Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[nightowl]

I disagree, i think tourmalet is a better place to vingegaard attack, or in the last 5 km of cambasque after jumbo make the race hard on tourmalet until that last 5 km of cambasque.

MB is 17 km from the finish and a short climb for vingegaard. It's not worth for vingegaard try to go to the bonus with an attack. Pogi is very good in climbs like MB.

Toumalet would be a good climb for Jonas to try and drop Pog, but it’s so far from the finish and there’s a lot of flat/false flat before Cautarets - even if he gets a gap I think he’d get reeled in assuming Pog doesn’t blow himself up trying to follow. And we all know how risk-averse Jonas is so I suspect we’ll just see him glued to Pog’s wheel and leave the attacking for another day

 

[Andy schleck]

Toumalet would be a good climb for Jonas to try and drop Pog, but it’s so far from the finish and there’s a lot of flat/false flat before Cautarets - even if he gets a gap I think he’d get reeled in assuming Pog doesn’t blow himself up trying to follow. And we all know how risk-averse Jonas is so I suspect we’ll just see him glued to Pog’s wheel and leave the attacking for another day

What about jumbo put bennot, van baarle or van aert in the breakaway? Then, maybe they could help vingegaard if he is able to drop Vingegaard on tourmalet, if one of them make to the top of tourmalet.

 

[nightowl]

What about jumbo put bennot, van baarle or van aert in the breakaway? Then, maybe they could help vingegaard if he is able to drop Vingegaard on tourmalet, if one of them make to the top of tourmalet.

True, that could potentially work. Breakaway formation will be interesting as I’m sure UAE will be doing anything they can to stop Jumbo from getting in the break. Some of the other teams might help too, even though they should play it cool and let it play out between Jumbo and UAE - but we so often see teams failing to be tactically savvy like that.

 

[Nick2413]

Marie Blanque on stage 5 at 4.8k 10.5% is steep enough for Vingegaard to maybe win the bonus seconds but unfortunately 20k from the finish. I could see Pog trying to attack on the descent though.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Marie Blanque on stage 5 at 4.8k 10.5% is steep enough for Vingegaard to maybe win the bonus seconds but unfortunately 20k from the finish. I could see Pog trying to attack on the descent though.

Pogacar is good on steep climbs. Only the long, high climbs can expose a vulnerability. The Col de la Loze is the only one that looks dangerous to me. Of course on a bad day one can lose time anywhere, but he looks good for now.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I disagree, i think tourmalet is a better place to vingegaard attack, or in the last 5 km of cambasque after jumbo make the race hard on tourmalet until that last 5 km of cambasque.

MB is 17 km from the finish and a short climb for vingegaard. It's not worth for vingegaard try to go to the bonus with a attack. Pogi is very good in climbs like MB.

MB lies perfectly in Pogacar's striking zone - hard enough to do the real damage but not too long (circa 22-23 minutes). I don't think Vinge's attack would work there. UAE will try to go for bonuses and also stage win (Pog will be the heavy favourite if the tempo on MB is high enough to drop fast guys for good).

 

[Monsi]

I honestly think the MB stage will be won by the break. Well, it depends on the size of the break. If it is large (10+ riders), I doubt UAE chases alone. If it’s around 5 riders, UAE will chase. For UAE’s sake, I hope UAE gives yellow away. Are they really able to hold yellow for possibly the entire TDF?

I think the Tourmalet stage is more certain to be a stage to be won by the GC riders since it’s a summit finish. Also, looks like it will be a rainy Pyrenees. Heck, atm, there’s even a moderate chance of rain on the Puy de Dome. I’m sure Pogacar loves that.

 

[Offline]

What about jumbo put bennot, van baarle or van aert in the breakaway? Then, maybe they could help vingegaard if he is able to drop Vingegaard on tourmalet, if one of them make to the top of tourmalet.

That's for sure their plan. But UAE will go all-in from km zero for that not to happen.

 

[Peyroteo94]

We will have a lot of rain in Tourmalet. I can definetly see UAE going all in to win the Tour. If Vingegaard cannot follow Pogacar, he is screwed. He will lose 2 minutes there.

 

[Peter von]

I honestly think the MB stage will be won by the break. Well, it depends on the size of the break. If it is large (10+ riders), I doubt UAE chases alone. If it’s around 5 riders, UAE will chase. For UAE’s sake, I hope UAE gives yellow away. Are they really able to hold yellow for possibly the entire TDF?

I think the Tourmalet stage is more certain to be a stage to be won by the GC riders since it’s a summit finish. Also, looks like it will be a rainy Pyrenees. Heck, atm, there’s even a moderate chance of rain on the Puy de Dome. I’m sure Pogacar loves that.

UAE really should let the break go on stage 5 with the summit finish coming the following day. Maybe Jumbo have a bit of fun trying to put Benoot or Wout in the break and UAE can kill their rouleurs early on stage 5.

I think UAE should have given the yellow jersey away on stage 2, they killed their team for Pogi to take a few seconds. If they give it away on stage 5, they can easely get it back on stage 6. But UAE have a strong team and if they ride smart and allow breaks to form, they can get other teams to share the work, so I don't think it will be a disaster for them to have the jersey all race. Jumbo will also start to take charge on some summit finish stages to set up Jonas.

 

[Red Rick]

So much overattribution to specific climbs and conditions

 

[topcat]

This is the very last time I will say this: Pog will mop up bonus seconds by outsprinting Vingo (not really attacking). When we reach the real mountains, Pog will do for wheelsucking what Ali did for boxing-take it to a new level (he only needs to mark one man). UAE might send Yates up the road for the laugh.
Before the tour I thought Vingo would win, now I think Pog will. Time changes everything.

