Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Peyroteo94]

Where are people reading he lost 7 kilos?

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think we came back 10 years ago and then were talking about Contador's weight all the time. He can't be 7 kilos lighter but he really looks lighter and that means it is probably more than a kilo. He doesn't have his baby fat anymore.

 

[Bolder]

I've heard he lost 27kg

Rolling the big ring, too!

 

[Samu Cuenca]

7 kg? Sounds like Mas isn't the only rider who's suffered from massive diarrhea in recent weeks.

 

[SHAD0W93]

7 kg? Sounds like Mas isn't the only rider who's suffered from massive diarrhea in recent weeks.

There were concerns about Pog being able to eat solids and NG feeding causes diarrhea so I think it everything checks out

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Exactly. Everyone can have a bad day that decides the whole Tour.

I am curious if UAE tries to downplay Pogi's chances and exaggerate the effect of injury on his preparation but we will soon see.

I heard from internal source that Pogi was doing 6 hour motor pacing simulation day ahead of NC road race. Then he basically drove away next day like it was a training run with amateurs. There is also a rumor tha he lost around 7kg compared to last years TDF so if this is true they are targeting his weak points in mountains (at least weak compared to Vinge).

7 kg? That would be outrageous - he would crush everybody (Skeletor included) but it's physically rather impossible. Even 1 kilo of difference is significant (it's 0.1 w/kg). Let's remember that at the Tour he's usually trimmed down anyway. I think 1-2 kg of reduction (compared to previous years) would be big (but possible).

 

[theyoungest]

7 kg is a bit much but he definitely looked leaner than last year this spring. And in last year's Tour he actually didn't look the leanest he could possibly be. Of course there's dangers to losing a lot of weight, it makes you more vulnerable to sickness for example. And if there's a super cold and rainy day he won't have as much of an advantage as he did in 2021. I would say it also affects your explosiveness, but we didn't see too much evidence of that so far.

 

[Salvarani]

Rolling the big ring, too!

From day one it was clear he was destined for greatness!

 

[Rob5091]

More mind games?
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...ar-i-myself-am-only-just-back-after-an-injury
"My wrist is not yet fully mobile, and certain shocks still bother me. My body has to compensate a bit, so he's definitely not 100 percent okay yet," continues Pogacar. "Jonas Vingegaard starts as the favourite anyway. He was very dominant in the Dauphiné and I myself am only just back after an injury.”

What's the state of the roads in the Basque country? A few unexpected shocks and we'll see if Pogacar is bluffing or not.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

7 kg is a bit much but he definitely looked leaner than last year this spring. And in last year's Tour he actually didn't look the leanest he could possibly be. Of course there's dangers to losing a lot of weight, it makes you more vulnerable to sickness for example. And if there's a super cold and rainy day he won't have as much of an advantage as he did in 2021. I would say it also affects your explosiveness, but we didn't see too much evidence of that so far.

You also lose power and muscle mass in this case. But some loss of mass would be very advantagous to Pog considering that Vingegaard changed the Tour into a featherweight fight. His explosivity is the best among GC guys anyway and his cold weather superiority is also more about metabolism than mass methinks.

 

[Rackham]

More mind games?
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...ar-i-myself-am-only-just-back-after-an-injury
"My wrist is not yet fully mobile, and certain shocks still bother me. My body has to compensate a bit, so he's definitely not 100 percent okay yet," continues Pogacar. "Jonas Vingegaard starts as the favourite anyway. He was very dominant in the Dauphiné and I myself am only just back after an injury.”

What's the state of the roads in the Basque country? A few unexpected shocks and we'll see if Pogacar is bluffing or not.

Realistic & sensible approach, even if there's a touch of sandbagging going on (we don't know).

The weight of the race has to be on Jumbo. They have the holder in their ranks & they have the stronger team on paper when it comes to controlling the bunch on just about every terrain.

I'd be way more concerned about Pog if he was full of bravado (stuff like "I'm in top form, everything is good" etc.).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I'd be way more concerned about Pog if he was full of bravado (stuff like "I'm in top form, everything is good" etc.).

Actually thinking that Vinge is superior on toughest stages maybe would be better for Pog. He lost a lot of time last year on stages when he spent a lot of energy before last climbs (on Galibier he still didn't realize Vinge was so strong while on Spendelles he had no choice but to attack like crazy). Taking a more conservative approach on most difficult Alpine stages (i.e. sticking to teammates and Vinge's wheel all the time, never go to the front and waste energy) could actually be a better approach.

