If Pogacar builds a comfortable gap early (by Prati di Tivo) he can effectively soft pedal the last two weeks. Makes perfect sense in terms of preserving energy for his attempt on the double.
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They would be doing it essentially for Carlos Rodriguez TDF prospects against a marginally more tired Pogi.
C'mon, they know Rodriguez is no match against Pogi even with a Giro in his legs. Only Roglic can defeat Pogacar and I have serious doubts about Roglic specially after seeing a sterratto stage where crashes are normal
Not saying that it is going to make any difference just offering a reason why they might try it.
Yes a long shot perhaps but they might take some hope from Stage 17 last year, when Rodriguez put 3 minutes into Pogacar due to the cumulative fatigue that had been put into him. When Pogacar is on he's unbeatable, but he does have a complete crack in him.
I believe that after the 1st TT the fight for the 2nd place will start. Let's say O'Connor, Lutsenko, Martinez and especially Uijtdebroeks lost time to Thomas, but they feel like they are better in the mountains then him. AG2R, Bora, Astana and especially Visma will want to make the race hard for Thomas.
If Visma doesn't already know Vingegaard's status for the TDF, by then they should. If by any chance he is ready and starts TDF, then I believe they will ride as hard as they can this Giro. If that is the case then Pogačar has a chance to win close to 10 stages.
I'm already picturing Tratnik at the front driving it full gas for Jonas and even more for his friend Primož, dropping Cian in the process. That would really make my day.
If Visma doesn't already know Vingegaard's status for the TDF, by then they should. If by any chance he is ready and starts TDF, then I believe they will ride as hard as they can this Giro. If that is the case then Pogačar has a chance to win close to 10 stages.
I'm already picturing Tratnik at the front driving it full gas for Jonas and even more for his friend Primož, dropping Cian in the process. That would really make my day.
Why would you assume Rogla has better chance at crashing on the "sterrato stage" compared to Pogi? AFAIK both are great bike handlers on such terrain.
I am beginning to wonder if Rogla’s chances at the Tour are being underestimated?
He will be motivated to avenge 2020.
He will be fresh.
And he will also have a strong team riding for him - including Jai Hindley.
Underestimate Roglic at your peril.
He will be motivated to avenge 2020.
He will be fresh.
And he will also have a strong team riding for him - including Jai Hindley.
Underestimate Roglic at your peril.
who is underestimating him? Surely he's the second favorite at this point
Shrely with modern technology they could stream the Giro without ever showing Pog and leave him out of the overall standings to make it interesting.
I expect him to aim for 20 total grand tour stages.
I expect him to aim for 20 total grand tour stages.
And he did put a few seconds into the other GC riders on Plateau de Glières so obviously he will trounce Tadej on that stage.
That's the spirit.
In reality, I think flat gravel sections aren't hard enough to create much seperation, but the flat tires and positioning washing machiens could mean carnage all the same.
Roglic was perfectly fine in GP Denain in 2022.
Pogačar on leading the race from start to finish:
"Wearing a shirt from the first day to the last is something unimaginable. I can't imagine it myself, and I don't have such a plan, even if I were very, very sovereign. However, you have to think with your head, you also have to think about the team, and not just yourself. And of course also the fact that the Tour is waiting for us immediately after the Giro."
Tadej on how to approach the Giro tactically?:
"I would say not at full steam, you have to keep in mind that you finish the Giro happy, with positive energy regardless of the result. You have to finish the race with your mind somewhat fresh, you must not be knocked down and completely destroyed, so that you can then rest as soon as possible and prepare for the Tour."
Pogačar on working with new trainer:
"This year I have a new coach and it shows in the training sessions and the form itself. What has changed the most is communication and a more open attitude, a little more open-mindedness towards training and everything else that is happening around. Even about normal life, I can talk to my new coach much easier than before. We connected already in the winter and now somehow everything flows. He also trains Domen Novak, maybe he was the reason I chose him. If your colleague, your friend tells you in your language that this coach is really good, then that's it. I am very glad that I decided on him"
"Wearing a shirt from the first day to the last is something unimaginable. I can't imagine it myself, and I don't have such a plan, even if I were very, very sovereign. However, you have to think with your head, you also have to think about the team, and not just yourself. And of course also the fact that the Tour is waiting for us immediately after the Giro."
Tadej on how to approach the Giro tactically?:
"I would say not at full steam, you have to keep in mind that you finish the Giro happy, with positive energy regardless of the result. You have to finish the race with your mind somewhat fresh, you must not be knocked down and completely destroyed, so that you can then rest as soon as possible and prepare for the Tour."
Pogačar on working with new trainer:
"This year I have a new coach and it shows in the training sessions and the form itself. What has changed the most is communication and a more open attitude, a little more open-mindedness towards training and everything else that is happening around. Even about normal life, I can talk to my new coach much easier than before. We connected already in the winter and now somehow everything flows. He also trains Domen Novak, maybe he was the reason I chose him. If your colleague, your friend tells you in your language that this coach is really good, then that's it. I am very glad that I decided on him"
I don’t think Pink from start to finish is that outlandish: he will be favourite for the first two stages, and there probably won’t be many within a minute of him come Sunday night. Then there are three flat stages where UAE probably won’t have to do anything as the sprint teams will all chase.
