The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

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I see that quite a few have picked Kreuziger and Terpstra. I think Kreuziger is done at this point and will mostly function as road captain. Nieve joining doesn't help him either. Terpstra could be a fine pick, and it'll be interesting to see what role he'll have with Tommeke gone, but on the balance I think he'll score somewhat the same as last year.
 
Re: Re:

MADRAZO said:
Armchair cyclist said:
So, who are going to be the most popular picks?

Nizzolo, Cavendish, Moser, Craddock, Konig, Intxausti seem to me the most obvious: who else might be on 50% + of teams
Coquard, Brambilla and Esteban Chaves must have been 100% sure on almost all teams, and I think M. A. Lopez, Halvorsen, Enger, Kangert and Danny Van Poppel must also be very high in the popularity besides those mentioned.
I has Coquard in mind but made a mistake i not including him, probably though rushing my selection
 
Re:

Netserk said:
I see that quite a few have picked Kreuziger and Terpstra. I think Kreuziger is done at this point and will mostly function as road captain. Nieve joining doesn't help him either. Terpstra could be a fine pick, and it'll be interesting to see what role he'll have with Tommeke gone, but on the balance I think he'll score somewhat the same as last year.
Terpstra was one of the riders I cut out toward the end to enable Sagan in, I see a few have gone for Valverde, I think that Sagan might end 1000 points ahead of Valverde
 
Re:

Squire said:
@Kazistuta:
That's a good team, and very similar to mine. :D

You went with a few of my favourites who I was close to picking (De Plus, Vervaeke). So far you're the only other team with Brenton Jones, I think. I'm not convinced by Vanmarcke though, and I hope that could be where I beat you.

I can see you continuing your stellar record in this game.
Well, 20 riders in common can't be all that bad :razz:

Actually went back and forth with Vanmarcke, who always seem to F up. And would have loved to have Woods on my team, but after placing him on my short list earlyin 2017, his vuelta performance just took him out of my range.

And Brenton Jones will hopefully do wonders for the both of us :exclaim:
 
Aug 13, 2016
50
1
2,685
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel 629
VANMARCKE Sep 602
WOODS Michael 551
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 505
LATOUR Pierre 453
DUPONT Timothy 420
HAIG Jack 395
GAUDU David 352
BAUHAUS Phil 311
JANSEN Amund Grøndahl 304
WIPPERT Wouter 297
VAN POPPEL Danny 287
MAS NICOLAU Enric 285
CAVENDISH Mark 257
DE PLUS Laurens 239
BOUDAT Thomas 238
COQUARD Bryan 220
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto 159
HALVORSEN Kristoffer 151
BANASZEK Alan 149
NAESEN Lawrence 125
VERVAEKE Louis 119
JAKOBSEN Fabio 118
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas 77
NIZZOLO Giacomo 66
KANGERT Tanel 58
DE BIE Sean 57
CAPIOT Amaury 32
ALBANESE Vincenzo 31
KÖNIG Leopold 10
ISERBYT Eli 3
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 0
DE VYLDER Lindsay 0

Some may say I have too many Belgians, some may be right. First time playing this and I *probably* made too many decisions with my heart. Picking De Vylder and overlooking Holst Enger, I'm still not sure how that happened.
 
Dec 27, 2017
45
2
2,585
Being as a first time player I'm glad to see all these other lists...I feel much better because I have a lot of riders that appear on many other lists. I also have a few that don't ha but overall I think I could have done much worse. Looking forward to following more riders this season and paying attention to races I otherwise may not have.
 
Re:

Netserk said:
I think the WC route is a good argument in favour of Piti over Sags. It's 400 points Sagan will lose and Valverde will for sure end on the podium.
Sagan was pretty unfortunate last classics season and he was disqualified from the Tour. I think those 400 points could be earned elsewhere during the season ;)
 
Of course he can, but how realistic is it for him to improve (significantly) his 2016 score? You'd have to subtract 400 points from that. That leaves a 600 points profit plus a bit extra. I think Valverde is far more likely to make a 1000 points profit than Sagan is, and that's not even taking into account that Sagan needs a larger profit to be a good pick than Valverde does.
 
I'm pretty sure that I have at least one unique pick.

