The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[Pentacycle]

Last year was a huge disaster, and I could only barely turn profit. Romain Feillu had intestinal problems and had his appendix removed during the season, De Gendt was struggling all year, Rujano and Vorobyev both disappeared after April, Chaves was out all year and Taaramae turned out to be asthmatic. This list could go on and on, but I prefer to talk about 2014.

My team has some obvious picks like Tommeke, Lulu, Phinney, Ryder, Gerdemann and JVDB. But some more obscure picks as well. To start off, the Unique Picks on my team:

BENOOT Tiesj(30): Picked him on the Youth game as well, I have faith in him despite his mononucleosis last year. He's been training for a while now and I'm hoping on a 100+ season from him, riding the U23 scene in Belgium, l'Avenir and the U23 Worlds.

SEPULVEDA Eduardo(65): Had him on my team last year, but he wasn't very consistent yet. I believe he can get a couple of good GC's with his time trial capabilities, and his big engine and track speed should make him a contender for 1.1 races too. And finishing 65th in the Dauphiné only underlines his potential, but that might just be my view.

WIPPERT Wouter(101): A rider with a huge turn of speed, but he hasn't got that many chances so far. Coming back from a horrible season during his stage period at Lotto in 2012, he still managed a consistent season, highlighted with 4th in both Halle-Ingooigem and the Food Valley Classic. If he can double and improve his placings from last season he can get a couple of hundreds easily.

Other rare picks include:

11x WELLENS Tim(132): Lots of bad luck last year. He had to quit from the TDU while being in position to contend for a top 5 finish, and he had to miss the Giro due to a knee injury. But he fought back, and his Dauphiné was amazing. He attacked all the time, probably being the most aggressive rider in the race IIRC. He also rode well in Tour de Wallonie and the Canadian races. This guy can have his breakout next year, and I have faith in him scoring 500+ points next year.

6x ZILIOLI Gianfranco(177): I doubt anybody missed his results from his Androni stage period, but apparantly his cost was too high to pick him. Not for me, he can easily double his score, as he's got a huge engine that can only improve. The Italian season, centered around the Giro, will suit him to perfection.

5x SERRY Pieter(261): Not very cheap, but if he can get a co-leadership role in the Ardennes he's worth the pick. A 7th in Il Lombardia isn't easy to get, and he's still improving on that, having only ridden his first GT in 2013.

2x BARDET Romain(703): To some he might look maxed out, But after the Tour his engine has only become bigger. And if Betancur stays fat, Romain is the undisputed leader in the Ardennes and preparatory stage races, where he hasn't reached his full potential yet. Next year could see him reach 1500 points.

2x ROELANDTS Jurgen(573): He had a good spring with his 3rd in the Ronde, but in the remainder of his season he was hampered by an injury sustained from a crash in the ZLM Tour. He can still improve IMO and get his score to 1000+ if luck is finally on his side.

2x EIKING Odd Christian(4): Heard good things about him. Finshed in the chasing group in the U23 Worlds without a real precedent, so I expect great things from him if he races a full season.

2x THEUNS Edward(25): A young and promising classics rider, with little experience in higher level races. I expect him to get at least 100 points at Topsport. He can score in races with hills and small time trials, making him perfect for races like West-Vlaanderen, Tour of Belgium, Wallonie and others.

 

[greenedge]

Gerrans and Von Hoff ensure my day was good, both in terms of watching and CQ

I'm surprised no one picked Sergio Henao (I chose Contador over him, but after soul searching. I thought he could be a risky pick, as he failed in the Vuelta last year but he has ridden 4 GT's in two years, so he could possibly have emerged even stronger), he could win at the Ardennes and if he gets a leadership role at the Vuelta could top 5.

Good pick with Wippert @Pentacycle: I considered him, especially with a new team, but he was just a bit too expensive for me/ I had Ewan and Zabel in that same price range. Good luck with him this year.

 

[Pentacycle]

VAN DER HAAR Lars - This guy was an amazing cyclo-crosser and now he signed with Argos development team. If he will concentrate on road a little more he should score over 100 points easily.

He still is mainly a CX rider The team will support him during the winter as well, and his road program is only as a warm-up for the 'cross season. I agree he could score some points though, it looks like he has great potential as a puncher or uphill sprinter.

