Cavendish might still find his form before july, but at the moment he doesn't show anything suggesting total dominance at the Tour this year. Could his lack of form lead to more teams aiming for stage wins on flat stages? Last year it looked like Hushovd was the only one trying to beat Cavendish.
Let's have a look at the teams.
Astana
Allan Davis could perhaps get a place in the team, but he won't be near a win, and he won't have a team working for him.
Euskaltel
Koldo Fernandez? Haven't seen him this year. No chance.
Garmin
At the moment, Farrar looks like the best sprinter in the peloton. He has a good team to help him, Millar, Dean etc. But will he burn all his matches at the Giro? He'll probably drop out after today though.
Rabobank
I think I heard somewhere that Freire won't go to the Tour this year, but it might have changed since he missed the Giro? He can win without a team, but I don't think he is fast enough in a pure sprint anymore. But in tougher stages, slight uphill finishes, definitely still one to watch.
Radioshack
Steegmans might go to the Tour, but he won't have a team at his disposal. Don't think he's up to it.
Saxo
Breschel is quite fast, but maybe not fast enough. Could do some damage if they decide to work for him though, with Cancellara, Voigt, Larsson and O'Grady leading him out?
Sky
Depends on what team they send. Henderson and Sutton are reasonably fast, but the team might be organized around Wiggins. Hagen is reportedly ready to ride again at the Bayern Rundfahrt, so he might make the team. He's one to watch when the pure sprinters are dropped, and could also be a great leadout for Henderson or Sutton.
BMC
Nope
Milram
Ciolek used to be one of the most promising sprinters, but hasn't shown much lately as well as being plagued by injury. They won't have a chance at GC, so maybe they should build their team around him? Förster as a leadout man?
QuickStep
Should build a big sprint train like before, and try to match the HTC train. They have no GC riders, but plenty of riders who could work hard for Boonen in a sprint. But is he still fast enough?
Omega Pharma-Lotto
No GC threat, so why not try and build a decent train for Van Avermaet if he's up to it? Roelandts, Lang, Hoste and Elijzen in the train?
Caisse
Rojas? Not fast enough.
Footon
Who?
HTC
Will Cavendish find his form come july? Will Rogers work in the train if he does well in GC? Will Martin and Monfort save themselves to work for Rogers in the mountains if he's well placed and Cavendish is out of form?
AG2R
Do they have any sprinters? Hinault perhaps, but he isn't good enough.
BBox
Nope
Cofidis
Duque? Not fast enough
FdJ
Chavanel, Sulzberger and Hutarovich are all ok, but that's all. Can't see them winning a sprint at the Tour.
Lampre
Petacchi didn't do well at the Giro, but he can't be overlooked. Will he have Furlan or Hondo with him?
Liquigas
Will probably send a bunch of climbers to the Tour, but Bennati could do well if Quinziato and Chicchi could help him in the leadout. Might need a longer train though, he doesn't seem do too well on his own.
Cervelo
Hushovd was the only one challenging Cavendish last year, but his broken collarbone was bad timing. If he recovers well he should be up there, and Cervelo seem to have a good train going in California. If he's not up to it, Haussler could be. A good cooperation between those two is needed anyway, something they lacked a bit last year.
Let's have a look at the teams.
Astana
Allan Davis could perhaps get a place in the team, but he won't be near a win, and he won't have a team working for him.
Euskaltel
Koldo Fernandez? Haven't seen him this year. No chance.
Garmin
At the moment, Farrar looks like the best sprinter in the peloton. He has a good team to help him, Millar, Dean etc. But will he burn all his matches at the Giro? He'll probably drop out after today though.
Rabobank
I think I heard somewhere that Freire won't go to the Tour this year, but it might have changed since he missed the Giro? He can win without a team, but I don't think he is fast enough in a pure sprint anymore. But in tougher stages, slight uphill finishes, definitely still one to watch.
Radioshack
Steegmans might go to the Tour, but he won't have a team at his disposal. Don't think he's up to it.
Saxo
Breschel is quite fast, but maybe not fast enough. Could do some damage if they decide to work for him though, with Cancellara, Voigt, Larsson and O'Grady leading him out?
Sky
Depends on what team they send. Henderson and Sutton are reasonably fast, but the team might be organized around Wiggins. Hagen is reportedly ready to ride again at the Bayern Rundfahrt, so he might make the team. He's one to watch when the pure sprinters are dropped, and could also be a great leadout for Henderson or Sutton.
BMC
Nope
Milram
Ciolek used to be one of the most promising sprinters, but hasn't shown much lately as well as being plagued by injury. They won't have a chance at GC, so maybe they should build their team around him? Förster as a leadout man?
QuickStep
Should build a big sprint train like before, and try to match the HTC train. They have no GC riders, but plenty of riders who could work hard for Boonen in a sprint. But is he still fast enough?
Omega Pharma-Lotto
No GC threat, so why not try and build a decent train for Van Avermaet if he's up to it? Roelandts, Lang, Hoste and Elijzen in the train?
Caisse
Rojas? Not fast enough.
Footon
Who?
HTC
Will Cavendish find his form come july? Will Rogers work in the train if he does well in GC? Will Martin and Monfort save themselves to work for Rogers in the mountains if he's well placed and Cavendish is out of form?
AG2R
Do they have any sprinters? Hinault perhaps, but he isn't good enough.
BBox
Nope
Cofidis
Duque? Not fast enough
FdJ
Chavanel, Sulzberger and Hutarovich are all ok, but that's all. Can't see them winning a sprint at the Tour.
Lampre
Petacchi didn't do well at the Giro, but he can't be overlooked. Will he have Furlan or Hondo with him?
Liquigas
Will probably send a bunch of climbers to the Tour, but Bennati could do well if Quinziato and Chicchi could help him in the leadout. Might need a longer train though, he doesn't seem do too well on his own.
Cervelo
Hushovd was the only one challenging Cavendish last year, but his broken collarbone was bad timing. If he recovers well he should be up there, and Cervelo seem to have a good train going in California. If he's not up to it, Haussler could be. A good cooperation between those two is needed anyway, something they lacked a bit last year.
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