TDF 2018 Predictions

[movingtarget]

Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

Been quite a while for Tejay putting in a performance in a GT. A return to his 2012 days would surprise me. He just seems to have lost the ability to hold it together for three weeks and his climbing is not what it was. Even his TT which was usually good is now hit and miss. Still I hope he can do better than the previous few years.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Podium:
Nibali
Bardet
Fuglsang

Green:
Sagan

Polka:
Barguil

White:
Martin

1st Yellow:
Gaviria

TTT winners:
Sky

Biggest Disappointment:
Sky & Movistar imploding on the cobbles

Breakthrough ride:
Outside of the obvious (Fuglsang), I'll say Roglic riding top 5.

 

[ppanther92]

Re: Re:

Has there ever been a tour with as many good sprinters as what we are going to see this year?

It's definitely a stacked field. A shame Bouhannni and Ewan aren't here or we would have had just about every top sprinter bar Viviani.

First of them, Bennett that proved himself superior to Viviani during the last Giro.

When did that happen?

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

Been quite a while for Tejay putting in a performance in a GT. A return to his 2012 days would surprise me. He just seems to have lost the ability to hold it together for three weeks and his climbing is not what it was. Even his TT which was usually good is now hit and miss. Still I hope he can do better than the previous few years.

Good solid all around rider. But that is all he is. I wish that wasn’t the case. Any big climb against elite competition and he’s losing time, every time.

 

[Beobachter]

Re: Re:

Has there ever been a tour with as many good sprinters as what we are going to see this year?

It's definitely a stacked field. A shame Bouhannni and Ewan aren't here or we would have had just about every top sprinter bar Viviani.

First of them, Bennett that proved himself superior to Viviani during the last Giro.

When did that happen?

As soon the race was on Italian soil! (one would say : as soon as the real Giro really began )
It's hard to miss that fact

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Has there ever been a tour with as many good sprinters as what we are going to see this year?

It's definitely a stacked field. A shame Bouhannni and Ewan aren't here or we would have had just about every top sprinter bar Viviani.

First of them, Bennett that proved himself superior to Viviani during the last Giro.

When did that happen?

As soon the race was on Italian soil! (one would say : as soon as the real Giro really began )
It's hard to miss that fact

I don't agree, particularly if you watched how every sprint went down. And I said "just about" every top sprinter. Bennett would be next to add to that list. The young Germans aren't there just yet and I'm not even going to consider Coquard. I used to like him but he seems like he has no ambition.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

Sure but how it was Porte's fault he lost time in 2016? Even Froome has bad luck as we saw in 2014.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

Let's be real, Froome's going to smash this race into the ground, no gifts, no holding back.

Unless some surprise contender rises up the way he did in 2011, it won't even be close.

Do you seriously think Froome was holding back in some his tdf wins with a slight exception of 2016?

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

Sure but how it was Porte's fault he lost time in 2016? Even Froome has bad luck as we saw in 2014.

Never said it's always his fault. I said he always has some issue. Bad luck is an issue, doesn't have to be his fault.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

You really want that ban so badly since you keep saying this all the time?

 

[Cookster15]

Koronin: If you ever roll a dice or play roulette (or have a simple understanding of statistics) you will know luck balances out over time. Porte then should be due good luck. If he stays on his bike I think he can podium (at least). Statistically the chances are he will not crash.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

You really want that ban so badly since you keep saying this all the time?

Froome is the favorite, however if the playing field was actually level he should in reality have less than a 50% chance of actually winning it. Thus just putting Froome as the favorite should mean you also are looking for a ban simply because there is no realist way he should be the favorite after winning the Giro the way he did. Besides calling him their "golden boy" has nothing to do with clinic stuff. He's their favorite and likely their money maker. Or at least how I'm using that term. They want him to win. That doesn't guarantee it.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Koronin: If you ever roll a dice or play roulette (or have a simple understanding of statistics) you will know luck balances out over time. Porte then should be due good luck. If he stays on his bike I think he can podium (at least). Statistically the chances are he will not crash.

Believe me, I hope he can finally get through a GT without any issues of any type and then we can actually see what he's capable of doing. That would be nice. His team will put him in great shape after the TTT, plus he is fairly good at TTs.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

Sure but how it was Porte's fault he lost time in 2016? Even Froome has bad luck as we saw in 2014.

Never said it's always his fault. I said he always has some issue. Bad luck is an issue, doesn't have to be his fault.

