Pogačar is too well known already, for being able to deceive other teams like that, tactically. In my opinion Pogačar main goal really is to get more experience and to learn. I feel that nobody from his team will try to stop him, trying out whatever he wants to try out. Like for example staying close to Roglič, and aiming for the podium. He likely could end up doing that. His team, as a whole, on the other hand, likely isn't going to the Tour with the main goal set of supporting that. We will get to see more of that in a season or two.
 
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For what it's worth, I expect Pogi to top5 the Tour and I'd be disappointed if he doesn't.

I don't get the comparison with Evenepoel. Evenepoel is a monster talent with no experience whatsoever in GTs. He could win the Giro or finish 70th, none of that would truly surprise me or disappoint me since there's no evidence of what he's capable over three weeks of racing. I'd be disappointed if he didn't win a TT, which is a different matter.

Pogacar on the other hand is one of the most promising GT riders entering the cycling world in the past 20 years, he podiumed his first ever attempt at a GT (how many times has that happened in the 21st century?) and was probably at his best towards the end of the race, which is rather unusual for such a young rider. Why should I tamper my expectations? What have Yates, Landa, Lopez, etc done to warrant being bigger favorites than Pogi in this year's Tour?
 
For what it's worth, I expect Pogi to top5 the Tour and I'd be disappointed if he doesn't.

I don't get the comparison with Evenepoel. Evenepoel is a monster talent with no experience whatsoever in GTs. He could win the Giro or finish 70th, none of that would truly surprise me or disappoint me since there's no evidence of what he's capable over three weeks of racing. I'd be disappointed if he didn't win a TT, which is a different matter.

Pogacar on the other hand is one of the most promising GT riders entering the cycling world in the past 20 years, he podiumed his first ever attempt at a GT (how many times has that happened in the 21st century?) and was probably at his best towards the end of the race, which is rather unusual for such a young rider. Why should I tamper my expectations? What have Yates, Landa, Lopez, etc done to warrant being bigger favorites than Pogi in this year's Tour?
Pretty much. I some people dismiss his podium a little bit because it was 'only' the Vuelta. His 3rd stage win was up there with the best rides by GC guys this year, and it's not like the Tour had a stellar top 5 or something either lol.

The way I see it, Pogacar's biggeset weakness might be the heat, in which case this Tour de France might actually a big opportunity in disguise.

The 2nd question I guess is if Pogacar is as good on the super big climbs as he is on the slightly middling ones. That's often a big difference between the Vuelta and the other 2 GTs.
 
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It's not because it's "only the vuelta". Because the climbs in the Vuelta are shorter. Because the overall pace is significantly lower in the Vuelta. Because the big boys in the Vuelta had already ridden another GT and didn't make it their big goal of the season, except for maybe Valverde... who finished ahead of him. Because they all underestimated him going in.

We know (unlike with Evenepoel) he can survive 3 weeks, but expecting him to top 5 in the most stacked TDF in recent history, based on last year's vuelta? Not impossible but certainly not a done deal.
 
I agree with that notion. Look, there aren't enough superlatives for Pogchamp. He is special and then some. But using his Vuelta as a major reference is questionable to me to say the least. How many riders have you ever heard saying the Vuelta is their seasonal goal, something they'll target all year? That mostly consists of youngsters and debutants. Other than that, Vuelta contenders are those who failed and/or crashed out in an earlier grand tour and those who have already done a hard Giro. We are two years from neo Enric Más finishing 2nd overall, to put things in perspective.
 
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I read the article and i especially like the comments Hauptman made. It shows Hauptman isn't hyping or rushing things. I was afraid that might be the case.

P.S. For me personally a stage win and/or a place in top 10 would be a great success in this years Tour for Pogačar. Saying if Pogačar doesn't finish in top 5, that would be a disappointment. That is not fair to Pogačar.
 
I agree with that notion. Look, there aren't enough superlatives for Pogchamp. He is special and then some. But using his Vuelta as a major reference is questionable to me to say the least. How many riders have you ever heard saying the Vuelta is their seasonal goal, something they'll target all year? That mostly consists of youngsters and debutants. Other than that, Vuelta contenders are those who failed and/or crashed out in an earlier grand tour and those who have already done a hard Giro. We are two years from neo Enric Más finishing 2nd overall, to put things in perspective.
Not a great comparison imo as the way Mas got 2nd and the style in which Pogacar rode to the podium in their respective editions of La Vuelta were very different. Mas was very consistent but at no point did he look the strongest in the race or that close to being and largely advanced on GC through others having bad days or cracking. By contrast Pogacar had 3 stage wins and in the latter of those put the entire field to the sword solo comprehensively. Mas also has never come close to winning a decent level stage race before or after his GT podium.
 
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Not a great comparison imo as the way Mas got 2nd and the style in which Pogacar rode to the podium in their respective editions of La Vuelta were very different. Mas was very consistent but at no point did he look the strongest in the race or that close to being and largely advanced on GC through others having bad days or cracking. By contrast Pogacar had 3 stage wins and in the latter of those put the entire field to the sword solo comprehensively. Mas also has never come close to winning a decent level stage race before or after his GT podium.
Yes, he was mighty impressive, no one even dares to dispute that, but just goes to show that there is a world of difference between a Tour and a lone Vuelta.
 
It's not because it's "only the vuelta". Because the climbs in the Vuelta are shorter. Because the overall pace is significantly lower in the Vuelta. Because the big boys in the Vuelta had already ridden another GT and didn't make it their big goal of the season, except for maybe Valverde... who finished ahead of him. Because they all underestimated him going in.