 

[greenedge]

Actually i've just looked at all the teams and if we had an update i would move up to 2nd, beaten only by the all Ozzie team from Wizard of Oz -based on my current =4th position. What makes it more annoying is the fact i probably can't overtake him after the TDU either- except if Goss wins a lot of stages and one of my international riders go well and Evans/ Porte fail- and then at San Luis/ Qatar i won't have stand out names who could grab the win for me.

@trotters aotearoa: had Roulston but no Aussie riders who scored points in the RR.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I hoped at least Dennis would give me some early points with the aussie nationals. Did he DNF or did he not participate in the RR? Also, I hope he isn't injured from his crash during the TT. I need him for TDU!

Ah well, Voeckler will make everything right for me when he wins TDU.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Gerrans will be in profit before he even turns a pedal in Europe.

 

[Panda Claws]

My line-up for the Tour Down Under

FENN Andrew
GUARNIERI Jacopo

Well, that is disappointing.

Provisional line-up for San Luis

KESSIAKOFF Fredrik
PHINNEY Taylor
MOSER Moreno
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen
VANENDERT Jelle
BOONEN Tom
BRAMBILLA Gianluca
SELLA Emanuele

 

[NairoQ]

TDU (2):
Goss
Danny Van Poppel

San Luis (13!):
Betancur
Modolo
Nizzolo
Cunego
Atapuma
Moser
Van Den Broeck
Boonen
Duarte
Vanendert
Kessiakoff
Clarke
Haedo

 

[HelgeBlendet]

La Tropicale Amissa Bongo

GERDEMANN Linus

Is the race mostly flat again? If so, he won't score. But he'll get his chances over the season and as a 0-point rider there's no real pressure.

Tour de San Luis

MOSER Moreno
ANACONA Winner Anrew
VANENDERT Jelle
QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney
BOONEN Tom
YATES Adam

Really looking forward to this one. Will be intresting to see if and what Anacona, Quintana and Yates will do. Don't expect anything from Vanendert and Moser. Boonen will most likely support Cav...

Tour Down Under

ZABEL Rick
DENNIS Rohan
TRENTIN Matteo
GOSS Matthew Harley

Here's hope Goss will show himself. Maybe Dennis for a Top10 overall? Will Zabel be the main sprinter for BMC? Not sure about Trentin here...

 

[mc_mountain]

Gerrans will be in profit before he even turns a pedal in Europe.

can't see that he'll win both TDU and HST but yeah could be pretty close...

ok the uncommon picks on my team

Senechal (126 points, 3 teams) - strong, talented rider - should get some good chances on Cofidis in tough one day races, and maybe even stage races with short prologue and/or tough but not too hilly queen stages. My hope is he'll do better than Mohoric at the same price and Alaphilippe in the same mold - both of whom will be lower down the pecking order at Cannondale and OPQS). Will ride at La Tropicale Amissa Bongo.

Watson - (6 points, 11 teams) - been following him since he punctured in the finale of one of the big u23 races 2 years ago, was on my youth team last year (and was a flop). Shouldnt be too hard from him to get 50-60 profit just from finishing WT races and the odd top 15 in a 1.1. In addition 1 or 2 really decent results in the kind of races I outlined for Senechal and he'll be a great pick. Last year he won the Herald Sun Tour for no CQ points and didnt get many chances with his italian amateur team or the national team. Will ride at Tour Down Under.

Talansky - (755 points, 12 teams). One of the rare riders that would have been a decent pick in every year in the game's history (cost year 1 = 76 > 229 > 683 > 755). wanted him the first year but couldn't fit him in, very pleased to have him in year two. Could easily have been at about 1000 points for 2013 if not for illness at Romandie, so I'm hoping that's the minimum full race season score for him in 2014. Could podium 2 or 3 one week WT races, plus top 10 at the Tour, might take on the Vuelta too, or do well in the Canadian WT races in support of Ryder - to be edging in on 1500 points.

Zordan - (91 points, 15 teams). Missed from my initial analysis - but what Geraint Too Fast says further down the thread.

Edmondson - (60 points, 17 teams). decent year one at pro level, enough hints he can do well in hilly stages, short tours and one day races.

Markus - (209 points, 17 teams). really wanted him in the team last year, and would have been if not to rearrange the team without Anacona after that injury came to light. Shown he has the speed and strength to complete with the top sprinters and now with a team known for taking teams to SSR and beating up on the opposition. Would have done better in 2013 if not for a broken wrist. Last time I picked a rider the year after a broken scaphoid he scored a pretty decent return.

