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Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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I don't think Pogacar can beat Ganna on this course but he will be closer than many here are giving credit. In the first TT it was clear he held back on the flatter part of the course to demolish the climb and he did. Well there is no climb on this stage.

I think this stage and tomorrow Pogacar seals the Giro. he can ride tempo for the remainder of the Giro and focus on not crashing. He isn't going to fade and who is realistically going to have the ability, let alone confidence to attack him?
 
He will not beat Ganna, but get some time on other GC contenders.

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It didn't seem impossible to be honest.
He was at least equally strong in the second half of that Tour and he seemed like someone still improving. Whereas Pogacar didn't really improve in the Mountains since..2020?
Yet despite what briefly happened on the Ventoux stage in 2021, curious why nobody had Vingegaard listed as a serious threat before the 2022 TdF? In fact, that was the case right up until the Granon stage.

Everyone seems wise in hindsight. Betting markets in early July 2022 confirmed this. Pogacar was stupidly over confident in 2022 and IMO in 2023 was affected by his LBL crash.

Also, in 2021, it is a stretch to say Vingegaard was "at least equally strong in the second half of that Tour".

Stage 17 - Saint-Lary-Soulan, Pogacar took 3 seconds on Vingegaard
Stage 18 - Luz Ardiden - Pogacar took 2 seconds on Vingegaard

After Luz Ardiden Pogacar had a 5'45" lead on Vingegaard.

Stage 20 TT, Vingegaard took back 25 seconds when the Tour was done and dusted.
 
Folks were saying at this point he'd be 6 min ahead, but is he laying low to drop watt bombs on the next ring of stages?
6 minutes at this point didn't make much sense considering the terrain there's been until this point. A long ITT and 2 middling Cat 1 finishes isn't quite enough for 6 minutes.

The only real lying low was Prati di Tivo
 
Yet despite what briefly happened on the Ventoux stage in 2021, curious why nobody had Vingegaard listed as a serious threat before the 2022 TdF? In fact, that was the case right up until the Granon stage.

Everyone seems wise in hindsight. Betting markets in early July 2022 confirmed this. Pogacar was stupidly over confident in 2022 and IMO in 2023 was affected by his LBL crash.

Also, in 2021, it is a stretch to say Vingegaard was "at least equally strong in the second half of that Tour".

Stage 17 - Saint-Lary-Soulan, Pogacar took 3 seconds on Vingegaard
Stage 18 - Luz Ardiden - Pogacar took 2 seconds on Vingegaard

After Luz Ardiden Pogacar had a 5'45" lead on Vingegaard.

Stage 20 TT, Vingegaard took back 25 seconds when the Tour was done and dusted.
I remember quite a few people said that Vingegaard is a serious contender after Dauphine, even more so after the 3rd stage (when there was a discussion about WVA not waiting for him (apparently JV was the only one able to stay close go him on a climb that didn't suit him.
And after PDBF everyone saw Vingegaard is gonna be a massive threat.

As for 2021, people, at least in this forum, seriously thought that Vingegaard will attack and we may see some kind of a battle. Of course, it didn't happen but Vingegaard was close to Pogacar despite the latter actually attacked few times.



I agree that Pogacar was a massive favorite before the TDF 2022 but that's because everyone slept on what Vingegaard did after his crash in 2021. Let's not ignore that on the Le Grand-Bornard Vingegaard fell and everyone was fighting for the podium rather than chase Pogacar..
Hindsight is 20/20 but we had plenty of evidence that we may actually see a battle in 2022
 
I remember quite a few people said that Vingegaard is a serious contender after Dauphine, even more so after the 3rd stage (when there was a discussion about WVA not waiting for him (apparently JV was the only one able to stay close go him on a climb that didn't suit him.
And after PDBF everyone saw Vingegaard is gonna be a massive threat.

As for 2021, people, at least in this forum, seriously thought that Vingegaard will attack and we may see some kind of a battle. Of course, it didn't happen but Vingegaard was close to Pogacar despite the latter actually attacked few times.



I agree that Pogacar was a massive favorite before the TDF 2022 but that's because everyone slept on what Vingegaard did after his crash in 2021. Let's not ignore that on the Le Grand-Bornard Vingegaard fell and everyone was fighting for the podium rather than chase Pogacar..
Hindsight is 20/20 but we had plenty of evidence that we may actually see a battle in 2022

Vingegaard was #3 favourite before the Tour 2022 (and the only rider besides Pog & Rog to have a realistic shot at victory). After Rog's crash and PDBF finale it was clear that Vingo was the only realistic threat to Pog (but the Slovenian was still #1 favourite OFC).
 
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Vingegaard was #3 favourite before the Tour 2022 (and the only rider besides Pog & Rog to have a realistic shot at victory). After Rog's crash and PDBF finale it was clear that Vingo was the only realistic threat to Pog (but the Slovenian was still #1 favourite OFC).
After Planche, it was more 50/50 IMO, and I think going into the Tour, Rog and Vingo were equals in terms of chances of winning. I think this post is underrating Vingegaard a bit in 2022. We knew he was a great stage racer back and better than Roglic in the mountains and at least equal to Pog in the high mountains.