 

[Peyroteo94]

This is the very last time I will say this: Pog will mop up bonus seconds by outsprinting Vingo (not really attacking). When we reach the real mountains, Pog will do for wheelsucking what Ali did for boxing-take it to a new level (he only needs to mark one man). UAE might send Yates up the road for the laugh.
Before the tour I thought Vingo would win, now I think Pog will. Time changes everything.

Yes, this will be a good strategy. I can see him going to the TT with an advantage of 40 seconds

 

[Netserk]

Pogacar is good on steep climbs. Only the long, high climbs can expose a vulnerability. The Col de la Loze is the only one that looks dangerous to me. Of course on a bad day one can lose time anywhere, but he looks good for now.

Hautacam was not particular long and it is not high. Joux Plane is a bit steeper and a bit shorter, but good enough for Vingegaard to drop Pogi. Puy de Dôme likewise.

Pogi took 1'50'' out of Thomas on Hautacam, he was quite strong that day. Vingegaard was just a level higher, putting more than a minute in to Pogi in 4.5 km. That difference in strength does not require perfect conditions to make a gap, so while the volcano is not ideal, it's good enough to see a gap of 10''-30'' between the two.

 

[pvieira91]

I guess Pogacar now understands that he his not the best in all terrains. He is vulnerable and Vingegaard show him last year. Therefore he will try to gain as much bonus seconds as possible so he can have advantage on Vingegaard and then he will wheelsuck vingegaard in the long mountains.

 

[Peter von]

I guess Pogacar now understands that he his not the best in all terrains. He is vulnerable and Vingegaard show him last year. Therefore he will try to gain as much bonus seconds as possible so he can have advantage on Vingegaard and then he will wheelsuck vingegaard in the long mountains.

yeah, it would be the logical choice. I think his team has done a lot of work for very little gain on stage 2, but that is okay if Jumbo has to do all the work on later stages, then their biggest concern is "just" preventing Wout from getting in the breaks.

 

[frisenfruitig]

This is the very last time I will say this: Pog will mop up bonus seconds by outsprinting Vingo (not really attacking). When we reach the real mountains, Pog will do for wheelsucking what Ali did for boxing-take it to a new level (he only needs to mark one man). UAE might send Yates up the road for the laugh.
Before the tour I thought Vingo would win, now I think Pog will. Time changes everything.

I don't know, I still suspect that Pogacar is going to get dropped at some point in the high mountains. Vingegaard seems really comfortable responding to Pogacar's attacks so far and the way Pogacar got beaten last year was pretty convincing. Pogacar seems to be at a better level this year but I'm not sure if the same will apply here. I sure hope so because Vingegaard has the charisma of a damp rag.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

I don't know, I still suspect that Pogacar is going to get dropped at some point in the high mountains. Vingegaard seems really comfortable responding to Pogacar's attacks so far and the way Pogacar got beaten last year was pretty convincing. Pogacar seems to be at a better level this year but I'm not sure if the same will apply here. I sure hope so because Vingegaard has the charisma of a damp rag.

He is the Perry the Platipus of cycling

 

[Nick2413]

I guess Pogacar now understands that he his not the best in all terrains. He is vulnerable and Vingegaard show him last year. Therefore he will try to gain as much bonus seconds as possible so he can have advantage on Vingegaard and then he will wheelsuck vingegaard in the long mountains.

This is why UAE need to preserve Yates now and true to have something left with him in the last week.

 

[saunaking]

I guess Pogacar now understands that he his not the best in all terrains. He is vulnerable and Vingegaard show him last year. Therefore he will try to gain as much bonus seconds as possible so he can have advantage on Vingegaard and then he will wheelsuck vingegaard in the long mountains.

Its going to be so hilarious when people on here start calling him a wheelsucker when he tries to hang on to Jonas in some of the big mountain stages

 

[Berniece]

Its going to be so hilarious when people on here start calling him a wheelsucker when he tries to hang on to Jonas in some of the big mountain stages

There's a difference between having the energy to take over and not doing this and not taking over because you are already going over your limits. Wheelsucking is when you can take over but you won't.

 

[Peter von]

There's a difference between having the energy to take over and not doing this and not taking over because you are already going over your limits. Wheelsucking is when you can take over but you won't.

thing is that we fans can't always see the difference. both in terms of we are just playing cycling manager from our couch and have unrealistic expectations on how many matches riders have, and also because we don't know how the rider is actually feeling in real time.

 

[Berniece]

thing is that we fans can't always see the difference. both in terms of we are just playing cycling manager from our couch and have unrealistic expectations on how many matches riders have, and also because we don't know how the rider is actually feeling in real time.

That's true, you can only make an educated guess based on their performance, how they look and the actions they are taking.

But even then they can still be acting... Carapaz is known to do this a lot. Pogacar on the other hand isn't. He likes to race, so I don't expect him to wheelsuck.

 

[Peter von]

That's true, you can only make an educated guess based on their performance, how they look and the actions they are taking.

But even then they can still be acting... Carapaz is known to do this a lot. Pogacar on the other hand isn't. He likes to race, so I don't expect him to wheelsuck.

But some people will still say he is wheel sucking even if reality he is deep in the red trying to keep up with Vingegaard(who will also be deep in the red ofc).

 

[Miha81]

Pogi is clearly enjoying his time on 2023 TDF.

https://www.deia.eus/videos/deporte...PAug7ub5OYke6Z8waF8L8HWOSFQzCvz_6-axnHhfPE2Yo