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The 2020 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

Page 7 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Okay, the maths first, then I'll get to my team (and fauniera should stop messing about, too ;))


Maybe you're referring to my post crunching the numbers on the Valverde strategy a few years back? The conclusion was that such an expensive rider only needs a tiny bit of profit (see my correction post a couple of posts below the main one), but it requires there being enough good cheap picks which the more balanced teams can't fit in.
That is indeed the post I was referring to. Thanks! It's a very interesting read. For what it's worth, I don't use formulas or anything when deciding my team, but perhaps I should try that next year. I just have a spreadsheet showing all rider's scored in 2019 and 2018, percentage return etc.
 
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That is indeed the post I was referring to. Thanks! It's a very interesting read. For what it's worth, I don't use formulas or anything when deciding my team, but perhaps I should try that next year.
I don't really use formulas either. It's not like I put expected average, average high and average low into a spreadsheet and do all sorts of intricate calculations. But I have used some historical data to get a good picture of what the overall team composition should look like and trends for what kind of teams are successful in the game. In practice, when picking my team, I go about it in a very similar fashion to what skidmark described a few years ago, with trying out different combinations of pairs or trios of riders until I'm happy. And I do keep in mind risk/reward a lot when picking riders.

thomas expect him to do a lot more small tours since he want to prove he is not match less then bernal
That is actually an interesting perspective that never crossed my mind!
 
The point about a very expensive rider is true but the problem appears when that rider gets injured and your chances are gone. I considered both MvdP and Pogacar for the team but decided to go with Remco and Van Aert so I can fit some other riders in the team. I also considered Sagan among the super expensive riders.

M biggest omission so far is Soren Kragh. Despite the fact I checked CQ ranking many times I somehow forgot he exists. This morning when I saw the teams I was shocked seeing him. In my mind he was 500+ points....
 
Looking at his results, he didnt do very well on GC in any race. Not even the one-week races. I figured if he does better in those races this year. A top 5 or even top 10 in Giro. His potential in Olympics and Worlds. two courses that suits him. There is definitely the making for a great season. If finding form. Starts early in TDU which could be some easy points. To me it looked like a good pick but anything can happen. Bad form. Injuries.

It looked like a risk worth taking. Especially what he showed in 2018. If it was a freak-year, only the future can tell.
Yeah I also thought about Olympics and Worlds but came to the conclusion that although the Yates' skillset seems to be suited to classics they (Simon in particular) haven't had much success there. For me it was also a decision between him and bardet and I think bardet will benefit from the olympics and worlds more
 
33 riders at 7498 points
It's absolutely crazy how similar our teams are. We share 22 riders, and I have all of your 11 most expensive picks! :eek:

If we end up topping the table, this is what it boils down to:
KRAGH ANDERSEN Søren
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David
FELLINE Fabio
HERMANS Quinten
GROVES Kaden
DRUCKER Jempy
MÄDER Gino
CULLAIGH Gabriel
ARDILA ORDOÑEZ Andres Camilo
CAVENDISH Mark
SIMMONS Quinn

vs

ROSA Diego
RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan
MOSCHETTI Matteo
CHERNETSKIY Sergey
WARLOP Jordi
MEINTJES Louis
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben
BAGIOLI Andrea
MINALI Riccardo
CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander
HOELGAARD Daniel

And Mäder was one of my two last minute changes (literally, a minute before the deadline).

The way I see it, I think you have a slight edge among the more expensive picks, and I have a significant edge among the cheaper ones. It could be very close between our teams.
 
Yeah I also thought about Olympics and Worlds but came to the conclusion that although the Yates' skillset seems to be suited to classics they (Simon in particular) haven't had much success there. For me it was also a decision between him and bardet and I think bardet will benefit from the olympics and worlds more

Yup.

Well, I got both of them. I think Bardet program looks very good. For me it was more of a choice between Bardet and Pinot actually, once I decided to get Mas. Where I gave Bardet the nod. Pinot going to the Tour looks tough with almost everyone going there. Unless he finds great form again, and no bad luck. Which might be the biggest obstacle. Or have an incredible fall. I decided not to pick him. Which might have been foolish.
 