Next most uncommon riders are Stuyven (108, 22) and Adam Yates (55, 24), both of whom should go well.

riders not in my team...

Missed

Colli
Bisolti
Riders yet to be determinted

Not given enough consideration/omitted on potentially flawed reasoning

Gerrans
Coppel
Duarte
Kennaugh

Popular Riders not selected

Phinney - should do well, but could easily be little or no improvement points wise.
Dombrowski - even though I had him at ~200 last year can't see him getting more than 250 this time round
Vanendert - dont really rate him, suspicious his first good year was the same as Gilbert's epic year, may need to be moved to the section above
Mohoric - will a be a tough year (by many accounts he was having a tough year last year before the World Champs) on a Cannondale team with a lot of riders that'll be stronger/favoured by the team. I have Senechal at the same price.
Villella - could easily do very well, but expensive.

Riders I'd have loved to find a place for

Reza
Wellens
Dennis
Latour
Swift
Bennett, Sam

Relative failures from my team last year that could have easily returned

Evans
Millar
Howes
Boswell
Cattaneo
Bobridge

 

[jsem94]

More detailed description of my picks:

CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto(1228) - If he gets back on track, could score 2000+ easily. But he has to stick to his plan and race two GTs. If he gets injured, or caught up in some mess, I can't even break the top 30.

GILBERT Philippe(949) - Even under a contract year, has the capacity to hit 2000+, and I'm hoping he ends up in the 1500 range. Losing the rainbow jersey might have been the best thing that has happened to him, and he can ride pretty much pressure free now.

BOASSON HAGEN Edvald(743) - Looking at the graph, he's a no brainer. A normal season and he doubles his score.

VOECKLER Thomas(632) - He won a few races in the autumn which made me not want to pick him, he would've been a no brainer otherwise. Still very possible for 1200+, especially if he keeps working on that TT ability that won him Tour du Poitou-Charentes.

PHINNEY Taylor(475) - Has a lot of potential to improve into a real star. Or just a 600-900 point rider. I'll take either one. Preferably the star option.

MOSER Moreno(353) - No-brainer. An almost obvious pick. After his freshman year in the peloton scoring 1000+, going a bit backwards is not a surprise. He's going to step forward now as a rider though I think, and have an upwards trend over the coming years.

VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen(341) - No-brainer. Crashed out of the Tour, missing out on a lot of points. Should at least double barring another injury.

MARCATO Marco(327) - Has been on a downward spiral for a while now, but is a better rider. Capable of 600-1000 easily if he gets enough chances. He's not going to win the biggest classics, but the semi-classics could be a goldmine for points gathering.

HESJEDAL Ryder(294) - I only hope that he won't start taking it easy clinic wise because of the mess he's been caught in and still has the desire for big wins.

CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan(291) - Movistar TTer. Should be at 500-600 points annually with his capability. Easily.

BENNATI Daniele(271) - He never became a star sprinter like Cav, but he is one of those second-tier sprinters. Didn't get to show it last season, he was too busy escorting Contador around.

GOSS Matthew(217) - Come on. Insanely cheap for a guy who could be getting 1000 points easily. Even a few good sprint wins puts him into profit almost instantly.

YATES Simon(164) - I hope he gets his chances, and I was happy he didn't pick Sky for his freshman year. Has a LOT of talent and potential. Could be this year's Moser. I'm willing to take that risk.

COPPEL Jérôme(163) - Is a much better rider than this. Should be scoring 400+ points, gathering a lot of the various French 1.1 races among others.

DE GENDT Thomas(153) - 3rd in the Giro in 2012, high TT capacity. Just going by the graph too, he should at least be getting 300 points.

TAARAMÄE Rein(143) - Well. Do I really have to explain myself? Hopefully he's matured a bit for this upcoming season.

BOONEN Tom(139) - The most obvious pick of the year. He's back in full force.

SCHLECK Andy(99) - Another obvious pick. Could score 140 or 1400, but still worth it.

VANENDERT Jelle(96) - Had a horrendous season, and could be back for some action this year at the Ardennes.

MONDORY Lloyd(83) - 83 after many consistent seasons of 300+. Should be going back near that benchmark at least.