GUARDINI Andrea
CAVENDISH Mark
NIZZOLO Giacomo
COQUARD Bryan
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat
KÖNIG Leopold
PHINNEY Taylor
HÄNNINEN Jaakko
HAIG Jack
CRADDOCK Lawson
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd
BRANDAO Joni Silva
DAVIES Scott
CAPIOT Amaury
GANNA Filippo
CIMA Imerio
DE BIE Sean
PADUN Mark
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
EWAN Caleb
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel
ALAPHILIPPE Julian
THOMAS Geraint
OOMEN Sam
GAUDU David
CARPENTER Robin
VAN POPPEL Danny
MAS NICOLAU Enric
BONIFAZIO Niccolo
DE PLUS Laurens
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
 
BRAMBILLA Gianluca
COQUARD Bryan
REICHENBACH Sébastien
ROELANDTS Jürgen
CAVENDISH Mark
SBARAGLI Kristian
KENNAUGH Peter
STANNARD Ian
NIZZOLO Giacomo
KANGERT Tanel
GUARDINI Andrea
ALBANESE Vincenzo
CRADDOCK Lawson
FENN Andrew
ALAPHILIPPE Julian
SAGAN Peter
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
MULLEN Ryan
KÄMNA Lennard
DOULL Owain
DUNBAR Eddie
TURGIS Anthony
DE BIE Sean
TSATEVICH Alexei
BILLE Gaëtan
ALAPHILIPPE Bryan
BJERG Mikkel
HNIK Karel
MINALI Riccardo
PREIDLER Georg
WALLAYS Jelle
MAIKIN Roman
VAN ASBROECK Tom

Um, yeah. I did the team in an hour or so after forgetting about this competition so I'm not surprised that I've missed loads. I thought about Halvorsen and decided against it because I didn't think he'd have many chances but in hindsight I was wrong. Intxausti is frustrating, part of me thought he was still injured possibly. Lopez is another bad miss, as is Ciccone (I forgot about his heart surgery) while Formolo I don't think has a very high ceiling especially if he continues focusing on GC which he can't really improve on 10th or so like last year, so that one was an intentional miss. I am kind of banking on Sagan having an improved spring (which shouldn't be too hard, las year was a pretty big disappointment) and a Tour in which he doesn't get kicked out. I have also invested heavily in young TTers (dunbar, mullen, kamna) as well as a few russians. But effectively it's all on Sagan, Ala and few 200 point picks which I have low hopes for.
 
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
greenedge said:
Bettiol is a risk (with GVA having the ability to perform at the same races he does) but one I hope that pays off with some experienced riders around him.
I have the same thoughts about Bettiol. I picked him mainly because I like him, but somehow I also feel more confident in BMC than Cannondale. GVA could be an issue, of course. Let's see.
Gerrans' experience will be key for him in races like AGR/LBL (Teuns should be leader at FW). Hopefully if he rides well in the Ardennes he can have a bigger role in late season one day races.
 
Wow, I've completely missed Sondre Holst Enger.
My biggest gamble is my most expensive pick - Richie Porte.
However, my other picks seem to be very popular.
 
Re:

jsem94 said:
I kind of understand both choosing Porte and Valverde. Both had their seasons cut short, but there is no guarantee whatsoever their springs will be nearly as good as last year.

Valverde is getting older, has had this injury, so are you really banking on him getting 2700+ points? Ludicrous if you ask me, that's one of the biggest high risk picks one could take.

Porte? High ceiling. Could get 2000+ with relative ease, but he'd need to be just as fortunate as last year in the lead-up to the Tour and actually finish a GT placing high and maybe going into the Vuelta or Worlds and scoring big as well. He's never done it in his career yet and I haven't been convinced ever that he will suddenly be able to pull it off without something getting in the way.

