Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[canina82]

His best chance is an attack in the last 2 kms.

 

[vappa]

His best chance is an attack in the last 2 kms.

And sneaking away? He's the most watched rider in the peloton, maybe ever. Everyone that can still pedal will try to go after him. Especially if there's Philipsen, MvdP might sacrifice himself again

 

[MariaB]

There's no nuking Capos, the first two are 2km each at 3,5 and 2,5%, basically flat for their speeds. Berta they could but it's only 2km at 6,3%, that's 3 minutes, can't put anyone you want to drop under pressure there

They would waste people who will try (and fail) to position the team before Cipressa and for the lead out on pulling all out on useless terrain

They will lose a lot of riders anyway on Cipressa.

So why they don't take the bull by the horns and try to break the peloton before Cipressa?

 

[canina82]

And sneaking away? He's the most watched rider in the peloton, maybe ever. Everyone that can still pedal will try to go after him. Especially if there's Philipsen, MvdP might sacrifice himself again

I never said he has a good chance of winning MSR with this headwind.

 

[Red Rick]

There's no nuking Capos, the first two are 2km each at 3,5 and 2,5%, basically flat for their speeds. Berta they could but it's only 2km at 6,3%, that's 3 minutes, can't put anyone you want to drop under pressure there

They would waste people who will try (and fail) to position the team before Cipressa and for the lead out on pulling all out on useless terrain

Not only that, they're also super wide. And it's not close enough to the base of Cipressa either.

I've thought about ideas like suddenly blasting Capo Berta if you have located your rival way in the back, but I doubt it's ever gonna work simply because the road is so wide.

 

[MariaB]

Not only that, they're also super wide. And it's not close enough to the base of Cipressa either.

I've thought about ideas like suddenly blasting Capo Berta if you have located your rival way in the back, but I doubt it's ever gonna work simply because the road is so wide.

But Pogacar can only drop MVDP if the latter is tired (Flanders last year as an example).

So UAE should try to make the race so hard that when they reach Cipressa, only Del Toro and Pogacar are left.

And then Pogacar can try to get some separation and solo to the finish.

Is it difficult? Of course.

But we see a lot of times when people can't get organized to bring Pogacar back, even if in theory they should bring him back.

I read today that INEOS is very prepared for Cipressa attack. Everyone will be. So I don't see how can UAE position themselves properly for a huge attack.

 

[Red Rick]

But Pogacar can only drop MVDP if the latter is tired (Flanders last year as an example).

So UAE should try to make the race so hard that when they reach Cipressa, only Del Toro and Pogacar are left.

And then Pogacar can try to get some separation and solo to the finish.

Is it difficult? Of course.

But we see a lot of times when people can't get organized to bring Pogacar back, even if in theory they should bring him back.

I read today that INEOS is very prepared for Cipressa attack. Everyone will be. So I don't see how can UAE position themselves properly for a huge attack.

You cannot make Sanremo hard. It is a fundamental feature of the race.

They did the first 2 hours of Milano Torino at 48kph average. Sounds hard? TBJ averaged under 180 watts in those 2 hours.

 

[MariaB]

You cannot make Sanremo hard. It is a fundamental feature of the race.

They did the first 2 hours of Milano Torino at 48kph average. Sounds hard? TBJ averaged under 180 watts in those 2 hours.

Yes, I agree Rick.

But we didn't have a Cipressa attack for 30 years.
It wasn't feasible today. And we saw what happened last year.

So, they have to try.
Even if they fail. they should try something.

Because Pogi is not dropping no MVDP whatsoever.

 

[canina82]

I'm very curious to see Pogacar's sprint. He is probably 2 kgs heavier and maybe he can be closer to MVP's sprint. Since they will have a headwind in via roma, maybe he can surprise MVP.

 

[yaf2]

But Pogacar can only drop MVDP if the latter is tired (Flanders last year as an example).

So UAE should try to make the race so hard that when they reach Cipressa, only Del Toro and Pogacar are left.

And then Pogacar can try to get some separation and solo to the finish.

Is it difficult? Of course.

But we see a lot of times when people can't get organized to bring Pogacar back, even if in theory they should bring him back.

