TdF TTT - GC winners & losers

[Better Call Saul]

Now that the teams are fairly sorted for July, how do you think the the overall contenders will be affected by the team time trial?

My guess at this stage:
Winners:
Schleck
Gesink
Wiggins (yes I know 'contender')
Radioshack leader/s (as above)

Losers:
Evans
Van den Broeck
Sanchez

How does Contador slot in here? Not a great TTT on paper, but can Saxo pull it off? Would make for some excitement if they lost big time to leopard...
Thoughts??

 

[Frosty]

Not sure how much VDB will lose. When i saw the Lotto team on a thread it seemed like there were a lot of good flatland guys there. They wont beat the top teams but wont lose too much.

Not sure where Basso/Liquigas stand in this. Im guessing they will be better than they might look - lose time to the big teams but not that much>?

Dont think Conty will lose that much time. Garmin will do well although they havent got the top contenders. If you believe that anyone from HTC will be able to contend, well they should do very well.

 

[Clemson Cycling]

Is Tejay supposed to ride the Tour this year?

 

[auscyclefan94]

1. I don't think the differences will be overly significant
2. I don't think Evans or VandenBroeck will be losers.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

meh, losers will probably be like 30 seconds to a minute.

Samu might have reason to worry.
BMC will be mid-table in the TTT. Lotto... we'll see.

 

[taiwan]

Bert has Bert, Larsson and Porte on his team. Should be fine.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Bert has Bert, Larsson and Porte on his team. Should be fine.

Larsson might not be there.


BMC will be inside the top 8. Can anyone tell me how the order will be worked out for the ttt?

The red devils are going to **** the others up!

 

[Moondance]

Barring barring falls or 2008-esque mass catastrophes, i think Sanchez is the only elite GC man who will be at risk of losing more than, say, 45 seconds against another elite contender. Euskaltel might lose 1'30" to a team like HTC, and maybe 1'15" to a team like Shack or Sky, which I rate highest among the team with a legitimate podium contender. Leopard, Sky, Lotto, Rabo, Saxo, Liquigas, BMC and Shack will likely be separated by that 45 seconds or so.

Of course it ain't ideal for Sanchez' quest for bronze, but there you have it.

 

[singlecog]

Have Leopard ever done a TTT in competition yet???

 

[The Hitch]

Gesink and Schleck will have a huge head start. I can see people already euphemising about how 1 minute is nothing, but that will take a huge effort from the likes of Evans and Sanchez on a mountain to make up and thats assuming it works the first time.

Also consider that Samu an Cadel will have to kill themselves in that ttt to limit time, while the younger ones will get towed to the line, saving energy.

I hope those that get the head starts get mechanicals along the way to take that time back.

 

[BYOP88]

Larsson might not be there.


BMC will be inside the top 8. Can anyone tell me how the order will be worked out for the ttt?

The red devils are going to **** the others up!

My guess is team rankings after stage 1, but I could be wrong about that

 

[The Hitch]

Have Leopard ever done a TTT in competition yet???

They are a PT team so theyve done it at pt races like TA PN and Giro of course, though the super team has never done it in comp no.

My guess is team rankings after stage 1, but I could be wrong about that

MJ goes last of course.

I think its team rankings but the last 3 to go are the teams of the top 3 riders from stage 1.

 

[The Hitch]

My guess is team rankings after stage 1, but I could be wrong about that

MJ goes last of course.

I think its team rankings but the last 3 to go are the teams of the top 3 riders from stage 1.

 

[BYOP88]

They are a PT team so theyve done it at pt races like TA PN and Giro of course, though the super team has never done it in comp no.

By super team, I guess you mean Canc pulling at 100% for 90% of the stage with Andy and Frank hanging on for grim death.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Gesink and Schleck will have a huge head start. I can see people already euphemising about how 1 minute is nothing, but that will take a huge effort from the likes of Evans and Sanchez on a mountain to make up and thats assuming it works the first time.

Also consider that Samu an Cadel will have to kill themselves in that ttt to limit time, while the younger ones will get towed to the line, saving energy.

I hope those that get the head starts get mechanicals along the way to take that time back.

Saving energy in a ttt? LOL!

MJ goes last of course.

I think its team rankings but the last 3 to go are the teams of the top 3 riders from stage 1.

I thought it would just be teams classification? It would be good if Cadel and some others finished high enough to get a later start.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I thought it would just be teams classification? It would be good if Cadel and some others finished high enough to get a later start.

Well ASO wants TTT to end with a battle for MJ, and I think they are right.

 

[nvpacchi]

Euskaltel will be fine, they won't go out there and win it, but with Sanchez, Verdugo, and Martinez de Esteban they'll limit losses fine.

Remember a dreadful Euskaltel TTing team lost only 1:13 in a 19km Giro TTT. Their Tour lineup will have better TTers than their Giro lineup (especially if Castroviejo is slotted to start the Tour)

 

[cineteq]

By super team, I guess you mean Canc pulling at 100% for 90% of the stage with Andy and Frank hanging on for grim death.

You read my mind!

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Also consider that Samu an Cadel will have to kill themselves in that ttt to limit time, while the younger ones will get towed to the line, saving energy.

no. That's silly. It doesn't work like that.
Gesink and Schleck (tho history with saxo-now LT- has shown canc taking massive pulls, he is the exception) will put just as much effort as samu in the TTT. An effective TTT requires everyone to work, and no doubt they will want to contribute.

Don't let the strength in teams cloud your judgement.

Gesink and Schleck will have a huge head start. I can see people already euphemising about how 1 minute is nothing, but that will take a huge effort from the likes of Evans and Sanchez on a mountain to make up and thats assuming it works the first time.

I don't think the time gaps will be that big.
Samu is at more risk then evans imo.
I can see eusk losing a minute maybe.
BMC maybe 30 seconds.

AT the giro they lost 1.13 to HTC.
Bu the eusk team I assume will be a little better in that regard?
Then again some of the other teams might be better also.

 

[UpTheRoad]

By super team, I guess you mean Canc pulling at 100% for 90% of the stage with Andy and Frank hanging on for grim death.

There is a precedent for that exact scenario -- 2009.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Lotto didn't do that bad in TTTs in the past. I'm sure they will do very good here.
Don't forget they have Gilbert to go ballistic. That yellow jersey is the only goal he has left for this season.

 

[just some guy]

Be great if it was a winding, cross wind day, then the combo of 9 will win rather than ANDY and Frank being dragged around by Fabian.

I think BMC will be ok

Vino wants a Yellow - better win the 1st stage then, I think their TTT will be a mess.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I don't think Lotto will do bad, Greipel, Sieberg, maybe Hansen, Roelandts, Phille, JVdB, Lang maybe-don't know after the Giro-.. These guys can all ride fast, so a top 10 is possible for sure

 

[dlwssonic]

guys BMC will do ok. a lot of them can do very fine prologues. cadel evans does a very good prologue, bookwalter a prologue specialist, quinziato can do good prologues, morabito does a decent TT, burghardt is a strong rouleur, hincapie does a decent TT. the weak links would be moinard and santamorita. I think they will do pretty well. they werent loose much time to the likes of leopard too.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Be great if it was a winding, cross wind day, then the combo of 9 will win rather than ANDY and Frank being dragged around by Fabian.

I think BMC will be ok

Vino wants a Yellow - better win the 1st stage then, I think their TTT will be a mess.

Who is doing the tour for Astana?