Even with a 1000+ point pick you want to be relatively comfortable that they will add 50% to their score. So 1000->1500. Maybe if your pick is Valverde you want at least 600 points extra for it to be worth it. I don't know. Or you're banking on your low cost riders scoring many hundreds of points each.
I’m banking on Valverde scoring that much! :)
I think he’s gonna be the highest scorer of 2018. He’s back :cool:
 
skidmark said:
Okay, unofficial count is 128 teams. My time to work on this is up for now, but until next time, here's my team:

VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
OOMEN Sam
LATOUR Pierre
GAUDU David
VAN POPPEL Danny
MAS NICOLAU Enric
CAVENDISH Mark
ROELANDTS Jürgen
COQUARD Bryan
KÄMNA Lennard
VENDRAME Andrea
DOULL Owain
BRAMBILLA Gianluca
GARCIA CORTINA Ivan
HALVORSEN Kristoffer
SIVAKOV Pavel
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben
RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas
MAMYKIN Matvey
NIZZOLO Giacomo
HAUSSLER Heinrich
KANGERT Tanel
GUARDINI Andrea
MCNULTY Brandon
CAPIOT Amaury
ALBANESE Vincenzo
CRADDOCK Lawson
KÖNIG Leopold
ENGER Sondre Holst
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat

I'll be back to discuss at length in the future, I'm sure, but feel free to pick it apart.
I have to say, besides your irrational trust in Grosu, it's the first time I'm scratching my head at some of your selections but first, I'll talk about your picks I really like. Obviously I like the riders we have in common (Lopez, Latour, Gaudu, Mas, Cavendish, Coquard, Fernandez, Navardauskas, Nizzolo, Guardini, Capiot, Craddock, König, Intxausti and Enger) but the reasoning behind most is pretty obvious so I'm not gonna spend a paragraph on them.

Kämna, Roelandts and Oomen were all on my first draft but when you come in at 9000pts you have to cut some riders. Oomen in particular I think is going to break through this year and I'm a bit annoyed to see him picked by so many top players. It just reinforces my belief that his omission is going to blow up right in my face. I never considered Chaves and I wish I had, with good health he's easily a 1000+ pts type of rider and for that price it's a very good pick.

I'm not a Mamykin fan but I think he's better than what he showed last year and he is in a better situation scoring wise this year. Good rare pick.

I like the Valverde choice. Nobody can deny his unique ability to rack up CQ points and for his price point, I'd want at least 2400 to feel really good about selecting him which feels very doable for a rider of his caliber. Still that's a tough ask for anybody turning 38 in the middle of the season. He has to drop off at some point right ? Even without accounting for age-based regression let's look at what his history tells us. He missed a big chunk of the season last year but that's not necessarily where does he does the most damage scoring wise and his start to the season went pretty much as well as you could hope. He scored 1329 pts pre TDF in 2016, 1654 in 2015 and 1458 in 2014 (obviously 1828 in 2017). That's 1567 pts on average. His last 3 TDF + Vuelta were 579 (2016), 883 (2015), 1094 (2014). There's definitely some slippage here. How much was due to racing the Giro in 2016, how does having Landa on top of Quintana affect his GC potential, how many points can he recoup from Contador's (and Froome's ?) absence ? Let's give him his average 852 pts (that seems a bit high to me). That leaves San Sebastian + Lombardia + the Worlds. 600 points in 2014, 399 in 2015, 212 in 2016. Again, his numbers are trending down later in the year (and he has good excuses like no Worlds in 2016 but that's a lot of evidence that's starting to rack up to suggest he has more trouble finishing seasons as he ages). Let's say he would have placed 5th in the Worlds in 2016 had he participated (not unreasonable given his track record at the event), his 2014-2016 average for the three races would be 456 pts. So looking at his performances 2014-2017, if he doesn't slip due to age and doesn't miss time he projects around 2875 pts which would make him a great pick. Honestly with Landa and Quintana on his team, I have a hard time seeing him as a big GC threat in the GTs so I had him more around 400-450 pts for Vuelta and TDF combined which put him right at the limit for consideration. In the end, I'm a bigger believer in the upside of Alaphilippe, Gaviria and Bardet than Valverde for the purpose of this game (plus I like them better) but he was the only other 1000+ pts riders I considered.

Haussler, Kangert, Van Poppel and Brambilla should bounce back and I expect them to be good picks but they are riders that I find difficult to get excited about.

Vendrame and Garcia Cortina didn't jump off the page to me. I would love to hear why you found them so appealing when there are plenty of other worthy options in their price range.

I had Doull last year but he seemed overwhelmed at the WT level and he looks more than a year away to me. Albanese was one of my worst picks last year. He's young and can improve but he was just so, so far away last year, I dont know where he's going to score points in the pros. I feel like there were more worthy gambles in that price range.