I read today that INEOS is very prepared for Cipressa attack. Everyone will be. So I don't see how can UAE position themselves properly for a huge attack.

agree. Tomorrow pog & uae have 2 options, first one is trying to win on pure strength like they tried every year which will require an extreme nuke of capo berta by either Christin or deltoro because cipressa option isn’t feasible anymore with the headwind. Both have good 3 minute values & could make a 20-30 man selection like we’ve seen in strade. A pogacar attack on cipressa could have a slightly more success in this situation with the classics men already put to the limit on berta & the wind playing less factor on cipressa since the peleton is already coming with some lactate in their legs. Second option is to make a tactical race with deltoro by reducing the peleton to certain number & let deltoro go with a small group at the top of either cipressa or pogo. With jorgenson, pidcock &co I would fancy his chances in a sprint. I don’t see any scenario other than this where a uae rider can win tomorrow.

 

[canina82]

I also think they will try something on Berta. If not, what was the point of bringing Felix and McNulty, leaving out classics riders like Rui, Politt or Molano?

 

[Gratemans]

Yes, I agree Rick.

But we didn't have a Cipressa attack for 30 years.
It wasn't feasible today. And we saw what happened last year.

So, they have to try.
Even if they fail. they should try something.

Because Pogi is not dropping no MVDP whatsoever.

You gotta go with the option that gives you the biggest chance of a win. That he didn't succeed last year, doesn't mean that it was the wrong strategy.
Attacking on the Capos would just be ridiculous. You can't break a peloton there. They're way too short for that.

Mathieu is always going to be the favourite here, that doesn't mean that UAE should try every random strategy they can think of.

 

[P4rthen0n]

Yes, I agree Rick.

But we didn't have a Cipressa attack for 30 years.
It wasn't feasible today. And we saw what happened last year.

So, they have to try.
Even if they fail. they should try something.

Of course.
And btw last year UAE was very bad positioned at the base of Cipressa. Only Narvaez and Pogacar were at the front. Everybody else on the team was out of the race by then.
So there's still a lot of room to improve with exactly the same tactic.

 

[vappa]

Of course.
And btw last year UAE was very bad positioned at the base of Cipressa. Only Narvaez and Pogacar were at the front. Everybody else on the team was out of the race by then.
So there's still a lot of room to improve with exactly the same tactic.

No they weren't, what are you talking about? Wellens was roughly 15th wheel, Pogacar and Narvaez 40+

 

[Shortcut]

I am Pogi fan because he was/is doing ridiculous things so i hope UAE tries something on Berta. If it doesn't work it will not be end of the world but i don't see Pogi attacking again on Cipressa like last year. Maybe Del Toro will try to create small group there but that is all till Poggio. So Christen, Vermesch need to do something at least on Berta.

 

[The bald fraud]

Headwind is a problem for Pog. No chance that a solo attack from Cipressa can be brought to the finish. Unless the peloton is significantly reduced before and there are only a couple of small groups chasing behind. Someone from UAE (e.g. Großschartner) could maybe reduce it to approx. 80 riders by going hard on Turchino. And then go strong on the Capi (Berta in particular). There might be like 30 riders left when they hit Cipressa.

 

[YavorD]

Headwind is a problem for Pog. No chance that a solo attack from Cipressa can be brought to the finish. Unless the peloton is significantly reduced before and there are only a couple of small groups chasing behind. Someone from UAE (e.g. Großschartner) could maybe reduce it to approx. 80 riders by going hard on Turchino. And then go strong on the Capi (Berta in particular). There might be like 30 riders left when they hit Cipressa.

So you assume that riders won't come back in the 80 flat kilometres between Turcino and the 3 Capi?
Or you think that riders will be dead and they will drop like flies on Berta so that you have 30 people before Cipressa?


If you ask me both scenarios are impossible (under normal circumstances). Even if UAE do drill Turcino, plenty of riders will come back and near full peloton will start the Capi. And you simply can't reduce the peloton so much on Capo Berta unless you go all in with Christen or Del Toro.

 

[Netserk]

No they weren't, what are you talking about? Wellens was roughly 15th wheel, Pogacar and Narvaez 40+

indeed

If I had to guess on the order entering Cipressa (the blue jerseys are hard to tell apart):