Sure, but I don't think you can use something like a flat tire as a basis for predicting a future result. I don't even think you should use crashes but at least with those you can try and argue that the rider is somehow at fault. He's already showed he has what it takes to be a podium contender.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

Sure but how it was Porte's fault he lost time in 2016? Even Froome has bad luck as we saw in 2014.

Never said it's always his fault. I said he always has some issue. Bad luck is an issue, doesn't have to be his fault.

Sure, but I don't think you can use something like a flat tire as a basis for predicting a future result. I don't even think you should use crashes but at least with those you can try and argue that the rider is somehow at fault. He's already showed he has what it takes to be a podium contender.[/quote]

My argument with Porte is that for some reason he has really bad luck.

 

[bambino]

Some current forecasts predicting some rain in Roubaix area day before the 9th stage. Please oh please let that get reality on the actual day.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Koronin: If you ever roll a dice or play roulette (or have a simple understanding of statistics) you will know luck balances out over time. Porte then should be due good luck. If he stays on his bike I think he can podium (at least). Statistically the chances are he will not crash.

Believe me, I hope he can finally get through a GT without any issues of any type and then we can actually see what he's capable of doing. That would be nice. His team will put him in great shape after the TTT, plus he is fairly good at TTs.

Thanks better . Yes, don't get me wrong, I still have lingering doubts based upon history but if we put bad luck aside and look at his recent past and circumstances of his buildup since his return after his crash I think Porte looks very promising. The word going around on Porte at the moment says similar too from what I know.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Koronin: If you ever roll a dice or play roulette (or have a simple understanding of statistics) you will know luck balances out over time. Porte then should be due good luck. If he stays on his bike I think he can podium (at least). Statistically the chances are he will not crash.

Believe me, I hope he can finally get through a GT without any issues of any type and then we can actually see what he's capable of doing. That would be nice. His team will put him in great shape after the TTT, plus he is fairly good at TTs.

Thanks better . Yes, don't get me wrong, I still have lingering doubts based upon history but if we put bad luck aside and look at his recent past and circumstances of his buildup since his return after his crash I think Porte looks very promising. The word going around on Porte at the moment says similar too from what I know.

I hope his bad luck doesn't show up in the Tour. I really do. I don't dislike him, and actually would like to see him do well. He also won Suiss without expending unnecessary energy or having any bad luck, which is a good start. I just don't trust it enough to say put him on a fantasy team. Hope he proves that decision wrong.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

Tejay and Porte have three top fives between them in the Tour which shows they can handle the three weeks but we have seen the best of Tejay it seems unless he can completely turn his career around. The hype on Tejay when he was young was much bigger than it was on Porte. As for Porte sometimes his race awareness lets him down. When he can back off on a descent like Pinot would do, he doesn't although other times he does ! Punctures are a lottery of course. His 2016 Tour proved he can handle a grand tour but not reaching the podium just means the non believers still doubt and again after the disaster of last year their thinking is probably reasonable. Like many sportsmen of the past Porte has the raw ability but so far hasn't managed to convert it to success. Where another rider with Porte's ability may have had three podiums by now so far he has none. His fans still hope as they did for Cadel, but he was a totally different character and rider.

 

[Koronin]

I hope Porte can manage to make it through the Tour without any problems which do seem to plague him (some of his own doing some of it just bad luck). I have more faith in Bardet who possibly doesn't have the raw talent that Porte has, but has better luck and maybe better decision making. I think something happened with Tejay mentally because yes he's never lived up to the potential we saw early in his career.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I hope Porte can manage to make it through the Tour without any problems which do seem to plague him (some of his own doing some of it just bad luck). I have more faith in Bardet who possibly doesn't have the raw talent that Porte has, but has better luck and maybe better decision making. I think something happened with Tejay mentally because yes he's never lived up to the potential we saw early in his career.

it seems that the TT issues have shadowed Bardet this year. Not many people are talking about him at all. Maybe the TTT is just expected to add to his problems ?

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I hope Porte can manage to make it through the Tour without any problems which do seem to plague him (some of his own doing some of it just bad luck). I have more faith in Bardet who possibly doesn't have the raw talent that Porte has, but has better luck and maybe better decision making. I think something happened with Tejay mentally because yes he's never lived up to the potential we saw early in his career.

it seems that the TT issues have shadowed Bardet this year. Not many people are talking about him at all. Maybe the TTT is just expected to add to his problems ?

Truthfully I have no idea how good or bad AG2R is for a TTT. Yeah, he's still not learned how to do a decent TT. You'd think now that he has his degree he'd spend more time trying to get better with the TT.