Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Gigs_98]

Concerning Pogacar at Fleche, I know in 2020 he was worse there than in LBL and he looked bad last season, but I just can't help but think he will still be able to win there this year as long as his shape hasn't declined too much.
Pogacar constantly pummels everyone in uphill sprints so I just cannot believe the uphill sprint world championship doesn't suit him. His shape might be on the decline by then (as I think it was last year) but I don't expect a scenario where he isn't among the very best in FW but then wins LBL.

 

[Gigs_98]

I forgot to address this, but how was the race as good as it was while you were watching

Hah, I turned on the stream for about five minutes when they were racing the Kwaremont. You didn't seriously think I was watching the whole race?

 

[Red Rick]

Concerning Pogacar at Fleche, I know in 2020 he was worse there than in LBL and he looked bad last season, but I just can't help but think he will still be able to win there this year as long as his shape hasn't declined too much.
Pogacar constantly pummels everyone in uphill sprints so I just cannot believe the uphill sprint world championship doesn't suit him. His shape might be on the decline by then (as I think it was last year) but I don't expect a scenario where he isn't among the very best in FW but then wins LBL.

I think the fresher it is the worse it is for Pog, but he should still be up there. I don't think either season he did FW he was in great shape at that point in time. Even in 2020 when he got chopped by Alaphilippe he struggled on the RaF. In 2021 he was also hanging on for dear life so maybe even then he was already past his spring peak. And a terrible FW last year may have contributed to not racing Liege.

Pog in the Ardennes is quite interesting for future years because of the question how long he can keep up his insane shape. I think for the future he may stop going so hard in February or Paris-Nice/Tirreno

 

[Nick2413]

I think the fresher it is the worse it is for Pog, but he should still be up there. I don't think either season he did FW he was in great shape at that point in time. Even in 2020 when he got chopped by Alaphilippe he struggled on the RaF. In 2021 he was also hanging on for dear life so maybe even then he was already past his spring peak. And a terrible FW last year may have contributed to not racing Liege.

Pog in the Ardennes is quite interesting for future years because of the question how long he can keep up his insane shape. I think for the future he may stop going so hard in February or Paris-Nice/Tirreno

Cancellara is right, he’s not a stage race rider anymore. He’s a classics guy who happens to win some GTs and stage races here and there.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Cancellara is right, he’s not a stage race rider anymore. He’s a classics guy who happens to win some GTs and stage races here and there.

Cancellara's statement should be taken with a grain of salt.
Pogacar is primarily a GT contender and not because chronologically he happened to win GTs and then explore classics.
First, he didn't switch one for the other.
Second, his skill set, power output, recovery abilities and body type excell in GTs.
Third, it may be the case that we fans simply lack the vocabulary to name what Pogacar currently is because we grew accostumed to split the waters between GT contenders and classic specialists that every now and then could win a few stages in GTs.

 

[Blanco]

I'll be disappointed if he can't equal Valverde here.

To equal? Let him start first, it's a long way to Valverde...
Somehow I think Mur de Huy doesn't suit him that much, race is not that hard, peloton is fairly fresh, and it seems that he can't make the difference there.
Roglic is more suited to this type of climb imo, and I think he should try this year. To me he's the No.1 candidate for the win.

 

[Netserk]

In fact I would have accepted an address of my arguments without even referencing Gricean Maxims.

But no, seriously, I think it's perfectly fine to disagree with the strength of my arguments. It's just that I made two and it was implied only one of them was already enough to make me think Pogacar would be the strongest rider in PR. Does that constitute "putting words in my mouth"? I don't know, but it certainly doesn't feel outrageous to me to call it that.

Concerning my wording in your quote, yeah, whatever. I definitely didn't purposely phrase it like that to show my certainty. But also I really don't think a discussion about semantics will get us anywhere. I was annyoed about a reply but that's it. I really didn't want this to become a prolonged discussion about who said what.