VRECER Robert(65) - Euskaltel didn't work for him. Going back to Vorarlberg might give him some opportunities in 2.2 and the occasional 2.1 race again. Anything between 100-400 is possible.

COBO ACEBO Juan Jose(61) - Tour of Turkey. Enough said.

KESSIAKOFF Fredrik(42) - No brainer. Had a horrendous season of sickness and injury, will be back this year though.

ENGOULVENT Jimmy(41) - Way too cheap to overlook. Just winning the usual prologue of Tour of Luxembourg will get him close to going into profit.

DI GREGORIO Rémy(35) - Cleared of suspension and coming back. Won Tour of Bulgaria last year as an amateur, still has it in him.

NUYENS Nick(30) - I can't pass up this dirt cheap former RVV winner.

BOBRIDGE Jack(27) - Has had it pretty bad with illness, but he's already into profit after the Nationals. Brace yourselves.

OLIVIER Daan(17) - One of those Rabo Development Team riders who could do very very well. Had a much more massive score last year but stayed on the development team and got this lousy score. He's now going professional and will be hungry for some high placings.

GERDEMANN Linus(0) - I can't believe he didn't even have a contract last year. MTN is no WT, but still a no-brainer.

CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban(0) - Back form injury. In WT now. Could score anything between 0-700.

BISOLTI Alessandro(0) - This years Mauro Finetto perhaps?

BELTRAN SUAREZ Eduard Alexander(0) - Another Colombian. He's heading into the Italian scene. We'll see what happens.

AUGUSTYN John-Lee(0) - He's back. Probably not gonna score a lot, but 100+ points is very likely.


Aaaannndd.. riders I did not choose:
Uran - I'm sorry. He might score 1000, but that is only a what, 33% increase? I don't see him doubling his score.
Cunego - Had to pass. He's involved in a mess, and I am not willing to risk it, even though I know he can treble his score. If he does, I'm screwed.
Ballan - 0 point rider, but caught up even further in the same mess. There are riders with no baggage at the same value.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I like this posts explaining the reasoning for uncommon picks. Let's give it a try myself.

Thomas Voeckler (632 points, 13 picks) If he finds anything of his shape of last two years, he will certainly double. He still had some performances last year to show that he can ride on a good level. His lack of points was mostly due to a nasty crash in AGR. Also, since Europcar is a WT team now, I think he'll have more high profile races to hunt for some good results.

GALLOPIN Tony (542 points, 7 picks) Lotto brought him in as a captain, so he'll be (co)leading every single one day race he enters. I guess Lotto also let's their riders go for stage hunting, so that's an area where he can earn points as well. Bit of a risky pick, but he has shown a lot of talent, if he steps up as a leader of Lotto, I think he has it in him to double his points.

BENNATI Daniele (271, 11 picks) IIRC, he had some trouble with ilness or injury last spring and after that he was mostly working as a road captain. He's not that old yet. He should still get some nice results and be a decent pick, I think.

SERPA PEREZ Jose Rodolfo (163 points, 3 picks) Bit of a filler I admit. But his ability should definitely be good enough to be a decent pick. Hoping he gets his chance in something like Tour de San Luis though.

WACKERMANN Luca (28 points, 7 picks) Don't know what he was doing last year, but I still think he has some talent because of his fifth place in Tre Valli Varesine as a stagair with Lampre. He's only 28 points, so he doesn't even have to do too much to be a decent pick.

 

[the sceptic]

Bobridge already in profit and Porte off to a good start as well. Nice.

 

[mc_mountain]

Commonality of teams...

Taking a hit and miss approach the most matches I can find is 22.

Cykeltyven

CraZyCaLL
Wallenquist

Wallenquist

Cykeltyven

CraZyCaLL

Cykeltyven

The Hitch

Netserk
RiaRoadTrip

Netserk

The Hitch

RiaRoadTrip

The Hitch

If you want to know how many riders you have in common with other teams - cut and paste your team and insert it into Column E of 2014 results tab (over the riders already inserted by skidmark) and put 100 into Column I for all your riders. Go to rankings and re order the rankings - you should be at the top with 3300 (assuming you have 33 riders). teams directly below in the order are the most common with you (divide the score by 100 for number of riders matched). Please post if you find any other 22 matches or if I've missed any higher ones.

 

[Panda Claws]

I like the little statistics you are posting.