1. Marcellusi
2. Honoré
3. Laurence
4. Ganna
5. Philipsen
6. Albanese
7. Hermans
8. -Astana (Ballerini?)
9. Gregoire
10. -Ag2r
11. Van der Poel
12. Mihkels
13. -Visma (Kooij?)
14. Trentin (EDIT: It was in fact him who pulled off in front of Pluimers and made a gap which Gregoire jumped across with Van Gils on his wheel, the latter had to let go again after the corner)
15. Wellens
16. Sweeny
17. Pluimers
18. Campenaerts
19. -Israel
20. -Astana
21. -Jayco (Bling?)
22. -Astana
23. -Israel
24. -Jayco
25. -Visma (Tulett?)
26. Pedersen
27. -Cofidis, crash
28. -Israel
29. APP, crash
30. Kirsch
31. Pidcock
32. -RedBull
33. -Israel
34. -Bahrain
35. Powless
36. -Tudor (Alaphilippe?)
37. -Intermarche
38. -RedBull
39. -Q36.5
40. -Visma
41. -Lotto
42. Pogi
43. -Ag2r
44. -Visma
45. -RedBull
46. Aranburu
47. -(B)DSM
48. -Ag2r
49. -Vini Fantini
50. -Lidl-Trek
51. Narváez
52. -Bahrain
53. -Bahrain
54. -QS
55. -Uno-X
56. -Intermarche
57. -(B)DSM
58. -Alpecin
59. -Bahrain
60. -UAE
61. -Visma
62. -Lidl-Trek
63. -Ag2r
64. -Lotto
65. -Intermarche
66. -RedBull
67. -FdJ
68. -Uno-X
69. -Arkea
70. -Lidl-Trek
71. Geniets

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Headwind is a problem for Pog. No chance that a solo attack from Cipressa can be brought to the finish. Unless the peloton is significantly reduced before and there are only a couple of small groups chasing behind. Someone from UAE (e.g. Großschartner) could maybe reduce it to approx. 80 riders by going hard on Turchino. And then go strong on the Capi (Berta in particular). There might be like 30 riders left when they hit Cipressa.

Last year conditions were superb for Cipressa attack, this year they are generally unfavourable for any long action. It's possible that only on tailwind Poggio sectors UAE will be able to do some damage. Pogacar and Del Toro multiple attacks or a surprising attack in the last 2 km could be the only chance for UAE.

 

[Netserk]

Last year conditions were superb for Cipressa attack, this year they are generally unfavourable for any long action. It's possible that only on tailwind Poggio sectors UAE will be able to do some damage.

on poggio he needs some riders acting as buffer so that van der poel is blocked from immediately getting on his wheel

if so , he should attack from the bottom himself

 

[vappa]

on poggio he needs some riders acting as buffer so that van der poel is blocked from immediately getting on his wheel

if so , he should attack from the bottom himself

I don't believe that even if MvdP is blocked, Pogacar won't be caught in descent, sorry to say as his fan. This exact scenario happened in 2024, Pogacar attacked, MvdP was blocked and basically caught him before descent even started and on descent others caught him as well (Pidcock, Mohoric, Pedersen)

 

[Pantani_lives]

Ah, get rid of the tactical shenanigans. Just go solo on the Torchino.

 

[YavorD]

what a disgrace of a team uae is, christen is already out (remember he crashed in tirreno, and already before that he did too many race days). I said it 2 weeks ago that this team was gonna be a failure and you will see it for yourself in a few hours. All of this because they do not plan the season to support pogacar in this race, letting all these riders doing useless races in january/february. Same thing applies to wellens/narvaez/christen/mcnulty (crash in PN) and even del toro will not be at his best (too many races, already ill in tirreno)

Yes, because people like Narvaez, Del Toro, Wellens etc will sign for UAE if you tell them "you only do the races Pogacar does, so you can support them".
Crashes happen in cycling. Sometimes Pogacar benefits from them (2021, 2024), sometimes he doesn't.
Nothing wrong with giving the other riders some races to ride for themselves.

 

[yaf2]

what a disgrace of a team uae is, christen is already out (remember he crashed in tirreno, and already before that he did too many race days). I said it 2 weeks ago that this team was gonna be a failure and you will see it for yourself in a few hours. All of this because they do not plan the season to support pogacar in this race, letting all these riders doing useless races in january/february. Same thing applies to wellens/narvaez/christen/mcnulty (crash in PN) and even del toro will not be at his best (too many races, already ill in tirreno and he said he had a fever this week)

He was never gonna be in position for cipressa anyway. I said the team is destined to fail when the team roster came out. I know matxin is the one who makes the schedule of each rider but imo pog should be strong in having a say in the schedules

 

[rafa92]

Yes, because people like Narvaez, Del Toro, Wellens etc will sign for UAE if you tell them "you only do the races Pogacar does, so you can support them".
Crashes happen in cycling. Sometimes Pogacar benefits from them (2021, 2024), sometimes he doesn't.
Nothing wrong with giving the other riders some races to ride for themselves.

there are priorities, these riders can do what they want in the rest of the season, you are asking them to sacrifice useless races in january/february, pogacar is trying to make history and this is the only race of the year in which he absolutely needs a superteam. Pogacar has given so much more to the team compared to what he's getting