i mean...no, not really? like you said he had a nice performance in Poland two years ago, not sure why that wouldn't count, especially when he was only 22. he was a great domestique at the Vuelta last year and has had a nice season this year where he's done from well to outstanding in every race he's been in. it isn't out of nowhere at all.
He was dropped a long way from the finish as an overall race leader and lost 12 minutes to the best.
Should we count it then or maybe a 26th place finish in a moderately difficult stage race is not really a sign of future GC greatness?