TDF Stage 17 - Thursday, July 22 2010, Pau - Col du Tourmalet, 174 km

[Angliru]

If contador doesnt win this stage, he could be the first mj in paris to not have won a stage for a long time. Also first winner in a while to do that in any gt.

I worded it so that Oscar Perreiro doesnt count cos Flandis was on the mj in paris.

Valverde in last year's Vuelta.

 

[Cervelo77]

Heck, AS lost almost two minutes to Alberto at the Annecy stage last year.

That is probably the best indicator of how things will go this time around. The Annecy TT stage was 40 something kms and mostly flat except for the Bluffy climb. The Bordeaux one is 50 km and pretty much a pancake. That should favour power and aerodynamic position, so tick, tick, Contador. If AS is in yellow he may only need 1:30 to 2:00.

 

[Bala Verde]

Possibly bad weather (rain, thunder) on thursday...

(see also france meteo)

and the town Adast, 30k before the end of the stage:

rain, 14-17C

 

[Señor_Contador]

That is probably the best indicator of how things will go this time around. The Annecy TT stage was 40 something kms and mostly flat except for the Bluffy climb. The Bordeaux one is 50 km and pretty much a pancake. That should favour power and aerodynamic position, so tick, tick, Contador. If AS is in yellow he may only need 1:30 to 2:00.

Like I said, I'm talking specifics here, not hypothetics.

My opinion is that Alberto's main concern is twofold: Put time on Menchov and Sanchez and follow Andy. The later, judging by what happened in previous TTs, will need at least 1:45 to ride for the win.

If Andy loses time to AC tomorrow he won't make the podium.

Menchov is ruthless and Sánchez is riding the Tour of his life.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Possibly bad weather (rain, thunder) on thursday...

(see also france meteo)

The stars are aligned for an epic stage.

Remember that Heras victory on the Angliru when it was pouring cats and dogs? That was spectacular to watch.

 

[Bala Verde]

Menchov indicated that he won't attack, but he'll instead be looking at Andy and Contador. He'll try to follow them. source

 

[Dedelou]

These posts saying Andy MUST take two minutes are just pure guesswork - seemingly based on races a long time ago and/or when Contador was a lot better than Schleck.

My guesswork is this - if Schleck is strong enough to take 45 seconds out of Contador tomorrow then that will be enough to win the Tour. It would say for sure that Schleck is clearly the stronger rider of the two and while Contador's superior TT technique might buy him some time on Saturday it wouldn't be enough to overcome a stronger rider in the yellow jersey

""Clearly the stronger"" You must be evidencing this by his total and absolute "clear" domination in all climbs , I supose?. The way i see it, it is not clear at all. Before his mistake in gear's shifting Andy had 31 seconds on Contador given to him by a broken spoke on the cobble stage where cancellara help gave him the ride to the finish. The rest was a 10 seconds he wont on the flat ending section of a middle mountain stage, which he went on to loose a few days later on a steaper climb.. So where is the "cleary the stronger" part? Can you clarify it for me?

 

[Rob_Roy]

That is probably the best indicator of how things will go this time around. The Annecy TT stage was 40 something kms and mostly flat except for the Bluffy climb. The Bordeaux one is 50 km and pretty much a pancake. That should favour power and aerodynamic position, so tick, tick, Contador. If AS is in yellow he may only need 1:30 to 2:00.

I think both AS and AC liked last years course a lot better than the flat stage this year.

AC took around 43 seconds on the first flat 18 km last year.On the last 22 km he took another minute on Andy.Over 20 seconds just on the descent from the mountain top to the finish line.
I think that if AS wears the MJ he will fight as a lion and maybe do as good as Frank performed in TdS.Maybe dropping just above 1 minute on AC.

Getting that minute on AC will be the hard part though as AC showed on Madeleine that he can follow AS with ease.

AS even said after that stage that he would have cracked himself if he had attacked just one more time.

AS will need the team around him tomorrow,and I really hope that Jens are feeling okay after the rest day.I remember Jens on the Madeleine climb,he will be needed.What they have to do is to give Jens painkillers and turn his bike in the direction he should go..

To bad Jens cant win TdF himself,I would support him to the gates of hell if needed..

 

[Dedelou]

Andy won't automatically become a minute faster simply because of the colour of his jersey.

Yes, it is possible for him to win if he is only a minute ahead of Contador, heck, even if he is behind it is still possible.