Can't say I'm too impressed with your crops of neo-pros though it's always a more difficult (and subjective) exercise than picking established riders. I don't know much about McNulty and Riabushenko but they don't scream special to me. I think Halvorsen is fast but I don't think he's strong enough to hang until the end of WT stages yet. I have zero trust in Sivakov translating his u23 results to the pros (right away).
 
2018 squad!

ARU Fabio
ALAPHILIPPE Julian
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel
WOODS Michael
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
GAUDU David
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
MAS NICOLAU Enric
CAVENDISH Mark
COQUARD Bryan
DEVRIENDT Tom
WALSCHEID Maximilian
EDMONDSON Alexander
WÜRTZ SCHMIDT Mads
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
HALVORSEN Kristoffer
SMITH Dion
KENNAUGH Peter
POWER Robert
CANTY Brendan
RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr
SOSA CUERVO Ivan Ramiro
NIZZOLO Giacomo
KANGERT Tanel
SOTO MARTINEZ Nelson Andres
ALLEGAERT Piet
CAPIOT Amaury
COSTA Adrien
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose
CRADDOCK Lawson
KÖNIG Leopold
DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres
ENGER Sondre Holst

Good luck to everyone!
 
Given his track record in this game, it's always worth taking a look at skidmark's team. But I have to say I agree with some of EITB's observations.

At first glance, it's got a lot of 'skidmarky' picks. Riders performing in late season last year (Doull, Oomen, Kämna), and riders with one or two very strong performances which creates hope that they will show it more often (Garcia, Fernandez, Craddock).

Doull did have his injury (or was it illness) early last year, but I still don't see him doing a lot more than solid domestique duties. I think both Halvorsen and Lawless get sprint chances ahead of him.

I had Vendrame last year, and he did his job well. He missed out on even more points due to some crashes, but I still don't see him ripping it apart this year. He can end up having a good season but only score 300 points, depending on race category/GC results. I'm a fan though, so I hope he does well.

Garcia is a bit like I described Gougeard last year: Rouleur type without a lot of obvious chances for points, even though he seems like a great talent. Neos like Sivakov and Riabushenko will have their options limited, I think, even though they are monster talents. There are just too many more experienced Riabushenkos at UAE. I'm not excited about Roelandts, who I think will lack chances.

But contrary to EITB's opinion, I do like the Albanese pick. He started 2017 with knee problems, then got ill, and was chucked into the Giro as a 20-year-old without any form whatsoever. He got through most of it pretty well, but he never really caught up form-wise until the last few races of the season. I still have full faith in him being a new Italian superstar. You don't single-handedly ride solo away from the U23 peloton over and over again without having something special.

Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.
 
Re: Re:

fauniera said:
Squire said:
Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.
So what about my Alaphilippe+Valverde strategy?
Best of both worlds :D

I'm hoping that you, as defending champion, will write the reasoning behind your picks.
 
I think in the case of a few of us we picked Valverde as much with our heart as we did anything else. Of course do expect him to still have that unique consistency. He's only very slowly showing his age and everyone who rides with him as regular training partners are claiming he's fully recovered from the injury. Now it is true that his 2nd half of the season is typically not as good as the first half where he really shines. However, 2016 his 12th at la Vuelta is really due to having raced 3 GTs that year. I also think many of us are counting on his banking top 10 points for both the Tour and Vuelta (possibly podium at la Vuelta) along with at least a few stages of both the Tour and Vuelta gaining points. Granted it's unlikely he'll have as crazy good of a start to the season this year as he had last year.
 
Re: Re:

fauniera said:
Squire said:
Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.
So what about my Alaphilippe+Valverde strategy?
What about my Valverde + Alaphilippe + Gaviria strategy? :lol:
I had to stick with Gaviria and Alaphilippe after what they did for me last year. Valverde, I just fancy that he will think in terms of going out with a bang .... and I don't mean into the railings.
 
Mar 14, 2009
3,436
0
0
Re: Re:

Squire said:
fauniera said:
Squire said:
Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.
So what about my Alaphilippe+Valverde strategy?
Best of both worlds :D

I'm hoping that you, as defending champion, will write the reasoning behind your picks.
Hey Squire, you are always good at picking your team and once again you have a very solid team and my only questions is, do you really believe that G.Thomas and M.Woods can double their points?