 

[mc_mountain]

I like the little statistics you are posting.

Cool, nothing so far that we havent had in one form or another from various posters in previous years and all stuff I couldnt have generated without Hugo's spreadsheet as a platform. but hopefully people will find it useful to see how popular their riders are at a glance in the spreadsheet. I'm also really excited about seeing a group of different people doing the updates. Monthly stats too should be a nice addition.

Follow the youth game for more innovations.

 

[ItalianGigolo]

My Line-up from TDU(3):

Simon Gerrans - Hope he continue his form from the Nationals and wins it for Orica.
STANNARD Ian - I don't really know what to expect from him. I hope he can improve his 5 points scored in TDU last year.
VAN POPPEL Danny - He should get some top 10-top 5. I hope he can do even better.

Line-up for San Luis(9):

KESSIAKOFF Fredrik - will probably work for Nibali
PHINNEY Taylor - should score in the TT and maybe at sprints
MOSER Moreno - he and Sagan together are always fun to watch.
ANACONA Winner - might be Lampre GC man(not sure about Cunego form)
POZZATO Filippo - really curious about his form
QUINTANA Nairo Alexander and his brother - Nairo is one of the favourites for the GC. Hope he wins it. Curious about his brother abilities.
BOONEN Tom -will probably help Cav
KRUOPIS Aidis - Should get some good points in the sprints
HAEDO Juan Jose - Hope he can get some top5-top10.

 

[skidmark]

Was sick in spring, then crashed hard at the Tour. Should be much better this year.

Some first names would be nice with names like Schleck, van Poppel or Bennett. Not necessary for Vanendert.

Sorry Fauniera, just going off the top of my head which has memorized these guys for weeks. Definitely Andy, Danny van poppel and Sam Bennett.

I knew Coppel crashed at the tour (didn't know he was sick in spring) but he just did SO many races and was unspectacular in them all, so it got me worried.

 

[skidmark]

WIPPERT Wouter(101): A rider with a huge turn of speed, but he hasn't got that many chances so far. Coming back from a horrible season during his stage period at Lotto in 2012, he still managed a consistent season, highlighted with 4th in both Halle-Ingooigem and the Food Valley Classic. If he can double and improve his placings from last season he can get a couple of hundreds easily.

Wow, I can't believe Wippert is a unique pick. I only shuffled him out with the last handful of cuts. In the end I thought his ceiling wasn't high enough, I wanted to spend 100 points on someone who could get at least 300, and I wasn't sure if he could. But he's a safe bet for 200, I'd say.

 

[fauniera]

You might like this.

 

[coinneach]

I've just realised that my team is incredibly light on riders for the cobbles. I've only got Boonen (who everybody else has anyway) and uh, EBH...

You think you've got problems?

I missed Boonen but have got Jonathon Tiernan Locke

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

can't see that he'll win both TDU and HST but yeah could be pretty close...

It's January. I'm allowed to get carried away.


My uncommon riders;

ZORDAN Andrea (15 picks) - He beat Villella on a regular basis last year so I'm a bit surprised that he isn't more popular. He's a ready-made replacement for Felline so should do quite well with Androni (as long as Belletti doesn't climb too well).

BELTRAN SUAREZ Eduard Alexander (10 picks) - After Rovny last year, I had to pick another Ceramica Flaminia rider and Beltran was the obvious choice. I'm not expecting him to have the same impact as Rovny though.

VRECER Robert (8 picks) - He knows how to score points at continental level. Should be fun to follow.

BISOLTI Alessandro (6 picks) - Could be the best climber at Vini Nippo. Hopefully he'll do some racing in Asia.

JARAMILLO DIEZ Daniel Alexander (4 picks) - Jamis have an Acevedo shaped hole to fill and I think Jaramillo can fill it.

MANSILLA ALMONACID Luis Miguel (3 picks) - I wanted a rider from PinoRoad. Not going to pretend I know much about him, but from his past results he could be a Jack of all trades, master of none. I thought he was a guaranteed to be unique pick.

NORRIS Lachlan (3 picks) - I wanted a rider from Drapac and he was cheap + he won Tour of Tasmania in 2012 so he must be a huge talent.

KRITSKIY Timofey (2 picks) - Picked him on the off chance that he can rediscover the ability he had when he broke through. Rusvelo could be a good environment for him.

