TDF Stage 17 - Thursday, July 22 2010, Pau - Col du Tourmalet, 174 km

[Winterfold]

Contador will want to win this stage - I can't see him being fully satisfied with the overall without nailing this one in style.

I can't see what Schlecklet can do about it really. If Saxobank go hard he will be on his own at the bottom of the Tourmalet, while Contador will have Vino up the road, and Navarro and Tiralongo with him. Menchov will have Gesink with him.

Tomorrow is going to be very hard day for AS...

 

[Mellow Velo]

Menchov indicated that he won't attack, but he'll instead be looking at Andy and Contador. He'll try to follow them. source

Wow, I'm shocked!

Map of the weather crap.

 

[reubenr]

Like I said, I'm talking specifics here, not hypothetics.

My opinion is that Alberto's main concern is twofold: Put time on Menchov and Sanchez and follow Andy. The later, judging by what happened in previous TTs, will need at least 1:45 to ride for the win.

If Andy loses time to AC tomorrow he won't make the podium.

Menchov is ruthless and Sánchez is riding the Tour of his life.

Which makes me think that Contador will wait until the last 3 or 4 Km, maybe even the last two. This is both as a favor to Andy and to himself, but I am sure he is planning on taking off at some point, just to make a point, and show himself to be the true champion he is. He has had to ride within himself all along. There has been no real reason to ever turn it on much. Some times when you don't turn it on enough, it is hard to turn it on when it is time, but I don't think Alberto will have that kind of problem. I think that this is where Andy is underestimating Alberto and the shock will be quite depressing when it occurs. In reading Andy's comments today, I do think that he has improved going in to the Tour and during the Tour, but Alberto has ridden a very conservative race, so I don't think that Andy has yet seen the real Contador. Andy is desperate, so I expect him to go early but there are a lot of contenders that will try to go with him, too many for him to just drag along. If he exhausts himself, as others have suggested, that might hurt him very badly. I hope that doesn't happen.

For those of you who haven't yet Google Mapped Pau to Col du Tourmalet, France, and utilized the little icon that allows you to get down on the road, I recommend it heartily. It's kind of neat. Weather doesn't look too good for tomorrow. Rain and wind could be a significant factor, which is more likely to work against Schleck than for him. Fortunately, it is uphill.

 

[icefire]

Which makes me think that Contador will wait until the last 3 or 4 Km, maybe even the last two. This is both as a favor to Andy and to himself, but I am sure he is planning on taking off at some point, just to make a point, and show himself to be the true champion he is. He has had to ride within himself all along. There has been no real reason to ever turn it on much. Some times when you don't turn it on enough, it is hard to turn it on when it is time, but I don't think Alberto will have that kind of problem. I think that this is where Andy is underestimating Alberto and the shock will be quite depressing when it occurs. In reading Andy's comments today, I do think that he has improved going in to the Tour and during the Tour, but Alberto has ridden a very conservative race, so I don't think that Andy has yet seen the real Contador. Andy is desperate, so I expect him to go early but there are a lot of contenders that will try to go with him, too many for him to just drag along. If he exhausts himself, as others have suggested, that might hurt him very badly. I hope that doesn't happen.

For those of you who haven't yet Google Mapped Pau to Col du Tourmalet, France, and utilized the little icon that allows you to get down on the road, I recommend it heartily. It's kind of neat. Weather doesn't look too good for tomorrow. Rain and wind could be a significant factor, which is more likely to work against Schleck than for him. Fortunately, it is uphill.

Alberto is the only one who knows if what we've seen so far is the best he can do with his current form. The rest is just opinion. I just hope they don't play tomorrow the same game as in Ax-3 and go all out, no matter who wins or who cracks.

 

[Dedelou]

Here in CA tomorrows stage comes on at 3:30am PST (just like stage 16) so I wake up at watch and of course just like stage 16

I just hope and pray to the cycling gods that there is some real action and not a bunch of BS like the last stage....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

VDB- please attack
Andy- you 2
Menchov and Gesink do the same

and Levi....well just try and find the right wheel to suck!
and LA can cruise along and waive to his "fans"....

your list doesn't include any role for AC.. Did he drop out of the tour in your story? I guess you probably writing the collective wishes of all his opponents. Yeah but.

 

[reubenr]

Alberto is the only one who knows if what we've seen so far is the best he can do with his current form. The rest is just opinion. I just hope they don't play tomorrow the same game as in Ax-3 and go all out, no matter who wins or who cracks.

For that to be true, he would have to be coaching himself. In these times, I believe they can test very well for capacities and record the realities, so if they have a plan, surely it would include this. Of course it is conjecture, but that's what forums are all about, no?

 

[icefire]

For that to be true, he would have to be coaching himself. In these times, I believe they can test very well for capacities and record the realities, so if they have a plan, surely it would include this. Of course it is conjecture, but that's what forums are all about, no?

Right, they can test for capacities, but I doubt Andy knows the numbers of Alberto's tests. I'm not betting on anyone cause I don't know. And I don't care either. I just want to be entertained

 

[AtletiSK]

the weather forecast for tomorrow looks really scary, things can get dangerous out there especially on the descents of Marie-Blanque and Solour
anyway I hope we will see true and fascinating cycling, Alberto-Andy battle will be very equal I believe, in terms of 3rd place finish Menchov looks stronger than Sánchez

 

[Eyeballs Out]

the weather forecast for tomorrow looks really scary, things can get dangerous out there especially on the descents of Marie-Blanque and Solour
anyway I hope we will see true and fascinating cycling, Alberto-Andy battle will be very equal I believe, in terms of 3rd place finish Menchov looks stronger than Sánchez

Hope it's not one of those days where we see nothing but crackly images with the caption "Recorded Earlier" ...

