Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Krzysztof_O]

Time to do what he really doesn’t want to do, wheelsuck

Definitely it seems logical to first see what Jonas will do in the Pyrenees. I think he will attack (he must at some point) so Pogi following is easier than attacking himself. Despite yesterday's prestigious loss Pogacar can still show superb climbing in the Pyrenees and maybe counter-attack Vingo at some point.

 

[skippo12]

In the last two Tours Visma had the better team, which they used to good effect. Now, UAE is much better. Will they be able to do what Visma did? Can they isolate Vingegaard and break him? I'm not sure.

Should probably do the opposite. A harder stage benefits Vingegaard. No reason to help him out. Fake pace for the win. Honor the legacy of Froome/Sky. Ruin the race and win the Tour.

 

[dacooley]

Should probably do the opposite. A harder stage benefits Vingegaard. No reason to help him out. Fake pace for the win. Honor the legacy of Froome/Sky. Ruin the race and win the Tour.

It massively depends on what we'd like to see. As far as Pogacar entertaining us (fans) is concerned he's right, from the giro-tour double perspective this way was a bit weird IMO. Though, it's easy to understand Pogi who loves this kind of supreme demonstations and often succeeds with it...

 

[jono]

Probably you are right. But could anyone remind the case of Pogacar racing smart? It's mostly about 2 scenarios: tearing the opposition apart and completely tearing himself as it happened on Granon and Courchevel. I fail to remember any middle way. He's completely not adapted to this type of racing and I suspect mastering it is way harder for him that it seems.
For sure Pogacar is Pogacar, and no one will get astonished if yesterday's stage will turn out his lowest point in the entire Tour. Nonetheless, not a good sign for him. I presume he's a bit of shocked. Getting caught and losing sprint is what really occurs to him rarely.

If all the armchair experts here have the obvious solution, surely his team car does as well.

 

[dacooley]

If all the armchair experts here have the obvious solution, surely his team car does as well.

I'm just trying to contemplate about it from Pogacar's perspective. I sincerely think that holding back himself after multiple whole-field-thrashing raids is not easy for him, even if the giro-tour mission сalls for it.

 

[yaf]

I think his own comment about the descent was probably spot on. He overdid it and didn't leave enough in the tank for the last two climbs.
Vingegaard did the opposite. Roglic caught up with him and Vingegaard barely had to pedal. Lost 20s but had fresher legs on Pertut.
Maybe Pog expected the chasers to start looking at each other after he created the initial gap. That's what happens more often than not when he creates a gap like this. But that's not how it works against Vingegaard.

Will be interesting to see if UAE/Pog learned their lesson. Don't underestimate Vingegaard. This isn't the Giro where small mistakes didn't matter because Pog's base level was so much better compared to the rest.
He needs to be just as perfect as Visma/Vingegaard when it comes to effort management/pacing. And even though I hate to say it because it takes away from the viewing experience probably go with a more defensive approach.

Tbh i think this is the time for pog to be aggressive more than ever if he is to win the tour. If he does the vingeglu on the high mountains i dont think 1:14 is comfortable margin for the tt. So far jonas has had the best numbers on short climbs upto 20 mins and in the last tt based on his numbers he will win comfortably. Now pog said his training was mainly based on long climbs so he has to drop him in the high mountains if he is to win the tour

 

[Berniece]

Definitely it seems logical to first see what Jonas will do in the Pyrenees. I think he will attack (he must at some point) so Pogi following is easier than attacking himself. Despite yesterday's prestigious loss Pogacar can still show superb climbing in the Pyrenees and maybe counter-attack Vingo at some point.

Indeed, with the team they can control the breakaway if it's dangerous. If Roglic or Evenepoel would attack, increase the pace, but otherwise just keep on riding, and let Vingegaard attack.

 

[Blobs]

Jonas won the battle. Tadej will win the war. He needs to race smart now.

Intelligent racing? That's nonsense. All about the legs.

 

[Savant12]

Pog is not on his Giro legs so he needs the team. Even if Vingo’s form is increasing, he can still be isolated by Pog and Team. Vingo doesn’t have a top mountain dom in Kuss or a smash-all level WVA.

But if Vingo is anything like last year he can easily drop the UAE team and ride away to yellow.

 

[Poursuivant]

All the hype about the big four, I really thought at least one would be bad but they are all there right at the top of GC duking it out. Delicious.

 

[Rackham]

Pog is not on his Giro legs so he needs the team. Even if Vingo’s form is increasing, he can still be isolated by Pog and Team. Vingo doesn’t have a top mountain dom in Kuss or a smash-all level WVA.

But if Vingo is anything like last year he can easily drop the UAE team and ride away to yellow.

Actually I believe Pog really is on his Giro legs.

It's just Vingegaard, Evenepoel & this version of Rog weren't in the Giro.

This is easily verifiable in the GC standings, i.e. after 11 stages Pog has a 4:20 lead over the first rider who isn't called Vinge, Evenepoel or Rog. At the end it's likely to be close to 10 minutes, just like in the Giro - except in the Tour there's 3 riders there who're a thorn in his side (especially one who has proven time & time again he can actually outclimb Pog, hence why he's double reigning TdF champ).