PLIUSCHIN Alexandre (2 picks) - I wanted a rider from Skydive Dubai. Guaranteed to break even as long as he doesn't miss the Moldovan National Championships again this year.

BOLIVAR HERNANDEZ Isaac (2 picks) - My 3rd Colombian 0-pointer (but not the obvious one). I'm not sure how he'll get on, but he's riding for a Pro-Conti team who are quite short on GC options so he should get plenty of chances.

EIBEGGER Markus (1 pick) - Synergy Baku will have a very nice calendar for a continental team and Eibegger should be one of their best riders. I'm quietly confident about him.

HAIG Jack (1 pick) - Won the Tour of Tasmania in 2013 ... but seriously, he is talented. He'll be doing some mountain biking for the Commonwealth Games this year, but he will still have chances to score CQ points in early/late season, starting with the TDU. I'm delighted that he's a unique pick.

 

[mc_mountain]

It's January. I'm allowed to get carried away.

of course, I am already half expecting Senechal to be close to breaking even before he gets to Europe too.

My uncommon riders;

ZORDAN Andrea (15 picks) - He beat Villella on a regular basis last year so I'm a bit surprised that he isn't more popular. He's a ready-made replacement for Felline so should do quite well with Androni (as long as Belletti doesn't climb too well).
<snip>

yeah me too, so much so that I didnt realise he was one of my uncommon riders, but pretty much agree on your analysis.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Since everyone is doing this

CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto, 1228 points, 44 picks
I am just hoping last year was a bad year for him and that he'll bounce back this year. I am not sure he'll be a good pick this year but I can't not pick him for such a low cost. I think he should be able to score at least 1800 points as he's scheduled to race La Vuelta.

URAN URAN Rigoberto, 742 points, 73 picks
It was him or EBH and since Uran will be OPQS's leader in the stage races I picked him but it was a close call. I hope he'll score 1250 points or more.

STYBAR Zdenek, 645 points, 35 picks
I think he'll do better in the classics this year, he would've podiumed, perhaps even won Paris-Roubaix last year if not for the supporter taking him out. He is a bit of a fangirl pick though but I am certain he will improve this year and I'm hoping for 1000 points.

SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon, 380 points, 48 picks
At first I wasn't sure if I'd pick him even after he signed with Caja Rural but he will be the undisputed leader in many races and I don't want to risk losing out on 1000 points. I think he'll score at least 700 points.

ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin, 362 points, 19 picks
I must say I am quite surprised only 18 others picked him. He's a great climber who could potentially score loads of points. I am hoping for 600 points.

MOSER Moreno, 353 points, 105 picks
A must-have, really. He may have been a bit lucky last year but he still has the potential to score many points. I predict 750 points for him.

MARCATO Marco, 327 points, 13 picks
In his last 5 seasons he scored more than this year each time. He is not very old yet, so I've got hope he'll score a lot of points with his new team. I think 700 points is definitely possible considering his average score for 2010-2012 is over 900.

JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt, 302 points, 9 picks
A late addition who I hadn't really considered before. I'm not sure about him at all but I can hope. It can go both ways, but I'm hoping for 500 points.

AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey, 274 points, 4 picks
I wanted to pick him last year but didn't in the end, and I almost started regretting it when I saw him in the classics, but then he broke his collarbone. He showed he can climb, TT and also did well in the classics so I couldn't leave him out again for even less points than last year. It depends on how many chances he gets to ride for himself but I'm gonna predict 400-500 points for him.

ARU Fabio, 262 points, 86 picks
I think Aru was great last year but it didn't really show in his points. I am hoping for a Majka-like season, he cost 260 points and scored 773 in 2013. 600 points for Aru is definitely possible I believe.

VILLELLA Davide, 219 points, 40 picks
219 points is expensive for a neo-pro, but Villella could score really well. I actually decided I'd pick him when he'd scored just 40-something points I think he could score over 400 points if all goes well.

GOSS Matthew, 217 points, 106 picks
Couldn't leave him out in case he'd start scoring big again, I don't expect it though, I am thinking around 400 points for Goss.

RABOTTINI Matteo, 189 points, 3 picks
My most unique pick. He's a late addition but I think he could do well. 300 points I think.

ROSA Diego, 181 points, 12 picks
I am really curious to see how he'll do this year, it'll be very interesting to follow him. I'm going to predict around 250 points for him.