 

[rzombie1988]

AS has his work cut out for him tommorow. He's going to have decisively win this race and get time on AC/Menchov/Sanchez. AS is going to have to have one of his best days tommorow.

 

[salixcycling]

In order to get the 2 minutes and 8 seconds Andy would need to attack contador quite early in the climb of the Tourmalet ... If you don't have much of a margin over your oponents and you leave things to the last moment, you are in critical danger should something happen.

This is a huge part of the problem - deciding to leave it to the absolute last moment to do anything to win.

His attack on stage 15 was worthless even had it succeeded, which was doubtful even before the 'incident'. Only 2 km to the top and not good enough to stay away on the descent; there was no gain to be had by it.

So an early attack is the best chance. Attacking late to gain only 1 minute and losing the yellow jersey by less than 30 seconds to claim a 'moral victory' is not a tactic anyone would go for, so the only reason to attack late is to chance that this will break Contador. Which is a huge risk that would say 'I know he is better, I just have to hope luck is on my side', and wouldn't that be ironic.

 

[The Hitch]

Im going to post this unlikely eventuality so i can brag about having forseen it if it happens.

Dennis Menchov to go be let go and gain 2 minutes 15 seconds + on the tourmalet, catapulting him into the mj ala Sastre 08 when Evans was marking frank.

 

[salixcycling]

Im going to post this unlikely eventuality so i can brag about having forseen it if it happens.

Dennis Menchov to go be let go and gain 2 minutes 15 seconds + on the tourmalet, catapulting him into the mj ala Sastre 08 when Evans was marking frank.

I'll buy you a beer if this prediction comes true

 

[reubenr]

Right, they can test for capacities, but I doubt Andy knows the numbers of Alberto's tests. I'm not betting on anyone cause I don't know. And I don't care either. I just want to be entertained

Me, too! It is rather sad that this tension intervened between them, but I see that as more the grinding of the media in its passion to find or make or capatalize off of a victim of one kind or another, although in listening to the words of Andy, today, he left out a couple of things, at least one thing for sure.
Some how he needs to explain what happened consistently. He misshifted (is that a word?)! So, some one else should pay for his error? This is a Tour that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons. Has anyone figured out what kind of shifters he' using?

 

[Publicus]

I think with Andy having to attack to win the tour he's going to set himself up for a counter attack that will decide the race

This seems quite plausible. Especially since Andy said he went all in on the Madeleine against AC and that netted him exactly zero seconds.

 

[reubenr]

I'll buy you a beer if this prediction comes true

I'll buy you a Fransichkaner!

 

[battery89]

Bold prediction: AC puts on a show up Le Tourmalet and ends all discussion of "the incident." I believe he's exactly where he wanted to be at this point in the race and this is his moment to shine -- as well as silence all the cynics...erm....critics.

+1. AC to stamp his authority. AS to lose a small amount of time, unless AC has a bad day.

 

[blaxland]

This seems quite plausible. Especially since Andy said he went all in on the Madeleine against AC and that netted him exactly zero seconds.

We all know that Contador is on another level compared to A.Schleck and tonights stage will show....Sanchez will finish 30 to 40 seconds in front of D.Menchoz and gain the third podium spot.

 

[jilbiker]

Do we know what the temperature is going to be? When they went up the other side on Tuesday it was megga hot and completely sapped the peloton. That might effect things.

That is huge. Especially for AS. A very hot day, AS will crack...badly. I would advise him to manage very careful if temp is in the 90's and above

 

[bobs nob]

We all know that Contador is on another level compared to A.Schleck and tonights stage will show....Sanchez will finish 30 to 40 seconds in front of D.Menchoz and gain the third podium spot.

There is no bigger AC fan than I am, but he has looked a little unnerved throughout this tour. I don't know what is on his mind, but it isn't helping him. I'm gonna be on the edge of my seat.

 

[Publicus]

That is huge. Especially for AS. A very hot day, AS will crack...badly. I would advise him to manage very careful if temp is in the 90's and above

But it is also bad for him in that he NEEDS to crack AC and the cooler weather makes that much less likely.

 

[cyclestationgiuseppe]

Weather looking grim for tomorrows stage....
better for climbs but scary on the decents....

http://www.accuweather.com/en-us/EUR/FR/FR016/Adast/Hourly24.aspx

Adast is at the last sprint, weather would be worse as they go up the Tourmalet.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

There is no bigger AC fan than I am, but he has looked a little unnerved throughout this tour. I don't know what is on his mind, but it isn't helping him. I'm gonna be on the edge of my seat.

I agree. Contador has been extremely conservative and a bit unsure of himself.
Honestly, I think his failure to drop Braijkovic at the Dauphine affected him psychologically.

 

[teamcresthuffy]

Revenge is adish best served cold

I see Menchov taking the day.

 

[etymology]

my guess regarding how the stage will play out regardless of teams' tacitics before andy and alberto arrive at the base of tourmalet:

around km5 through km8, andy launches a series of attacks to drop alberto. he fails to drop or crack contador. somewhere between km11 and km15, alberto, feeling quite fine, thank you, launches a series of attacks. he succeeds in dropping or cracking andy. now on his own, he rides a high pace to the finish, occassionally digging in to up his already torrid pace...because he can. contador for the win, putting at least a minute into whoever finishes second.

i am guessing this primarily because contador wants a stage win. tourmalet is his last best chance. rain and cool or cold temperatures favor alberto: not because of nasty west descents before the final climb...because he has more meat on his bones than schlecklette and therefore, will not bemuch bothered by predicted cool temperatureas as young andy.

AND...vino is going to be *awesome* regardless of what he does.