 

[Rackham]

Actually realizing that Vinge is superior on toughest stages maybe would be better for Pog. He lost a lot of time last year on stages when he spent a lot of energy before last climbs (on Galibier he still didn't realize Vinge was so strong while on Spendelles he had no choice but to attack like crazy). Taking a more conservative approach on most difficult Alpine stages (i.e. sticking to teammates and Vinge's wheel all the time, never go to the front and waste energy) could actually be a better approach.

Indeed.

I said weeks ago that between Pog & Vinge, the Tour will be won by the rider who doesn't spend the most energy riding aggressive. Pog lost so much energy last year putting in attack after attack whilst Vinge just wheelsucked him to death in the third week.

Take some bonus seconds, win some sprints, get ahead in GC & then let Vinge ride aggressive. That's how Pog will win the Tour. Aka don't attack, basically. Just counter (as he did in Paris-Nice in March).

That's how I see it anyway.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Indeed.

I said weeks ago that between Pog & Vinge, the Tour will be won by the rider who doesn't spend the most energy riding aggressive. Pog lost so much energy last year putting in attack after attack whilst Vinge just wheelsucked him to death in the third week.

Take some bonus seconds, win some sprints, get ahead in GC & then let Vinge ride aggressive. That's how Pog will win the Tour. Aka don't attack, basically. Just counter (as he did in Paris-Nice in March).

That's how I see it anyway.

But Pog is Pog, how can he not attack? If last year's Tour humbled him a bit and his DS insists on riding more defensively than it may happen indeed.

 

[Red Rick]

Indeed.

I said weeks ago that between Pog & Vinge, the Tour will be won by the rider who doesn't spend the most energy riding aggressive. Pog lost so much energy last year putting in attack after attack whilst Vinge just wheelsucked him to death in the third week.

Take some bonus seconds, win some sprints, get ahead in GC & then let Vinge ride aggressive. That's how Pog will win the Tour. Aka don't attack, basically. Just counter (as he did in Paris-Nice in March).

That's how I see it anyway.

If Vingegaard didn't need to expend energy, why did everyone behind teleport backwards any time Pogacar attacked? Energy spent is a very weak explanation for Hautacam at the very least.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If Vingegaard didn't need to expend energy, why did everyone behind teleport backwards any time Pogacar attacked? Energy spent is a very weak explanation for Hautacam at the very least.

I think we can agree that the more energy is spent during mountains stages, the better for Vinge. Pogacar did some furious accelerations on Spendelles and also fell on the descent making the overall race harder (obviously Vinge spent a lot of energy too but still it was easier on the wheel). If Pogacar realizes that Vinge is stronger on hardest stages he will try to minimize that energy expansion in order to reduce potential time loss (thus riding conservatively on them). OTOH JV will probably try to make most difficult stages as hard as possible.

 

[theyoungest]

Indeed.

I said weeks ago that between Pog & Vinge, the Tour will be won by the rider who doesn't spend the most energy riding aggressive. Pog lost so much energy last year putting in attack after attack whilst Vinge just wheelsucked him to death in the third week.

Take some bonus seconds, win some sprints, get ahead in GC & then let Vinge ride aggressive. That's how Pog will win the Tour. Aka don't attack, basically. Just counter (as he did in Paris-Nice in March).

That's how I see it anyway.

Isn't that what Pogi did in last year's Tour? He didn't do any massive attacks, just sprinted for bonus seconds. It didn't help him in the end.

 

[Andy schleck]

More mind games?
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...ar-i-myself-am-only-just-back-after-an-injury
"My wrist is not yet fully mobile, and certain shocks still bother me. My body has to compensate a bit, so he's definitely not 100 percent okay yet," continues Pogacar. "Jonas Vingegaard starts as the favourite anyway. He was very dominant in the Dauphiné and I myself am only just back after an injury.”

What's the state of the roads in the Basque country? A few unexpected shocks and we'll see if Pogacar is bluffing or not.

Mind games. If that was the true, he would try to hide that.

 

[Offline]

Mind games. If that was the true, he would try to hide that.

Agree!

And UAE going to downplay his chances this week into we wins stage 2.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Isn't that what Pogi did in last year's Tour? He didn't do any massive attacks, just sprinted for bonus seconds. It didn't help him in the end.

The reason you don't remember any massive attacks must be because he never got a substantial gap to Vingegaard, but it definitely wasn't due to a lack of trying.

 

[Rackham]

If Vingegaard didn't need to expend energy, why did everyone behind teleport backwards any time Pogacar attacked? Energy spent is a very weak explanation for Hautacam at the very least.

We know how bike racing works, i.e. riding defensive is always an advantage. It's less stressful for starters (no strategy dilemmas either).

