TDF 2018 Predictions

[Oliwright]

Thought it was time for such a thread, especially since the: 'will Froome ride' debate is over.

So who do you think will win, podium, disappoint or breakthrough?

My Podium: 1 Quintana, 2 Froome, 3 Nibali
1st Yellow: Gaviria
TTT winners: Sky
Biggest Disappointment: Kittel & Katusha to win 0 stages:
Breakthrough ride: Groenewegen to dominate the sprints with 4+ wins.

PS Feel free to add various other prediction's (eg The most stupid statement Lappartient will say during the tour or after/before which stage will England loose on penalties at the World Cup)

 

[Koronin]

Due to the UCI's decision, my response to this at this point is who cares because the UCI has already decided who will win. Any more comment on that doesn't belong on this board. Truthfully I'm actually happy the Indy Car race we're going to is the same weekend as the end of the Tour, because at the moment I really don't care.

 

[lartiste]

I hope Sagan will win another green jersey, personally do not care about the rest since fraudster will join the race ... .

 

[Old&slow]

Groenwegan is my prediction to be the star of this years tour. To bad for Ewan not getting included.

In terms of GC the winner will need three things:
1. A strong TTT team
2. The ability to do a good ITT
3. Not losing massive time on stage 9 or on any of the 3 MTFs.

I only see 6 riders that have a possibility of winning
Froome
Thomas
Bernal
Porte
Roglic
Dumoulin


My prediction then is:

1. Porte
2. Thomas
3. Froome
4. Bernal
5. Quintana

While Porte is the clear favorite odds are he will crash out or get left behind on the cobbles. But I feel inclined to pick him to barely hang on.

But with the TTT and Skys cobble team this tour could easily come down to which sky rider does the best ITT with no one else close.

My hope is to see Cav win a stage but I doubt he even gets a top 5. I am thinking there is a good chance EBH takes over as sprinter after a few stages for DDD.

 

[Amazinmets87]

What experience does Porte have on the cobbles?

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Podium: Froome, Porte, Landa
White: Bernal
Polka: Majka
Green: Sagan
Dissapointing: Nibali
Most impressive: CF win at Alpe d'Huez

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

My Podium: 1 Froome 2 G Thomas 3 Bernal
1st Yellow: Groenewegen
TTT winners: Sky
Biggest Disappointment: No non-Sky rider in the top 8
Breakthrough ride: Rowe surprises all by finishing 8th

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

What experience does Porte have on the cobbles?

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

My Podium: 1 Froome 2 G Thomas 3 Bernal
1st Yellow: Groenewegen
TTT winners: Sky
Biggest Disappointment: No non-Sky rider in the top 8
Breakthrough ride: Rowe surprises all by finishing 8th

LOL.
Only difference is that Rowe beats Thomas on GC!

 

[Koronin]

Why bother even racing it. They can just hand Froome the trophy now since that is what they want. Anyway, I shall be enjoying the Indy Car race in Mid Ohio on the final weekend of the race and now don't care that I'm missing the end of the race. For that matter don't even care if NBC is even bothering to show it on TV or not either.

 

[Põhja Konn]

1) French public will block the road on stage 3 just before Sky is about to take off forcing a neutralisation of the stage.

2) Sub-39-minute ascent of Alpe d'Huez by everyones favourite Kenyan.

 

[Moviefan1203]

Re:

Why bother even racing it. They can just hand Froome the trophy now since that is what they want. Anyway, I shall be enjoying the Indy Car race in Mid Ohio on the final weekend of the race and now don't care that I'm missing the end of the race. For that matter don't even care if NBC is even bothering to show it on TV or not either.

Because we love the sport.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Why bother even racing it. They can just hand Froome the trophy now since that is what they want. Anyway, I shall be enjoying the Indy Car race in Mid Ohio on the final weekend of the race and now don't care that I'm missing the end of the race. For that matter don't even care if NBC is even bothering to show it on TV or not either.