There was no bonking per-se yesterday, just the confirmation that Vingegaard is at his best level.

 

[Netserk]

You know he won't. He could stayed glued on Vinge's back yesterday after he blew the lead but he didn't.

That could've been risky as well. Then Vingegaard sits up too and waits for the two chasers, only to attack on the last climb and drop Pogi. When you saw how they pulled on Cère, Pogi gained more from cooperation than Vingegaard did.

 

[Medvind]

Now Pog knows that Vinge's climbing legs are spectacular so long range attacks in the high mountains are not the smartest. Tactics should be clear, sit on Vinge's wheel and then use his strenght over Vinge: late hard attack, 3-5 minutes effort, or just wait for the sprint if legs aren't super. Will also save him energy which will be important.

Try to expose the weakness of Jumbo LAB. Jorgenson and Kelderman won't be able to put Pog in red before a Vinge attack.

The risk I can see for Pog is if Jumbo LAB manage to make some of the mountain stages really hard by using Lemmen, Laporte, van Aert, Benoot, Tratnik, too push really hard on false flats and lower gradient mountains.

 

[Medvind]

Actually I believe Pog really is on his Giro legs.

It's just Vingegaard, Evenepoel & this version of Rog weren't in the Giro.

This is easily verifiable in the GC standings, i.e. after 11 stages Pog has a 4:20 lead over the first rider who isn't called Vinge, Evenepoel or Rog. At the end it's likely to be close to 10 minutes, just like in the Giro - except in the Tour there's 3 riders there who're a thorn in his side (especially one who has proven time & time again he can actually outclimb Pog, hence why he's double reigning TdF champ).

There was no bonking per-se yesterday, just the confirmation that Vingegaard is at his best level.

Beating G with 10 minutes might seem impressive, but G wasn't at the same level as they year before in the Giro or TdF 2022. He got beaten by Martinez for christ sake! So go in and smash the competition in the tour was never realistic.

 

[Berniece]

Beating G with 10 minutes might seem impressive, but G wasn't at the same level as they year before in the Giro or TdF 2022. He got beaten by Martinez for christ sake! So go in a smash the competition in the tour was never realistic.

Thomas wasn't even impressive last year in the Giro

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

That remco and roglic clawed that close to the race leaders tells me a lot about the pogi situation. Something happened on the road. We shall find out how serious it is at a later point

Something happened? Yes, watch the stage, Pogacar was caught by Vingegaard and then they both went at 90% to the finish. If Vingegaard only comes within 10" and they both continue at 100% Remco +Crashlic end up a minute behind. It's not really that difficult. Pogacar didn't crack, Pogacar didn't have a bad day. See Rackham's post. Exactly like in the Giro he's destroying everybody. Everybody except Vingegaard-Remco-Roglic. Almeida, Rodriguez, who IMO are very comparable to Martinez Thomas in the Giro are already over 4' back.
And got almost 2 minutes yesterday. How far back were they before the Pertus? 35"? On the Pertus too, Pogacar gained time on everybody except Vingegaard. No bonking, no crisis, just a superb Vingegaard, everything else as usual with Pogacar, he destroyed everybody. Just not Vingegaard.

 

[slim charles]

This is gonna be fun. I don't believe for one second that 'it's all over, Vingegaard is the winner'. Obviously, Vingegaard is stronger than anyone thought, but it's not like Pogacar is weak. He will, however, as many of you pointed out, have to adjust his style a bit. I mean, I hope he doesn't, honestly, I would rather have him just continue going like he does, but he will need to be a bit more rational with how he uses his legs, and his teammates.

He seems impatient to give Vingegaard one big blow and finish the tour as soon as possible. He may need to make peace with the fact that it just won't happen like that.

I also think he could have used a little less pressure before the race. I know that, in the end, doesn't decide anything, but he already won a GT. He does have an 'excuse' to not be at the top of his game.

Either way, I think he's still a favorite to win this. It's going to be very hard, but he's still ahead, has a better team, and Vingegaard should feel lack of the base at some point.

 

[dercuforever]

Pog is not on his Giro legs so he needs the team. Even if Vingo’s form is increasing, he can still be isolated by Pog and Team. Vingo doesn’t have a top mountain dom in Kuss or a smash-all level WVA.

But if Vingo is anything like last year he can easily drop the UAE team and ride away to yellow.

Nothing here indicate Pog is less strong than in the Giro. His performance on the two consecutive climb is same level as his TOP giro performances on similar climbs.
It looked like he had a fuel issue, next stages will tell us if that was the case or not.

Concerning the team, best bet for Pogacar is either put someone strong on the break so that if Ving goes from 10k, his teammate can wait for Pog and pace him just a little bit slower than Ving goes, hopefully until last 2k, where Pog can unleash. This could also work if they are in Pog's group, but then it's harder for them to bring Pog that close to the line at such speed.
Making them attack as a GC threat is no use, Ving can easily take them 1min+ in all remaining mountain top finish.