After Granon, Vingegaard was in the easiest position imaginable, i.e. simply follow Pog (& drop him at the slightest sign of weakness). And I think Granon is often misrepresented in debates about last year's Tour, with arguments between one side who say Vinge won 'only because of Granon' versus others who believe Vinge really was the strongest in the Tour.

My opinion? The truth is somewhere in the middle. I think Granon killed Pogacar & that was entirely the oeuvre of Jumbo's team effort that day. After that, Pog was screwed either way. I think we can look at the 2020 TdF as an example of what happens when two pretty evenly matched riders go head-to-head over 3 weeks & the 'loser' in those types of races always has a load of stages with a certain number of "if only" regrets. Last year, Pog & Vinge were pretty evenly matched IMO.

So there's no way of knowing for sure but I don't see why a "normal" Col du Granon stage without Pog destroying himself for 60 km's (maybe just ship some time against Vinge, like he shipped 15 seconds versus Rog on Loze in 2020) couldn't have been compensated elsewhere & the end result being a Pog TdF win. Just as he won 2020 after being better some stages, whilst slightly worse in others.

And that's the thing for me, i.e. people like to say that Vingegaard is the better long climber than Pog. Maybe that's true? But it in no way excludes the possibility of Pogacar beating him over 3 weeks, especially if Vinge is forced to take more risks & ride more aggressively (something which I have a question mark over, considering he hasn't always been comfortable in the role of 'attacker').

 

[theyoungest]

The reason you don't remember any massive attacks must be because he never got a substantial gap to Vingegaard, but it definitely wasn't due to a lack of trying.

After he lost yellow, you mean? The only real attack I remember before that was on the cobbles stage. Of course when he was three minutes back on GC he had to attack.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Evidence of Granon being an anomalous stage for Pogacar due to his efforts is that he was not only dropped by Vingo, but also by the likes of Bardet, Thomas and Yates, top-class riders that in normal circumstances everyone acknowledges that they are cannon fodder for Pogi. Of course he was exhausted and only realized that in the last ascent. There is no telling who was the stronger rider in 2022 Tour because he managed his energy very poorly. Chapeau to Vingegaard for winning but strategy played - it always plays - a role.

 

[theyoungest]

We know how bike racing works, i.e. riding defensive is always an advantage. It's less stressful for starters (no strategy dilemmas either).

After Granon, Vingegaard was in the easiest position imaginable, i.e. simply follow Pog (& drop him at the slightest sign of weakness). And I think Granon is often misrepresented in debates about last year's Tour, with arguments between one side who say Vinge won 'only because of Granon' versus others who believe Vinge really was the strongest in the Tour.

My opinion? The truth is somewhere in the middle. I think Granon killed Pogacar & that was entirely the oeuvre of Jumbo's team effort that day. After that, Pog was screwed either way. I think we can look at the 2020 TdF as an example of what happens when two pretty evenly matched riders go head-to-head over 3 weeks & the 'loser' in those types of races always has a load of stages with a certain number of "if only" regrets. Last year, Pog & Vinge were pretty evenly matched IMO.

So there's no way of knowing for sure but I don't see why a "normal" Col du Granon stage without Pog destroying himself for 60 km's (maybe just ship some time against Vinge, like he shipped 15 seconds versus Rog on Loze in 2020) couldn't have been compensated elsewhere & the end result being a Pog TdF win. Just as he won 2020 after being better some stages, whilst slightly worse in others.

And that's the thing for me, i.e. people like to say that Vingegaard is the better long climber than Pog. Maybe that's true? But it in no way excludes the possibility of Pogacar beating him over 3 weeks, especially if Vinge is forced to take more risks & ride more aggressively (something which I have a question mark over, considering he hasn't always been comfortable in the role of 'attacker').

Vingegaard has only been a team leader for two years, and only this year as sole leader. It's a bit rich to say what kind of role he has or hasn't been comfortable in.

He won last year's Tour by nearly 3 minutes (would have been 4 but he had the luxury of "giving" Pogacar a minute back on the final stage). I wouldn't call that evenly matched. Just like you wouldn't call Pogi and Vingo in the Tour 2021 more or less each other's equal... even though Pogi gained almost all of his advantage on just one stage.

 

[meat puppet]

If Vingegaard didn't need to expend energy, why did everyone behind teleport backwards any time Pogacar attacked? Energy spent is a very weak explanation for Hautacam at the very least.

This. Let's make up quasi realistic numbers and say pogi attacks uphill with 10sec at 900w, then 20sec at 500w and settles into an upper threshold effort of 400w. The ones following surely cannot hold the wheel just riding at their thresholds, but must either cough up pretty similar numbers and follow immediately, claw back the lost ground via a longer sustained effort, or be dropped. In other words, covering attacks will put one into the red too, will eat into glycogen stores, etc.