You know the saying: I’m here to *** around and chew bubblegum. So expect more superfluous references going forward.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think the fresher it is the worse it is for Pog, but he should still be up there. I don't think either season he did FW he was in great shape at that point in time. Even in 2020 when he got chopped by Alaphilippe he struggled on the RaF. In 2021 he was also hanging on for dear life so maybe even then he was already past his spring peak. And a terrible FW last year may have contributed to not racing Liege.

Pog in the Ardennes is quite interesting for future years because of the question how long he can keep up his insane shape. I think for the future he may stop going so hard in February or Paris-Nice/Tirreno

Pogacar in Ardennes (except his Liege victory) had some misfortunes and also the sample of his participations is still small:

1. Withdrew from Liege in 2022 due to family reasons.
2. False positive covid test before FW 2021
3. In 2020 Liege was raced in the autumn but even then Ala eliminated him and Hirschi with his "masterpiece"

I don't know what will go wrong this year, we will see Maybe we will be able to assess his form (past peak?) better this time.

 

[Tonton]

I like the debates, it's a forum after all...but the cold hard truth is that Tadej Pogacar should be marked as the favorite of every race that he chooses to enter. This is what it looks like:

* Pogacar
****two guys
***three guys
**three guys and a French guy
* Vino and a few guys

PR? I would like his chances as much and actually more than any other rider. He's the best! Any race, list the name, it's the same...

 

[Big Doopie]

Cancellara is right, he’s not a stage race rider anymore. He’s a classics guy who happens to win some GTs and stage races here and there.

He’s both.

That is abundantly clear.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I would love to see him making a surprise appearence in Roubaix. Would be remarkable.

 

[gunara]

Cancellara is right, he’s not a stage race rider anymore. He’s a classics guy who happens to win some GTs and stage races here and there.

Here, there, and everywhere.

 

[Nick2413]

He’s both.

That is abundantly clear.

To be clear, it was a joke

 

[Amazinmets87]

But I too think that he could do okay (so at least top-10) if he where to race Roubaix this week, so without additional specific preparations wrt to weight. In the right circumstances, I think he could possibly even get on the podium.

I think it'd be wise for him to race Roubaix first without tailoring his prep for it, so just to test himself, get some experience and see how well he can do with his current weight. He could have a spring next year where he only races the monuments (so no E3 or Amstel) with the same prep as for this year. I hope he does that, and I think he would still challenge for the win in Liège.

It's pretty easy to gain a kilo in a week and then lose it.

 

[Monsi]

Isn't Pogacar skipping Fleche this year in favor of riding Amstel? Good decision, imo. His Fleche results have been kinda underwhelming. Even last year, he was in such good position on the Huy (P4/P5 I think) but he still finished 12th. With the succession of short climbs at Amstel and its long distance, Amstel just suits him more and he should be the favorite to win it.

 

[Didinho]

Isn't Pogacar skipping Fleche this year in favor of riding Amstel? Good decision, imo. His Fleche results have been kinda underwhelming. Even last year, he was in such good position on the Huy (P4/P5 I think) but he still finished 12th. With the succession of short climbs at Amstel and its long distance, Amstel just suits him more and he should be the favorite to win it.

Thought it was the other way around. Skipping Amstel. But he's still on the list for the 3 hilly races.

 

[Red Rick]

Pretty much this. Last year Vingegaard was mostly an NPC outside july. Even losing to the 'weak opposition' as apparently Mas and Landa are called these days.
Now he was actually good in every race he did. Sure he got countered by Pogi in Paris Nice and he blew himself up there, but that was just trial and error ahead of the Tour.

Pogacar is just the same as last year, that he was stronger in RVV than last year says nothing about his ability on very long climbs.

RVV '22 vs RVV '23 is the interesting question to me where it's different.

We know Van der Poel was better, yet he still lost.

But I'm not super convinced Pogacar won 100% because "he was just better this time". The overall difficulty of the race, the very long finale, and committing fully to attacking on de OK where there was a big tailwind all played a part, as did Van der Poels rather boneheaded attack on Kruisberg.