We know (unlike with Evenepoel) he can survive 3 weeks, but expecting him to top 5 in the most stacked TDF in recent history, based on last year's vuelta? Not impossible but certainly not a done deal.
Not this BS again. The only reason the Tour is faster is cause it's flatter. Power outputs generally aren't lower adjusted for length, and the Tour last year had a 110km, an 80km and a 60km mountain stage.

Also, the 2 biggest echelon stages in GTs last year were in the 3rd week of the Vuelta.

In fact Pogacar probably won the 2 hardest ridden mountain stages in the Vuelta last year. Everyone was dead at the end of the Vuelta, and that's why Pog put 1'30 into everyone.
 
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For reference I made a list of riders who podiumed the first GT they rode this century:

Levi Leipheimer
Jose Rujano (Ryo <3)
Andy Schleck
Tadej Pogacar

So yeah not exactly predictive of future GT dominance.

I'm expecting Pogacar to fight for the podium and finish in the top5 nonetheless. It is true that a Vuelta podium doesn't necessarily translate to success in the Tour, but he looks like a special talent to me.
 
Trying to diminish La Vuelta podium achievement is in my opinion a totally different thing. Compared to estimating the outcome on Tour.

La Vuelta podium achievement in my opinion can't be disputed. Competition was good and Pogačar did a good job. Well deserved.

Expectations for the Tour. Pogačar won't be the captain in his team, doesn't have a wealth of experience, two supercharged teams are expected to fill top 5 positions ... Saying Pogačar not finishing in top 5 will be considered a failure ... That just isn't fair. Next year i assume Pogačar will go to the Giro. And the year after that i assume he will be the captain of his team and will go for a win on a GT race.

Fingers crossed.
 
Expectations for the Tour. Pogačar won't be the captain in his team, doesn't have a wealth of experience, two supercharged teams are expected to fill top 5 positions ... Saying Pogačar not finishing in top 5 will be considered a failure ... That just isn't fair.
Why are you guys obsessed with what's fair?
Who the f*ck cares if a poster on cycling news forum says Pogacar not finishing in the top5 at the Tour would be a disappointment?
I'm skeptical he will ever read our comments. And even in case he does I'm pretty sure he has some more pressure to deal with (media, team management, fans, etc). And if he can't deal with that kind of pressure he will probably never be a champion anyway.

We are two years from neo Enric Más finishing 2nd overall, to put things in perspective.
And we're one year from calling his 22nd place at the Tour a huge disappointment so let's just not pretend a random top20 at the Tour would be an acceptable result for Pogacar.
 
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Not this BS again.
You are free to believe what you like. But there is a reason why pro cyclists themselves say that. Why pro teams have their young talents go to the Vuelta first and not the Tour. Why power outputs on climbs are higher in la Vuelta, even for riders who already rode a GT that year.
Trying to diminish La Vuelta podium achievement is in my opinion a totally different thing. Compared to estimating the outcome on Tour.

La Vuelta podium achievement in my opinion can't be disputed. Competition was good and Pogačar did a good job. Well deserved.
It was deserved but the competition nor the circumstances can be compared. It's as simple as that.
 
Why are you guys obsessed with what's fair?
Who the f*ck cares if a poster on cycling news forum says Pogacar not finishing in the top5 at the Tour would be a disappointment?
I'm skeptical he will ever read our comments. And even in case he does I'm pretty sure he has some more pressure to deal with (media, team management, fans, etc). And if he can't deal with that kind of pressure he will probably never be a champion anyway.
I care. Pogačar likely will read our comments, he is a young man and still has enough time to keep in touch with social media and stuff. No special pressure needed at this point, that is my point. Top 5 expectation is too big of an expectation, pressure and obsession at this point. Knowing all other factors. Pogačar will get more then enough of that in around two years time, at 23 years old.

P.S. Like Bernal, not winning the Tour 2020 ...
 
For Pogacar to podium he does not only need to be fantastic, he needs to be better than at least two of Roglic, Bernal, Quintana, Pinot...

I care. Pogačar likely will read our comments, he is a young man and still has enough time to keep in touch with social media and stuff. No special pressure needed at this point, that is my point. Top 5 expectation is too big of an expectation, pressure and obsession at this point. Knowing all other factors. Pogačar will get more then enough of that in around two years time, at 23 years old.

P.S. Like Bernal, not winning the Tour 2020 ...
In case he has nothing better to do than reading our comments and fears he cannot live up to our expectations he should probably take a look at earlier prediction games and how well they worked out.
Seriously, I am very sure he's not going to read them.

We may be discussing here, but the international media will be all about Bernal, Froome, Ineos and TJV unless Pogacar shows something during the Tour that lets them think of a possible win, the French will be about Pinot, Alaphilippe and such, and even the Slovenian media has Roglic to fuss about. There's an article on cyclingnews about him, yes, but he's not the only one who gets that. I would not worry to much about too high expectations.
 
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You are free to believe what you like. But there is a reason why pro cyclists themselves say that. Why pro teams have their young talents go to the Vuelta first and not the Tour. Why power outputs on climbs are higher in la Vuelta, even for riders who already rode a GT that year.


It was deserved but the competition nor the circumstances can be compared. It's as simple as that.
It used to be, a long time ago. It's one of those things people start to believe if you repeat them often enough. And they mistake stressful for fast. It's also not like the TdF is clearly the best GT rider of the year every year. Same goes for the entirety of the podium, or top 5. I reckon Kruijswijk wouldn't have made the Giro or Vuelta podium last year.

Sending newbies to another GT first is logical cuase it has the most organised, stacked teams which is where you want experience.
 

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