No no, we want them to go through the first week with calamities (in the form of time loss), so they have to go crazy in the mountains.
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You dont want them so far behind that everyone is fine letting someone of them go on a long attack. Because then nobody will follow and they be reeled back or just gain minimum time and be done the next day.
Maaaaaaaarten said:
You dont want them so far behind that everyone is fine letting someone of them go on a long attack. Because then nobody will follow and they be reeled back or just gain minimum time and be done the next day.
I see two reasons why one shouldn't get too excited about Movistar's tdf team next year.
1. What effectively derails the sky train is not an attack by one rider. Sky will have the manpower to bring every move from far out back, as long as the attacker doesn't end up in a big group where many riders ride for him. Said differently, either your name has to be Alberto Contador and you ride the last mountain stage of your career, or you need teammates in front. Since Movistar starts with three leaders, and not one leader with two superb mountain domestiques, who will be the teammate in front who then pulls the rider who attacked? I can neither see Landa working for Quintana nor the other way around. Maybe Valverde will work for a teammate but probably only if he is far behind in the general classification (and I honestly think Valverde is least likely to lose a lot of time in the first week)
This Movistar tactic with 3 leaders could maybe work against a weak rival, but probably not against sky.
2. Movistar isn't exactly known for its aggressive style of racing. Quintana lost the tdf 2015 because he didn't have the balls to attack early and because his team was too keen on protecting the third place of a teammate, something that could absolutely happen again this year. Ofc next year Landa will also join the fun, which could make a difference, but how big will it be? He can ignore team orders but that would only cause solo moves which are doomed against the sky train. If Movistar wants to do damage by riding aggressively they have to do it as a unit and I'm not convinced that will happen.
1. What effectively derails the sky train is not an attack by one rider. Sky will have the manpower to bring every move from far out back, as long as the attacker doesn't end up in a big group where many riders ride for him. Said differently, either your name has to be Alberto Contador and you ride the last mountain stage of your career, or you need teammates in front. Since Movistar starts with three leaders, and not one leader with two superb mountain domestiques, who will be the teammate in front who then pulls the rider who attacked? I can neither see Landa working for Quintana nor the other way around. Maybe Valverde will work for a teammate but probably only if he is far behind in the general classification (and I honestly think Valverde is least likely to lose a lot of time in the first week)
This Movistar tactic with 3 leaders could maybe work against a weak rival, but probably not against sky.
2. Movistar isn't exactly known for its aggressive style of racing. Quintana lost the tdf 2015 because he didn't have the balls to attack early and because his team was too keen on protecting the third place of a teammate, something that could absolutely happen again this year. Ofc next year Landa will also join the fun, which could make a difference, but how big will it be? He can ignore team orders but that would only cause solo moves which are doomed against the sky train. If Movistar wants to do damage by riding aggressively they have to do it as a unit and I'm not convinced that will happen.
At most MS will take 2 mountain domestiques, but I'm not sure they even take that many. Possibly Fernandez or Betancur as the mountain domesque. No way they take Soler. He's raced 1 GT so far and needs more experience. However, I do see Soler going back to la Vuelta. Truthfully I wouldn't be at all surprised if Fernandez and Soler are two of Valverde's domestiques that go with him to the Worlds for the Spanish National Team as they both have started going to the Ardennes with him and other one day races as well.
If they rally do take all 3 of their GC riders I'd fill out the team with: Sütterlin (they need a TT specialist for the TTT), Erviti, Rojas, Betancur, and Fernandez.
If Valverde actually looses time in the first week, this would go back to something he said before the 2016 Tour. That he was going to loose time so he could go spend the day in the break and go stage hunting. If he looses time he's not going to play domestique, he'll go stage hunting. He also said something about sending all 3 is going to be fun. Somehow, I think his idea of fun and everyone else's may be a bit different.
Also Movistar is typically a passive and conservative team. The few times they seem to be more aggressive are typically when Valverde and Contador came up with crazy ideas before the start of stages which team directors had no idea about. With Contador retiring, Valverde has lost his friend and planning partner for those type of ideas. Plus remember his style is a very conservative racing style in general as he typically prefers to rely on his sprinting ability to win stages or take a handful of seconds at the line than to go from any sort of distance. Rather he still has that sprint speed at the end of these stages after his crash or not, we won't know until he starts racing again. He's claiming it's still there.
If they rally do take all 3 of their GC riders I'd fill out the team with: Sütterlin (they need a TT specialist for the TTT), Erviti, Rojas, Betancur, and Fernandez.
