ferryman said:
Remind me, was this your theory that you are defending or have you just jumped on the latest defence of Froome by Master racer and you feel duty bound to keep up the good work by baiting it in his absence? The argument is over, accept it, it has been ripped apart by some of the most respected guys (and girl, sorry LS

) on here. Move on to your next excuse/explanation of the rise of Froome and Sky from the Pheonix that was 2010.
How is it over? LS brought up the question of progression, not potential. Progression and potental are two separate issues. Indeed, I believe LS acknowledges that Froome showed potential in 2008 and may also agree that Froome's 2007 win of stage 5 at Giro delle Regioni (over riders that would go on to do well in GTs) was also indicative of potential.
There are plausible accounts on both sides of this discussion regarding Froome's progression. Apparently, many here believe his progression cannot be explained except by doping. This would be in some tension with the notion that he had potential, but that's beside the point.
Alternatively, one could document Julich's comments about Froome - about the fact that Julich first thought their testing equipment was out of calibration because Froome's #s were so high, of how Julich realized Froome didn't know how to train, in fact overtrained, and also didn't know how to prepare for a race or even race with much tactical sense. Again, this is entirely consistent with his lack of background, his developing outside the typical system a top young junior would in Europe, his racing for a small team with limited budget and capacity to develop riders, etc. I think it is an entirely plausible scenario.
The real problem is this: there are no laws of rider development. There are simply trends. The variance depends on the variance of the developmental paths riders take. Since the sport was so long entrenched in Europe, these paths were quite narrow until recently. It is absurd to apply the progression schedule of a European pro to Froome - in any case, trends always have outliers.