CRADDOCK Lawson, 175 points, 17 picks
Last year I underestimated Argos's potential to develop talented climbers when I left out Barguil. I don't want to make the same mistake this year I think he'll be able to score a decent amount of points, somewhere in the 300-400 points range.

YATES Simon, 164 points, 51 picks
A big talent, I hope it will translate into points. I think he could score well but I'm not sure. I am hoping for at least 300 points.

MORTON Lachlan, 159 points, 27 picks
He did well in some American stage races last year, I hope he can do the same in Europe this year. I think 350 points is possible.

BOONEN Tom, 139 points, 138 picks
Tom Boonen for 139 points? A no-brainer, at least 1000 points for him.

BOARO Manuele, 137 points, 4 picks
This is the 3rd year in a row he's in my team, in 2012 he was a good pick, last year not so much but I'm confident he'll at least equal his 2012 score, so over 300 points. Plus, I like him.

WELLENS Tim, 132 points, 11 picks
I seriously considered him last year and in hindsight it's a good thing I didn't pick him. He's another late addition and I'm looking forward to seeing how he performs this year. I think 200 points is possible for him.

MOHORIC Matej, 126 points, 44 picks
He may be a bit too young to step up to WT level but I don't want to miss out in case he does really well. I am hoping for him to double his points.

EWAN Caleb, 110 points, 58 picks
With some "big" races on his schedule he should be able to score quite a few points on top of the points he'll score in U23 races. As I said before I think he'll be able to score 300-400 points.

STUYVEN Jasper, 108 points, 22 picks
I think he'll score a good number of points this year, nothing amazing but enough to make him a solid pick, 250-350 or something like that.

SCHLECK Andy, 99 points, 127 picks
If he underperforms again this year I'm done with him, but I think he'll do okay this year, he won't be as good as before 2012 but I think he'll score at least 400 points.

DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd, 97 points, 76 picks
He didn't live up to my expectations last year but he deserves another chance especially because he is one of the few Sky riders I actually like. 250 points is doable I think.

KENNAUGH Peter, 93 points, 40 picks
I think he'll be Team Sky's next GC contender, at least 400 points for him.

ZORDAN Andrea, 91 points, 15 picks
Fermi suggested him, if Zordan fails I will blame him But I think he'll do well, 200 points at least.

HEPBURN Michael, 71 points, 17 picks
He was in my team last year but he didn't perform as I expected him to. This year I have high hopes for him again. The season has started well for him, I hope he will continue to win. I predict 300 points for him.

SÜTTERLIN Jasha, 43 points, 14 picks
I have to say I don't know much about him but he seems talented to me, looking at his results. If he can double his points I'm happy.

KESSIAKOFF Fredrik, 42 points, 90 picks
Another must-have. I'm not sure he'll reach his 2012 level but he should at least reach 150 points which is a great return whichever way you look at it.

ANACONA GOMEZ Winner Andrew, 20 points, 51 picks
He was injured last year, 300% return is guaranteed but I think he could even score around 300 points.

CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban, 0 points, 89 picks
Must-have, at least 250 points for him but I'm hoping for him.

GERDEMANN Linus, 0 points, 89 picks
Another must-have, I think he can score over 200 points.

Riders I seriously considered:
Zilioli, Howson, Poels, Bennati, Jungels, Navardauskas, Coppel

Fail of the day:
Realizing I didn't pick Edmondson even though I was sure I did

 

[skidmark]

Commonality of teams...

If you want to know how many riders you have in common with other teams - cut and paste your team and insert it into Column E of 2014 results tab (over the riders already inserted by skidmark) and put 100 into Column I for all your riders. Go to rankings and re order the rankings - you should be at the top with 3300 (assuming you have 33 riders). teams directly below in the order are the most common with you (divide the score by 100 for number of riders matched). Please post if you find any other 22 matches or if I've missed any higher ones.

That's genius, MC. Awesome stuff.

My most common is 20, with 18-Valve. Then:

19 - Froome19 (appropriately enough), Roderick

18 - Hugo Koblet, Cykeltyven, HelgeBlendet

For my close contemporaries on the cumulative rankings, I have 17 in common with the Hitch and 16 with mc_mountain.

My least common is Dim, with two riders (Rohan Dennis and Danny van Poppel, of all choices).