If Valverde actually looses time in the first week, this would go back to something he said before the 2016 Tour. That he was going to loose time so he could go spend the day in the break and go stage hunting. If he looses time he's not going to play domestique, he'll go stage hunting. He also said something about sending all 3 is going to be fun. Somehow, I think his idea of fun and everyone else's may be a bit different.
Also Movistar is typically a passive and conservative team. The few times they seem to be more aggressive are typically when Valverde and Contador came up with crazy ideas before the start of stages which team directors had no idea about. With Contador retiring, Valverde has lost his friend and planning partner for those type of ideas. Plus remember his style is a very conservative racing style in general as he typically prefers to rely on his sprinting ability to win stages or take a handful of seconds at the line than to go from any sort of distance. Rather he still has that sprint speed at the end of these stages after his crash or not, we won't know until he starts racing again. He's claiming it's still there.
The 3 leaders is a bad idea. This isn't cycling games. Landa should commit to Giro and ride Tour to support Quintana and go for stages when Quintana doesn't need him. Valverde should support and go for stages and lead the Spanish stage races, adrennes, and Vuelta. Then Landa and Quintana can split up the other week stage races between them.
Unfortunaly Movistar lost Benat or he could have led the Giro. Just going for Amador won't get any where near as good results and this is a full year. I would want to win as much and as big as I could if I was Unzue.
Unfortunaly Movistar lost Benat or he could have led the Giro. Just going for Amador won't get any where near as good results and this is a full year. I would want to win as much and as big as I could if I was Unzue.
Gigs_98 said:
I agree 100%...
i hope they prove us wrong but by the time they men-up it's usually 1 week too late....
movistar must win the tour... without froome and dumoulin, anything less than a win is a complete disaster.
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Agree with you for once. Porte is gonna do a Porte, Uran is gonna suck wheel to ensure 2nd place and the rest of the competition should not worry them... Bar, the shark of Messina in full vodoo mod. With such a line up, they would be the best team on paper along with, even Froomless, Sky.
portugal11 said:
Agree with you for once. Porte is gonna do a Porte, Uran is gonna suck wheel to ensure 2nd place and the rest of the competition should not worry them... Bar, the shark of Messina in full vodoo mod. With such a line up, they would be the best team on paper along with, even Froomless, Sky.
Movistar could end up sweeping the podium. Their 3 GC riders are capable of doing that, they could place only 1 rider on the podium (win or just a podium) or they could blow up. If they blow up I figure Valverde ends up with the highest finish of the 3. This is going under the assumption his knee is fine.
They have announced their line up for the Tour Down Under: Fernandez, Barbero, Soler, Oliveira, Bico, Sütterlin, Castrillo. I'm guessing Barbero for the sprints and Fernandez and Soler for GC. Castrillo is going to get to go to a race right away.
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Yeah thats not too bad. Sutterlin can also mix it up, but neither of them can really do well in the flat sprints at this level. I think Fernandez will go well early, he has something to prove right now after last year. I don't really expect anything from Soler, he should go more calm about things at the moment. I reckon he would like to do well in Catalunya tho, so maybe he is already thinking about that. Still looking forward to which GT he will race.Koronin said:
Re: Re:
Agree with you. Their sprinters really can't compete with the top sprinters on flat sprints, but they'll give it a shot. It should be Fernandez for GC. He definitely has something to prove after last year. Good point that Soler may be building towards Catalunya and this is probably a good test for him to see where he's at. It looks like a solid team they are sending. At this point with GTs and Soler if it was me, I'd send him to the Giro and if he recovers well then to la Vuelta. I don't think he's ready to be part of the Tour team yet.
Valv.Piti said:
Agree with you. Their sprinters really can't compete with the top sprinters on flat sprints, but they'll give it a shot. It should be Fernandez for GC. He definitely has something to prove after last year. Good point that Soler may be building towards Catalunya and this is probably a good test for him to see where he's at. It looks like a solid team they are sending. At this point with GTs and Soler if it was me, I'd send him to the Giro and if he recovers well then to la Vuelta. I don't think he's ready to be part of the Tour team yet.
Yeah and on top of that those climbs really aren't his cup of tea But maybe he will do well, but Fernandez has a good track record here so he will probably be the man until proven otherwise.
I have no clue to what I hope will be Soler's programme this year actually. It could all work, but if the 3 leaders are going to the Tour, I doubt he will be in there. A dual leadership with Amador in the Giro would be fine, if they then don't want a fresh Amador in the Tour for his versatility on cobbles, climbs and time trials.
I have no clue to what I hope will be Soler's programme this year actually. It could all work, but if the 3 leaders are going to the Tour, I doubt he will be in there. A dual leadership with Amador in the Giro would be fine, if they then don't want a fresh Amador in the Tour for his versatility on cobbles, climbs and time trials.