Don't despair yet. There is one superior force that neither WADA nor UCI can control, Nibali's voodoo.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Why bother even racing it. They can just hand Froome the trophy now since that is what they want. Anyway, I shall be enjoying the Indy Car race in Mid Ohio on the final weekend of the race and now don't care that I'm missing the end of the race. For that matter don't even care if NBC is even bothering to show it on TV or not either.

Because we love the sport.

But we already know the outcome so there's not reason.

 

[Moviefan1203]

Re: Re:

Why bother even racing it. They can just hand Froome the trophy now since that is what they want. Anyway, I shall be enjoying the Indy Car race in Mid Ohio on the final weekend of the race and now don't care that I'm missing the end of the race. For that matter don't even care if NBC is even bothering to show it on TV or not either.

Because we love the sport.

But we already know the outcome so there's not reason.

I certainly don’t know who is going to win.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Why bother even racing it. They can just hand Froome the trophy now since that is what they want. Anyway, I shall be enjoying the Indy Car race in Mid Ohio on the final weekend of the race and now don't care that I'm missing the end of the race. For that matter don't even care if NBC is even bothering to show it on TV or not either.

Don't despair yet. There is one superior force that neither WADA nor UCI can control, Nibali's voodoo.

Even though I won't be watching, I'll be cheering for Enzo and his voodoo

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Why bother even racing it. They can just hand Froome the trophy now since that is what they want. Anyway, I shall be enjoying the Indy Car race in Mid Ohio on the final weekend of the race and now don't care that I'm missing the end of the race. For that matter don't even care if NBC is even bothering to show it on TV or not either.

Because we love the sport.

But we already know the outcome so there's not reason.

We most definitely do not. I think Thomas is a bigger favourite than Froome.

And with Landa having joined the blue side, they will be very difficult to control - even for Sky.

Tons of others are lining up aiming for the top spots, including Bardet and his insane team and Nibali and his insane team. And who knows what Roglic can do and if Kruijswijk can do a 2016 Giro? And what about Adam Yates - has he taken a step up like his brother? And what about Zakarin, Mollema, Dan Martin, Fuglsang (sorry Netserk), Urán etc.?

And should he survive the cobbles; Richie Porte?

There are more contenders than I have ever seen before, and many of them have very strong teams. So it's definitely not decided beforehand.

Unless you feel that the Giro was as well and maintain it was predictably won by Froome, even though it was the most unpredictable race in living memory.

Froome has shown signs of decline the past year and lost time on stages, which he didn't do before. He can't afford that this year, and the others will not allow for a failure like Peyragudes last year.

And it's a very mountainous parcours this year. Not good for someone who has the Giro in his legs.

But unfortunately a lot of normally rational people become blind because of this UCI decision. It's like you're using a defense mechanism, so in the unlikely event that Froome will win you can say, "I told you, this sport is finished". And in the other event you will be positively surprised. Better than to be negatively surprised and wrong at the same time, which I'm risking.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Why bother even racing it. They can just hand Froome the trophy now since that is what they want. Anyway, I shall be enjoying the Indy Car race in Mid Ohio on the final weekend of the race and now don't care that I'm missing the end of the race. For that matter don't even care if NBC is even bothering to show it on TV or not either.

Because we love the sport.

But we already know the outcome so there's not reason.

We most definitely do not. I think Thomas is a bigger favourite than Froome.

And with Landa having joined the blue side, they will be very difficult to control - even for Sky.

Tons of others are lining up aiming for the top spots, including Bardet and his insane team and Nibali and his insane team. And who knows what Roglic can do and if Kruijswijk can do a 2016 Giro? And what about Adam Yates - has he taken a step up like his brother? And what about Zakarin, Mollema, Dan Martin, Fuglsang (sorry Netserk), Urán etc.?

And should he survive the cobbles; Richie Porte?

There are more contenders than I have ever seen before, and many of them have very strong teams. So it's definitely not decided beforehand.

Unless you feel that the Giro was as well and maintain it was predictably won by Froome, even though it was the most unpredictable race in living memory.