Stage 6 to me looks a good possibility of a breakaway stage but at the same time, Pogacar likes the gravel and with a TT the following day where he will likely extend his lead, UAE might be thinking about controlling stage 6, a good stage for the team they’re bringing, keep pink, and let Pog extend his lead in the TT and mountain stages that follow, kill off any chances of GC for the contenders, and his rivals might then start to think of a podium place.
Stage 6 to me looks a good possibility of a breakaway stage but at the same time, Pogacar likes the gravel and with a TT the following day where he will likely extend his lead, UAE might be thinking about controlling stage 6, a good stage for the team they’re bringing, keep pink, and let Pog extend his lead in the TT and mountain stages that follow, kill off any chances of GC for the contenders, and his rivals might then start to think of a podium place.
Does he? That is he finished a shitload of GT's on where he won or came close. The Tour is a race on where stats in regards to race defining crashes are a bit worse. Still if we analyse it then what we see is Rogla was not selected in the last years edition and on previous two editions he didn't crash per se, to DNF, it was an unfortunate outside influence that made him crash. On top of that Rogla and Pogi already rode together on a similar stage and Rogla was even setting the pace. So my point is both should do just fine on the "sterrato stage". This stage had potential to crack Jonas. But now we don't even know if he will participate and if he will likely mountains will be an appropriate place too. We'll see.
Roglic crashed 2 or 3 times on Basque country, for some reasons he crashed before the Tour 2020, crashed Tour 2021, crashed Tour 2022, he even crashed last year in the Giro.
There's even a high chance he crashes in some stage before the sterrato stage.
I hope he doesn't crash, but the chance is high, more higher than Pogacar, because Pogacar rarely crashes. Last year crash on LBL was an exception.
Talking about Vingegaard, you don't have elements to prove the sterrato stage can crack him. It's just your assumption.
@Froome
The claim was made about the "sterrato stage". That is on how Rogla can potentially beat Pogi at Tour 2024 but due to the crashes the "sterrato stage" goes against his odd. I just wanted to point out it is rather baseless to say that, expecting such stage to have such an effect on Rogla, based on the past. It will likely be more about damage control in the case of a puncture, or similar. More about luck then rider bike handling ability, so all riders to be potentially affected.
As for Jonas i do agree as we simply can not know yet based on the past. It's just that i underlined this stage, on where the duo should try to crack Jonas and the rest is indeed up to Jonas.
The claim was made about the "sterrato stage". That is on how Rogla can potentially beat Pogi at Tour 2024 but due to the crashes the "sterrato stage" goes against his odd. I just wanted to point out it is rather baseless to say that, expecting such stage to have such an effect on Rogla, based on the past. It will likely be more about damage control in the case of a puncture, or similar. More about luck then rider bike handling ability, so all riders to be potentially affected.
As for Jonas i do agree as we simply can not know yet based on the past. It's just that i underlined this stage, on where the duo should try to crack Jonas and the rest is indeed up to Jonas.
Seems like Teddy's fighting the press too -
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...uments-that-giro-is-won-before-it-even-starts
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...uments-that-giro-is-won-before-it-even-starts
And of top of that if Pogi really takes pink on the first day and stays in it through the race. That will likely be more exhausting that the race itself. Dealing with the media on a daily basis. Sort of doing a semi double in itself.
Pogacar is the great favourite for the race withpout discussion thios time, burr for the first stage is arguable, there are more contender, he is a favourite more. The list is potencially big, bur to say 3 names: Allaphillipe, Vernon, Pithie,...
Pogacar objetive should be pink at the end, if he has easy lot of stages no probpem, but his priority this stages is not risk, be safe and dont make a big effort thinking at le Tpour as well...shpuldnt be an objetive forst stage... Second stage is perfect fpr him and I think that is not a big problem to go dor the stage and pink if he and the team want....
But I know Matxin and maybe they want to be pink from the begining at the end..make history,
sweep the board and to get he is the only main character of the race...He is able, but he should think about the rest of the season,,if he and the team will get to forbear of that we will see. What is sure uis that a race with him is nor boring...for me to win clearly form far is not boring.
Pogacar objetive should be pink at the end, if he has easy lot of stages no probpem, but his priority this stages is not risk, be safe and dont make a big effort thinking at le Tpour as well...shpuldnt be an objetive forst stage... Second stage is perfect fpr him and I think that is not a big problem to go dor the stage and pink if he and the team want....
But I know Matxin and maybe they want to be pink from the begining at the end..make history,
sweep the board and to get he is the only main character of the race...He is able, but he should think about the rest of the season,,if he and the team will get to forbear of that we will see. What is sure uis that a race with him is nor boring...for me to win clearly form far is not boring.
Its his best Tour chance since 2020 and probably till the end of career. I see him as a co favourite actually.
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