The other strategy is to be glued to Ving, and only take the wind for the sprint or bonus seconds. This year there is no Kuss to tire Pog before an attack, Ving has to do it all by himself, with Pog on the wheel. Much harder.

 

[Rou]

I will say something that some of you might find controversial. Most people were expecting Pog to be stronger on the explosive and 10-15 mins climbs. However Jonas historically has been a mutant on these types of efforts. Examples: Arrate, Domancy, Bejes, etc. Pog made a mistake by going all out so early because he was expecting everyone to give up and look at each other on col de Pertus but Vinge did another one of his mutant performances. But a long climb is something different. We saw on Galibier Jonas cracked and the gap started growing unlike Puy Mary where he was closing on Pogacar. Don't be surprised if Pog is stronger than Jonas in the weekend.
One more thing. People keep repeating that Vingegaard will grow his form into the race. Growing your form into a Grand Tour is a myth. It doesn't exist unless you were sick in the first week. A rider appears to become stronger because his competitors are fading more than him.

 

[CleanCiclismo]

That could've been risky as well. Then Vingegaard sits up too and waits for the two chasers, only to attack on the last climb and drop Pogi. When you saw how they pulled on Cère, Pogi gained more from cooperation than Vingegaard did.

Another theory could be that by working together he showed Jonas that he was still strong, otherwise Jonas could have attacked if he just sat on his wheel. And let's be honest Pogačar was done. If Jonas goes there he likely takes some time back. Well more than 1s. Jonas likely knew Pogačar was at his limit as every time he went on the front the pace died down, but on the other hand he could have been thinking that he was saving himself for the sprint. Either way working together was probably the best choice at the time.

 

[James M]

Pogacar just blew himself up a bit yesterday watching it he spent alot on that downhill and with so far to the line he waited up and while not having the best day he rode away with ease still I see no problem for him when he comes to the long mountains.
UNLESS this is a sign from the giro fatigue then he is in trouble if not he will ride away with ease again.

Hard to not see the giro dont kick in eventually though ngl.

 

[Medvind]

I will say something that some of you might find controversial. Most people were expecting Pog to be stronger on the explosive and 10-15 mins climbs. However Jonas historically has been a mutant on these types of efforts. Examples: Arrate, Domancy, Bejes, etc. Pog made a mistake by going all out so early because he was expecting everyone to give up and look at each other on col de Pertus but Vinge did another one of his mutant performances. But a long climb is something different. We saw on Galibier Jonas cracked and the gap started growing unlike Puy Mary where he was closing on Pogacar. Don't be surprised if Pog is stronger than Jonas in the weekend.
One more thing. People keep repeating that Vingegaard will grow his form into the race. Growing your form into a Grand Tour is a myth. It doesn't exist unless you were sick in the first week. A rider appears to become stronger because his competitors are fading more than him.

Come on, Pog has probably improved a bit on long climbs, but long climbs are definately Vinge's terrain.
On Galibier he went deep to follow a superstrong attack by Pog in the last km and blew himself up a bit.
Yesterday, he settled into his own pace and showed what a remarkable climber he is, taking 30 s on Pog in just 4k.

And in four tours I haven't seen Vinge have a weak moment in the 3rd week. His abilitiy to recover is extraordinary.
Only question this year is if his preparation is good enough to sustain a three week tour on a superhigh level.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Actually I believe Pog really is on his Giro legs.

It's just Vingegaard, Evenepoel & this version of Rog weren't in the Giro.

This is easily verifiable in the GC standings, i.e. after 11 stages Pog has a 4:20 lead over the first rider who isn't called Vinge, Evenepoel or Rog. At the end it's likely to be close to 10 minutes, just like in the Giro - except in the Tour there's 3 riders there who're a thorn in his side (especially one who has proven time & time again he can actually outclimb Pog, hence why he's double reigning TdF champ).

There was no bonking per-se yesterday, just the confirmation that Vingegaard is at his best level.

Agreed, the level of the Tour is very very high. So far Pog has been really strong, even if he lacked energy yesterday at the end. The question is if he can keep form to the end of the race: if so then his chances are still good but Vingo is a strong contender now (but there are question marks over his 3 week durability as well)

 

[Savant12]

By “Giro Legs”, I mean, he was far superior to the competition but never looked like he was going above 90%. His climbing was effortless and he looked like he still had plenty left in the tank.

Now, he has been feeling the Giro fatigue and can’t sustain the Giro-like efforts stage after stage. He can’t sustain his long distance attacks and hold off Vingo; the Galibier was a furious attack but short and he descended better than Vingo. But Vingo has conserved so much energy by allowing others to reel Pog back in and Pog has been on his own out front.

 

[James M]

Only question this year is if his preparation is good enough to sustain a three week tour on a superhigh level.

Only question is for me how the Giro impact him I dont see Vingegaard beeing able to follow at all if the Giro hasnt kicked I dont know what youve seen this year that made you think that.

Question was always how hard the giro will impact him in the double attempt from now and onwards.