Froome has shown signs of decline the past year and lost time on stages, which he didn't do before. He can't afford that this year, and the others will not allow for a failure like Peyragudes last year.

And it's a very mountainous parcours this year. Not good for someone who has the Giro in his legs.

But unfortunately a lot of normally rational people become blind because of this UCI decision. It's like you're using a defense mechanism, so in the unlikely event that Froome will win you can say, "I told you, this sport is finished". And in the other event you will be positively surprised. Better than to be negatively surprised and wrong at the same time, which I'm risking.

Actually with the way the Giro played out, I actually do and I really can say anymore on my feelings of the Giro on this part of the forum.
He has been showing signs of decline, however he can afford that if he is allowed to get away with anything, which is what appears to be the case.

 

[tobydawq]

Really? It was predictable that he would bleed time in the beginning of the race, win a hard-fought battle with Yates on the Zoncolan, bleed time the next day, ride a mediocre TT and then blow everything away on stage 19?

You should begin betting if you aren't already.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Really? It was predictable that he would bleed time in the beginning of the race, win a hard-fought battle with Yates on the Zoncolan, bleed time the next day, ride a mediocre TT and then blow everything away on stage 19?

You should begin betting if you aren't already.

Actually I wasn't happy, but also wasn't surprised at all. It more appeared like lay low for the first two weeks, then do whatever you need to to go and win it.

Can't bet as I'd really rather not get in trouble with the state or US govt and I definitely don't live in Nevada although I'm not sure cycling is an option to be bet on there or not. I had HOPED someone else would win, but I figured he would and that it was already decided before hand.

 

[Moviefan1203]

I have a hard time seeing Froome win with the Giro in his legs.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I have a hard time seeing Froome win with the Giro in his legs.

I hope you're right, but we've seen he can get away with anything.

 

[Moviefan1203]

Re: Re:

I have a hard time seeing Froome win with the Giro in his legs.

I hope you're right, but we've seen he can get away with anything.

I don’t think he can get away with anything. He’s an exciting racer who knows how to animate a race, but he had to go really deep to win the Giro.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Really? It was predictable that he would bleed time in the beginning of the race, win a hard-fought battle with Yates on the Zoncolan, bleed time the next day, ride a mediocre TT and then blow everything away on stage 19?

You should begin betting if you aren't already.

Actually I wasn't happy, but also wasn't surprised at all. It more appeared like lay low for the first two weeks, then do whatever you need to to go and win it.

Can't bet as I'd really rather not get in trouble with the state or US govt and I definitely don't live in Nevada although I'm not sure cycling is an option to be bet on there or not. I had HOPED someone else would win, but I figured he would and that it was already decided before hand.

Really? Is it illegal to bet outside Nevada?

In Denmark betting commercials is pretty much the only thing on the TV between broadcasts - you'd think the state has some agenda of getting everybody addicted to gambling here.

And I have a friend who caught a bet of a Froome victory at 20/1 just before the Bardonecchia stage.

 

[Moviefan1203]

Re: Re:

Really? It was predictable that he would bleed time in the beginning of the race, win a hard-fought battle with Yates on the Zoncolan, bleed time the next day, ride a mediocre TT and then blow everything away on stage 19?

You should begin betting if you aren't already.

Actually I wasn't happy, but also wasn't surprised at all. It more appeared like lay low for the first two weeks, then do whatever you need to to go and win it.

Can't bet as I'd really rather not get in trouble with the state or US govt and I definitely don't live in Nevada although I'm not sure cycling is an option to be bet on there or not. I had HOPED someone else would win, but I figured he would and that it was already decided before hand.

Really? Is it illegal to bet outside Nevada?

In Denmark betting commercials is pretty much the only thing on the TV between broadcasts - you'd think the state has some agenda of getting everybody addicted to gambling here.

And I have a friend who caught a bet of a Froome victory at 20/1 just before the Bardonecchia stage.

Sports betting is still in the process of being legalized in the United States.