Cookster15
Moderator
In 2021 he beat Vingegaard by 5 minutes. Here is stage 8 for a reminder of his superiority. By the TT the Tour was over.Maybe, but he also lost to Vingegaard in 2021.
I think the question is whether a different approach would make a difference. If he doesn't race LBL but spends his time training or uses an easier race as training, then maybe he doesn't crash.
Personally I prefer that he does as many classics as he wants, but he shouldn't expect to be better in the Tour than in previous years with the same schedule.
For 2023, I think you might be discounting the effect of his LBL crash on what eventuated in July. Last year I think Pogacar was a shot to match Vingegaard until his crash. At PN he rode Vingegaard off his wheel on stage 4. I also prefer he does the spring classics but the LBL crash injury put a huge dent in his prep. He and UAE did everything they could to overcome that setback but it wasn't enough. He did a great TT despite losing 1'38" but that emptied him and he paid for it the following day. That's what happens when you lack base condition.
In 2021 he was 23. Last year he was 24. I think we can assume that without the LBL crash Pog would have been better in July. Maybe not good enough to topple Vingegaard but better nonetheless. Such as not imploding and losing nearly 6 minutes on stage 17.