 

[Salvarani]

MVDP also fell behind in the beginning. Even though his teammates brought him back, the wind was brutal for everybody. Most of his teammates were gone early.

His chain drop later.

Those are efforts that adds up in the end.

His overly aggressive attack is on him, but thats is MVDP.

He still almost could have won that race.

Pog was very strong, fair play to him. Incredible rider. One of the best races I can remember watching.

 

[Netserk]

Who was the lightest rider in the front group yesterday, maybe Pedersen? Mostly a group of heavyweights.

Still, I think Pogi would be more likely than not to make the split. He has the nose for when he needs to be a certain place, and he wouldn't hesitate the least to make sure he gets across, even if he initially would have been caught behind with Pedersen.

 

[SafeBet]

Who was the lightest rider in the front group yesterday, maybe Pedersen? Mostly a group of heavyweights.

Still, I think Pogi would be more likely than not to make the split.

He would make the split unless he crashed or punctured in Arenberg. Gianni Vermeersch is about the same weight as Pogacar.

Whether he'd be able to keep it up with Van der Poel and Van Aert once they drop the watt bomb on the final sectors is a different matter but I'd lean yes with a specific preparation.

 

[staubsauger]

If he specifies towards Paris - Roubaix after a 3rd Tour de France victory rather than going for No. 4 & 5, yes I think he can win win it. Which means he's in contention. Nothing guarantees that he walks away with a win eventually, but IMHO he's the potential in an edition that works in his favor.

 

[Red Rick]

He would make the split unless he crashed or punctured in Arenberg. Gianni Vermeersch is about the same weight as Pogacar.

Whether he'd be able to keep it up with Van der Poel and Van Aert once they drop the watt bomb on the final sectors is a different matter but I'd lean yes with a specific preparation.

Curious how he'd hold up in terms of fatigue resistance on a pure flat course where his lighter weight is almost never an advantage.

I suspect Pog could make the final but if it's like yesterday it seems impossible for him to make the difference. In Roubaix he probably also gets hampered by being technically worse than Van Aert and MvdP.

One thing that stood out to me yesterday is how much fresher and better Van der Poel and Van Aert were than the TTers that are Kung and Ganna. The Carrefour time they did was ballistic.

 

[hayneplane]

Curious how he'd hold up in terms of fatigue resistance on a pure flat course where his lighter weight is almost never an advantage.

I suspect Pog could make the final but if it's like yesterday it seems impossible for him to make the difference. In Roubaix he probably also gets hampered by being technically worse than Van Aert and MvdP.

One thing that stood out to me yesterday is how much fresher and better Van der Poel and Van Aert were than the TTers that are Kung and Ganna. The Carrefour time they did was ballistic.

True but I don’t see any reason why the race being as hard as it was from so far out like in RVV last week wouldn’t play into the hands of the guy with 3 week endurance.

Nothing I saw yesterday dissuades me from believing Pogacar should have been there yesterday and barring a badly timed mechanical would have been in the elite group on the final 5 star sector. From there with the right legs and luck he could certainly win.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

One thing that stood out to me yesterday is how much fresher and better Van der Poel and Van Aert were than the TTers that are Kung and Ganna. The Carrefour time they did was ballistic.

Monster absolute VO2max and FTP seemingly not enough for a 6-hour effort full of cobbles and intense-intervals.

BTW looking at Vinge in Basque country Teddy should have utilized those Belgian chips and made a last-minute appearance in Paris-Roubaix. Now he has to lose weight, lots of it!

 

[Gigs_98]

One difference Pogacar in the front group probably would have caused is less harmony. It was so weird that in a group of 7 riders, where two were from the same team and some were clearly superior sprinters, everyone was happy to wait until the final hard sector. I guess MvdP wanted to attack a few times, but he couldn't drop van Aert. Van Aert seemingly wanted to wait for the finale, Degenkolb and Pedersen thought they had better odds in a sprint than with an attack and Küng and Ganna likely didn't attack because they were completely gassed.

Pogacar, if he was strong enough, wouldn't fall in any of those categories and probably would have preferred an earlier selection.