To have a good chance of winning, he needs 2 minutes. (The 'incident' didn't change that!)

I am with you on this point, but following your thoughts a little further: In order to get the 2 minutes and 8 seconds Andy would need to attack contador quite early in the climb of the Tourmalet. Any attack by Andy has ramifications for Sanchez , Menchow and a few others i would expect that they will all respond. I do believe that Contador has preprared something for this climb, long before today. So did Andy, probably. We remember that both came here during the spring season and climbed it a few times in search of "sensations". The questions remain do they still have the strengh to do what they originally intented during their pre-tour preparation? The tour has unfolded differently than what most had planned, I am sure. Although there is no way for me to know to what extend that affects the leaders. It seems however that what happened to Andy the other day is a lesson that all should take seriously. If you don't have much of a marging over your oponents and you leave things to the last moment, you are in critical danger should something happen. What happened to Andy left him with 3 mountains stages to recoup . A terrain that is favorable to his skills. Yet so far he has not regained any seconds. That leaves tomorrow as his last mountain chance.

 

[Dedelou]

Don't think that will happen-- Saxo would burn out long before the foot of the Tourmalet on those two Cat. 1 climbs. If Andy has any teammates to launch him there, it will only be because they went up the road early on. Besides, Saxo-- and everyone else-- needs to make Astana ride hard on the front for most of the stage, if they're going to isolate Contador on the last climb.

Might even be a backdoor way here for someone like Menchov or Sanchez to steal the whole ball of wax: if a couple of top ten guys get up the road in a break it could burn out Astana's horses before Tourmalet, then Andy attacks repeatedly and cracks Contador, only to run out of gas himself before summit and have a winning counter-attack go by him. However-- reality is usually far less exciting than these fantasies of mine. . .

I like your fantasies.. now if we could sell them to a few DS and convince the riders involved they are worth living them rather than the boring calculating win that gets them millions ? hummm!. I think I have better chance winning the lotto

 

[Dedelou]

BTW

does anyone know how many fans will be on the tourmalet for this mtf

Will it be like alp d huez.

THey said 1 million people were on the zoncolan this year, and tomorows mtf is the final mountain stage of the grandady of them all. Is it going to be like that?

I suspect crowds will be massive in some spots and not others.. The topography of the Tourmalet is so different than the alp and the 21 lacets. The capacity to have a spot where you can see the race is bigger , especially on the Luz-Bareges side they will be climbing, and so the total number of spectators could be different and much higher. Last year, the tourmalet was badly used strategically and yet the crowds were huge, but how do you count those things? Locations can be accessed from different directions. However , a finish at the top of the Tourmalet has not been witnessed since the early years (60 + I believe and the modern , comercial TDF has never stopped there before . For the first time in many years , I will not ride up to see the racers climb, (( being that I am stuck in NYC.

 

[Kwibus]

Andy will miss Frank tomorrow. If he had Frank he could attack before the Tourmalet or atleast make the race so hard that only he and a few favourites were left. If he makes the stage hard tomorrow he'll either end up alone early which would be his ideal situation, but most likely with some other favourites who will refuse to do anything.
If he had Frank then Frank would do the dirty work so that Andy could keep on attacking.
I think Andy is a little better then AC on the mountains this year. When AS attacked, but his mechanics refused AC attacked and tried to get as much time as possible, but once AS started riding again AS gained time on AC.
Hardest part for AS is to get AC out of his wheel tho...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Contador vs Schleck
Menchov vs S.Sanchez

But also a bit Menchov vs Sanchez vs Contador vs Schleck...when is the last time we could say that before the final mountain stage?

 

[bjaelkesex]

Contador vs Schleck
Menchov vs S.Sanchez

But also a bit Menchov vs Sanchez vs Contador vs Schleck...when is the last time we could say that before the final mountain stage?

2008?

Sastre vs Frank vs Evans vs Menchov (vs Kohl)

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

The image of happiness on the rest day.

 

[icefire]

The image of happiness on the rest day.

Hasn't he won the rest day?

 

[Angliru]

Good post, Sasquatch.

I'd really like to see that, actually. It would animate the race considerably. I think there are going to be a lot of nerves on that stage, and the peloton could shatter early.

Honestly, I'm not sold on the idea of Saxo waiting until the Tourmalet. Andy needs AT LEAST 2 minutes for the final TT. I don't see him getting it on one climb UNLESS maybe Contador is isolated. Which will be hard to do.

