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Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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Yet despite what briefly happened on the Ventoux stage in 2021, curious why nobody had Vingegaard listed as a serious threat before the 2022 TdF? In fact, that was the case right up until the Granon stage.

Everyone seems wise in hindsight. Betting markets in early July 2022 confirmed this. Pogacar was stupidly over confident in 2022 and IMO in 2023 was affected by his LBL crash.

Also, in 2021, it is a stretch to say Vingegaard was "at least equally strong in the second half of that Tour".

Stage 17 - Saint-Lary-Soulan, Pogacar took 3 seconds on Vingegaard
Stage 18 - Luz Ardiden - Pogacar took 2 seconds on Vingegaard

After Luz Ardiden Pogacar had a 5'45" lead on Vingegaard.

Stage 20 TT, Vingegaard took back 25 seconds when the Tour was done and dusted.
I remember quite a few people said that Vingegaard is a serious contender after Dauphine, even more so after the 3rd stage (when there was a discussion about WVA not waiting for him (apparently JV was the only one able to stay close go him on a climb that didn't suit him.
And after PDBF everyone saw Vingegaard is gonna be a massive threat.

As for 2021, people, at least in this forum, seriously thought that Vingegaard will attack and we may see some kind of a battle. Of course, it didn't happen but Vingegaard was close to Pogacar despite the latter actually attacked few times.



I agree that Pogacar was a massive favorite before the TDF 2022 but that's because everyone slept on what Vingegaard did after his crash in 2021. Let's not ignore that on the Le Grand-Bornard Vingegaard fell and everyone was fighting for the podium rather than chase Pogacar..
Hindsight is 20/20 but we had plenty of evidence that we may actually see a battle in 2022
 
I remember quite a few people said that Vingegaard is a serious contender after Dauphine, even more so after the 3rd stage (when there was a discussion about WVA not waiting for him (apparently JV was the only one able to stay close go him on a climb that didn't suit him.
And after PDBF everyone saw Vingegaard is gonna be a massive threat.

As for 2021, people, at least in this forum, seriously thought that Vingegaard will attack and we may see some kind of a battle. Of course, it didn't happen but Vingegaard was close to Pogacar despite the latter actually attacked few times.



I agree that Pogacar was a massive favorite before the TDF 2022 but that's because everyone slept on what Vingegaard did after his crash in 2021. Let's not ignore that on the Le Grand-Bornard Vingegaard fell and everyone was fighting for the podium rather than chase Pogacar..
Hindsight is 20/20 but we had plenty of evidence that we may actually see a battle in 2022

Vingegaard was #3 favourite before the Tour 2022 (and the only rider besides Pog & Rog to have a realistic shot at victory). After Rog's crash and PDBF finale it was clear that Vingo was the only realistic threat to Pog (but the Slovenian was still #1 favourite OFC).
 
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Vingegaard was #3 favourite before the Tour 2022 (and the only rider besides Pog & Rog to have a realistic shot at victory). After Rog's crash and PDBF finale it was clear that Vingo was the only realistic threat to Pog (but the Slovenian was still #1 favourite OFC).
After Planche, it was more 50/50 IMO, and I think going into the Tour, Rog and Vingo were equals in terms of chances of winning. I think this post is underrating Vingegaard a bit in 2022. We knew he was a great stage racer back and better than Roglic in the mountains and at least equal to Pog in the high mountains.
 
Things changed when JV decided to push Jonas ahead of Roglič at the Tour. That clearly happened at the Tour 2023, on where Roglič was not selected in the Tour team any more. As for Tour 2022, it's hard to say, on who would finish ahead and who would get sacrificed during the race. Hay bale made sure of that and hence we will never know. Luckily things changed again and now Rogla and Jonas can fight it out on the road, on where neither has to hold back, if not at the Tour 2024 then likely at Vuelta 2024. At the Tour 2024 it seems more likely we will get to see the aftermath of Tour 2020. Hopefully the Slovenian duo to fight it out till the finish line, Remco likely wanting to have a say in it. We'll see, it's cycling. On who is good in mountains, and things like that.
 
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After Planche, it was more 50/50 IMO, and I think going into the Tour, Rog and Vingo were equals in terms of chances of winning. I think this post is underrating Vingegaard a bit in 2022. We knew he was a great stage racer back and better than Roglic in the mountains and at least equal to Pog in the high mountains.

After PDBF, I had Vingo at 30% vs Pog at 60% (definitely thought that Vingo might win) but I remember that most posters were actually more favourable towards Pog than me. If you thought 50/50 you were the closest to the actual outcome.
 
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After PDBF, I had Vingo at 30% vs Pog at 60% (definitely thought that Vingo might win) but I remember that most posters were actually more favourable towards Pog than me. If you thought 50/50 you were the closest to the actual outcome.
I think it was an obvious 50/50 the second Vingegaard showed to be just as good on a climb such as Planche, yes. Maybe even a very slight favorite at that point.

Tomorrow he will go at exactly 5 km from the top of Foscagno and gain around 1'15. And when he won't, Netserk will tell me what a fool I am
 
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For me he is a top 5 time triallist in the world. Can't compete with Tarling, Remco and Ganna in a flat course but in a more rolling time trial, he is probably the best. No joke, only Vingegaard can beat him if we are talking about a third week time trial.
It's a very relative subject.

What is being a top 5 time trialist in the world? Is being better on flat time trials? Hilly time trials?
Doing better time trials in Grand Tours, especially in the last week? Or doing top 5 in the worlds championship TT? Doing good in short TT(prologue)?

It's a very relative subject for every rider.

Certainly Pogacar is one of the best time trialists in the last week of a Grand Tour, also one of the best in a hilly TT, but in a world championship TT, Certainly he is not top 5 in the world, and the same to Vingegaard.

Roglic probably is the best time trialist in the world in a short TT, but in a flat TT in a world championships he can't do top 5.