Fernandez said (I think it was on twitter) that he was going to the TDU about a week or two ago and had been told he was going to be race leader. I expect that to be correct. Maybe send Soler to both learn and to be the back up just in case Fernandez has any issues.
Yeah, they could send Soler as co leader to the Giro with Amador. I'd be surprised if Amador isn't at the Giro. He seems to really like that race.
Yeah, they could send Soler as co leader to the Giro with Amador. I'd be surprised if Amador isn't at the Giro. He seems to really like that race.
Amador already confirmed (a couple of weeks ago) that he'll ride the Giro but in that interview said that he'll go as support for one leader.
He also said that he'll lead the team at Strade Bianche and Ronde.
He also said that he'll lead the team at Strade Bianche and Ronde.
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No Valverde in Strade Bianche? He is not riding PN or TA so he should be in SB
Nirvana said:
No Valverde in Strade Bianche? He is not riding PN or TA so he should be in SB
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He may very well end up at Strade Bianche. Even when he has his spring calendar filled out it doesn't mean much as he changes things last minute anyway. So it's very possible he goes to Strade Bianche. Two years ago he wasn't supposed to race Andalucia (Laboto was race leader for that race) about a week before the race he added it to his calendar and went as co race leader to it.
Asero831 said:
He may very well end up at Strade Bianche. Even when he has his spring calendar filled out it doesn't mean much as he changes things last minute anyway. So it's very possible he goes to Strade Bianche. Two years ago he wasn't supposed to race Andalucia (Laboto was race leader for that race) about a week before the race he added it to his calendar and went as co race leader to it.
From la Vuelta presentation it sounds like Movistar has confirmed that Valverde and Landa are going to La Vuelta. I think we already knew Valverde was going, but not as sure about Landa. They did not confirm Quintana, thus making it sound like it's possible Quintana is only doing the Tour this year as far as GTs go.
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In 3 out of the last 4 editions, they have either sent Quintana or Valverde and the year they didn't, Amador got 4th. That means 1st, 4th, 3rd and 2nd, in that order, the last four Giri.......yaco said:
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And this year they have 3 genuine GC contenders and not one is riding the Giro.
Valv.Piti said:
And this year they have 3 genuine GC contenders and not one is riding the Giro.
the cobbled stage will be crucial for movistar. They have 5 riders to protect 3 riders and some of them will be climbers domestiques. I smell chaos in that team
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I presume they will be all in to protect Quintana. Valverde should probably be able to handle himself. Which just leaves Landa - who could lose out big I fear.portugal11 said:
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Valverde can handle himself well on the cobbles. He's done it before. He's even raced some of the cobbled semi classics in the past and keep promising he's going to race Flanders eventually (although again unlikely this year due to two other races he's planning on races). Heck last year even said he might try Paris-Roubiax at some point. So I don't expect the team is worried about him on the cobbles. That then leaves really 2 domestiques to protect Landa and Quintana. I'm guessing they bring 3 mountain domestiques with them. For those two I'd actually guess they'll be the team's two time trialists Suttlerin and Oliveria. Also remember this is a team that doesn't typically do well in the cobbled races as it is so they really don't have many riders on the entire team even capable of protecting anyone over the cobbles to begin with.
As for the Giro, if they don't send any of their top GC riders, then they will likely send Amador as race leader and most likely Betancur along with a group of youngsters with a bunch of potential. WIthout sending one of their top GC riders I expect they send Soler to get his 2nd GT under his belt before needing him very likely in la Vuelta to actual have a good idea what he's doing in a Grand Tour.
portugal11 said:
Valverde can handle himself well on the cobbles. He's done it before. He's even raced some of the cobbled semi classics in the past and keep promising he's going to race Flanders eventually (although again unlikely this year due to two other races he's planning on races). Heck last year even said he might try Paris-Roubiax at some point. So I don't expect the team is worried about him on the cobbles. That then leaves really 2 domestiques to protect Landa and Quintana. I'm guessing they bring 3 mountain domestiques with them. For those two I'd actually guess they'll be the team's two time trialists Suttlerin and Oliveria. Also remember this is a team that doesn't typically do well in the cobbled races as it is so they really don't have many riders on the entire team even capable of protecting anyone over the cobbles to begin with.
As for the Giro, if they don't send any of their top GC riders, then they will likely send Amador as race leader and most likely Betancur along with a group of youngsters with a bunch of potential. WIthout sending one of their top GC riders I expect they send Soler to get his 2nd GT under his belt before needing him very likely in la Vuelta to actual have a good idea what he's doing in a Grand Tour.
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