If Caisse is going for the team classification wouldn't it be better for them to sit in and let some other team set the pace to ensure that their riders aren't cooked before the base of the Tourmalet? As was stated those that are cooked by the base of the Tourmalet will lose big minutes by the finish.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

You see Armstrong thinking back of the old days when he had some blood refills on days like these and the team would fly the next day.
"Damn, if only...."

 

[Ryaguas]

Wait, what? The only thing Levi attacks is the rear wheel in front of him.

Hahahaha EPIC!!!

Vino has to crack sometime.

That is BLASPHEMY!!!! Vino NEVER! listen to me! NEVER cracks! he lets the others win cuz if he wins everything that wouldn't be funny for the public...

Ok no joke... El Pistolero is going to attack big time in Le Tourmalet... he is not that kind of rider who would accept to win La Grande Boucle w/o showing that he is the best climber and that he deserves this victory! I'm quite sure that he is going to wait for an attack from Andy between 3 and 4km before the finish to counter-attack with ALL the energies that he has...

Also (I know that I've said this before) Le Tourmalet is his favorite climb ever... He wants to win there and put his name in this mythical climb... He has planned this for months so don't expect just a defensive AC, He will attack and like he did in Verbier... The only "all in" attack that we have seen from him was in Mende and that broke Andy's legs... what happens in Ax - 3 Domaines were just smalls attack to produce an attack from Andy to then counter-attack and kill Andy in that climb, but Andy never attacked...

Everything is in AC's side... He has a better team for the climbs, Andy has to attack and that means having El Pistolero on his back and He can be surprised, Andy also has to defend his second place from Samu and Menchov, Andy is still angry and that can affect his desicions, Andy still remembers that he couldn't follow AC in Mende and that AC has an acceleration that he hasn't showed yet...

I see really difficult to Andy to do something tomorrow... He has to pray for a mech problem from el Pistolero or for a really really bad day for AC... Sorry that is how I see this situation...

 

[RedFury]

Bold prediction: AC puts on a show up Le Tourmalet and ends all discussion of "the incident." I believe he's exactly where he wanted to be at this point in the race and this is his moment to shine -- as well as silence all the cynics...erm....critics.

 

[cyclestationgiuseppe]

Get up early

Here in CA tomorrows stage comes on at 3:30am PST (just like stage 16) so I wake up at watch and of course just like stage 16

I just hope and pray to the cycling gods that there is some real action and not a bunch of BS like the last stage....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

VDB- please attack
Andy- you 2
Menchov and Gesink do the same

and Levi....well just try and find the right wheel to suck!
and LA can cruise along and waive to his "fans"....

 

[sliceofpy]

AS doesn't think 30sec or a minute will be enough. He's hoping for 2min tomorrow.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/andy-schleck-talks-tough-before-tourmalet-showdown

I don't think AC will give him that opportunity.

 

[RedFury]

AS doesn't think 30sec or a minute will be enough. He's hoping for 2min tomorrow.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/andy-schleck-talks-tough-before-tourmalet-showdown

I don't think AC will give him that opportunity.

Well, what with all "that fire in his belly" and all, you never know.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

""Clearly the stronger"" You must be evidencing this by his total and absolute "clear" domination in all climbs , I supose?. The way i see it, it is not clear at all. Before his mistake in gear's shifting Andy had 31 seconds on Contador given to him by a broken spoke on the cobble stage where cancellara help gave him the ride to the finish. The rest was a 10 seconds he wont on the flat ending section of a middle mountain stage, which he went on to loose a few days later on a steaper climb.. So where is the "cleary the stronger" part? Can you clarify it for me?

Sure

My theory was that IF Andy got an advantage of 45 seconds that would be enough to win the Tour. IF he got an advantage of 45 seconds that would indicate he was "clearly the stronger" ***. I'm not saying he will (indeed I think it's pretty unlikely) or that he has been clearly stronger so far.

*** The only other explanation would be Contador happily letting him get that advantage thinking he would have so much in hand for the TT but surely that would be ridiculous. He'll want to win

 

[icefire]

Though, Vino has to crack sometime.

That is BLASPHEMY!!!! Vino NEVER! listen to me! NEVER cracks! he lets the others win cuz if he wins everything that wouldn't be funny for the public...

Vino doesn't exist. He's Chuck Norris disguised as a cyclist