For some reason I don't see it, but again, I suck at predicting success and you are the master of this game.
 
Re: Re:

Jancouver said:
Squire said:
fauniera said:
Squire said:
Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.
So what about my Alaphilippe+Valverde strategy?
Best of both worlds :D

I'm hoping that you, as defending champion, will write the reasoning behind your picks.
Hey Squire, you are always good at picking your team and once again you have a very solid team and my only questions is, do you really believe that G.Thomas and M.Woods can double their points?

For some reason I don't see it, but again, I suck at predicting success and you are the master of this game.
I'm definitely not the master of this game. But I like talking about it. My mouth is a lot bigger than my results. :D

Woods:
I think he's an exceptional talent, and he rode the first two GTs of his career last year, which could take him to a next level this year, as it often does. And his team is now a lot slimmer in the climbing department ('rivals' like Formolo & Talansky gone).

I actually picked him in the belief that he'd aim for the Tour. I saw that as the perfect schedule for him. Not that he would do so well in the Tour itself, but I could see him scoring in spring stage races, getting a good Ardennes peak, a good Suisse/Dauphiné, and perform in San Seb, the Canadian races and the Worlds, where I think he can podium. But now he's doing the Giro apparently. Not sure what I think about that, but the rest of the season could still go pretty much the same.

Thomas:
I had Moscon in my team all December, but in the end I got too nervous about the Reichenbach thing, or a collarbone break in E3 Prijs. And Thomas became very tempting with Froome aiming for the Giro (and even better if he's banned). Thomas actually got paid less points than his performances deserved in the half season he did last year. Tirreno TTT screwing his GC, and the crazy Catalonia stage also screwing his GC. This year, his spring program is perfect for him. Later he could score well in the Tour (+prep race), and he's said he will race in the autumn, too. Also, I don't need him to double his points to be worthwhile. 1300+ is enough.
 
My Roster

I wish i knew who Inxausti is, but looks like i missed big on that one. Going higher risk. Top 50 not good enough.

PORTE Richie - High risk but certainly has a chance to reach 2000
ALAPHILIPPE Julian - I just love to watch him race. Need someone to route for.
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel - Hopefully Vuelta is a good sign
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban - Obvious pick (thought bout Simon with the two grand tours)
OOMEN Sam - Probably not great value but he is so good i needed him.
GESINK Robert - A less popular pick, but could get a few more points without injury.
VAN POPPEL Danny - See some sprint wins.
MAS NICOLAU Enric - Another not great value, but has so much potential I didn't want to miss it.
KREUZIGER Roman - Some say he's done. I thought i read some positive quotes from him. So why not?
CAVENDISH Mark - Of Course
COQUARD Bryan - Pretty sure everyone else would have him
FORMOLO Davide - I think he made a good move for more points.
BRAMBILLA Gianluca - good value
MINALI Riccardo - Stretch here. But I like young sprinters
O'CONNOR Ben - Not sure why. Heard he was good
GARCIA CORTINA Ivan - Last second add (realized i was under budget) I really liked his results last year. On flats and hills. Not sure his specialty but seems pretty talented. Hoping a rarer pick.
HALVORSEN Kristoffer - Defensive pick. Too early but thought others would have him too.
CARTHY Hugh - Not sure. Had him last year.
VERVAEKE Louis - Whoa. I thought I passed on him. No, I wasn't drinking. Well, glad to have a good climber at this value. I wonder who i dropped for him.
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben - Not sure. Was talented. Still is?
RAVASI Edward - Too early but good talent.
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas - Solid value and will get some chances.
CHEVRIER Clément - My calculator picked this one.
MAMYKIN Matvey - Value pick. Not high on him.
NIZZOLO Giacomo - Obvious
KANGERT Tanel - Should be way better then last year.
GUARDINI Andrea - Hoping for some smaller race wins
MOSER Moreno - great value
WACKERMANN Luca - I forget who this guy is. I think a youngster. Cheap and rare.
CRADDOCK Lawson - Great value and too young to give up on.
KÖNIG Leopold - Value
FOURNIER Marc - $5 add. Not expecting much.
ENGER Sondra Holst - Had him last year. No idea why he sucked. Turns out he's a popular pick.

Next year I'll start making an effort to learn pro-conti teams and races if i want a chance to win. I'm American. I'm slow.
 

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