Just a short reflection on my own team compared to some others. Maybe I shouldnt have focused too much on the balance of the team and included more cheap riders, since Im seeing I probably missed a couple that could have been good. But those also have questionsmarks around them. First-year pros. Riders getting back from injury, illnesses or simply past it. It is no garantee that they will double, triple and so on. I guess every rider has questionmarks around them and you never know what can happen during a season. So we will see.
 
Okay, let's get down to business!

As I said earlier, I thought it was really easy picking most of my team this year. The other options in the 500+ range didn't appeal to me at all. Only Gaviria was given a bit more than just brief consideration.

PINOT Thibaut 861
BARDET Romain 734
YATES Simon 668
-- I somewhat disagree with Gigs. I think he's pretty obvious. I do believe 2018 was a fluke, but last year he hardly got any points outside of the GTs. Didn't get paid anything for his good form in Andalucia and Paris-Nice. Should also score much more in the Giro this year, and can hopefully tear up the Aussie summer as an added bonus.
KWIATKOWSKI Michal 645 - No doubts.
MOSCON Gianni 424 - Generational talent who I'm surprised is not picked by more people. Surely he can't mess up his season preparations for the third year running.
KELDERMAN Wilco 402
LATOUR Pierre 352
SOLER Marc 350
DUMOULIN Tom 341
VAN POPPEL Danny 334
ROSA Diego 297
- Last autumn he was back to a level that is good enough to be a force on the Pro Conti level. And his preliminary race schedule is mouth-watering in a CQ perspective.
BOUHANNI Nacer 276 - No Vasseur should mean a happy and succesful Bouhanni. You don't suddenly become slow in one year. Worried about the team recruiting possibly the most positionally weak sprinter ever as his leadout though.
ARU Fabio 194
OOMEN Sam 179
- Very uncertain pick. Fractured hip and iliac artery problems?! But too many opportunities for him to leave him out.
RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan 167 - He's probably not as good as Vendrame, but he looks like Androni's best bet for hilly classics now. His problem has always been that he was a bit lazy, but this winter he's been tearing it up on Strava.
MOSCHETTI Matteo 160 - Unconvinced, but I can't risk it if he has an Ackermann-like breakthrough.
CHERNETSKIY Sergey 126 - A bit like Restrepo, in that he's not on Vlasov's level, but Chernetskiy should be the leader for a team with a very good calendar for point scoring. Always a risk picking Russians late in their carreer though. They seem to fade quickly.
HAAS Nathan 118
WARLOP Jordi 117
- Maybe a unique pick? A bit of a wildcard who might fizzle out at 200 points, but the man's an absolute beast and he had some illness limiting him for the first half of the season. When he recovered in the summer, he showed amazing consistency. Was heading for a top 5 in Münsterland when he went down in a crash near the line, so his cost could easily have been a lot higher. Also, a lot of the strongmen from Sport Vlaanderen have left the team which should open up more opportunities. He's due a 1.1 win or two this season.
MEINTJES Louis 107 - Bad luck instead of bad form was his main problem last year. Still has the level to score quite a few hundred.
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben 83
BAGIOLI Andrea 83
- Best U23 climber last year with a fearsome sprint to go with his climbing abilities. Surprised to see him not picked by too many. Only worry is that it could be a year too early. Mas, De Plus, Schachmann etc. were one year older when they went to Quickstep.
FROOME Chris 77 - I had initially decided to leave him off and pick Pacioni instead. But then I broke down a minute before the deadline and put him in, along with Minali for Mäder. skidmark put it well in his reply to the PM: «There's a 15% chance he'll be a good pick and 5% he'll be a backbreaker, so that's a hard risk to take.»
GENIEZ Alexandre 68 - Lottery ticket. I'm worried that his poor season was due to some virus, even though he doesn't think so himself. But there's still a lot of upside in case of a revival.
MODOLO Sacha 67 - Also one of my less certain picks. But surely there's enough Belgian one-day races for him to be worth it even if he's not back to his old level.
POWER Robert 56 - Let's hope one of his three good days this year comes in a 1.HC race with poor competition.
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto 52 - Disregarding the big breakaway in the sterrato stage, he was really close to Ardila in the U23 Giro. Excellent climber who is proven to be consistent on European roads. Looking for a big breakthrough in smaller Spanish races.
MINALI Riccardo 52
CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander 36
- I trust in Savio.
HOELGAARD Daniel 33 - Surprised not to see him in any teams so far. Did well the very few times he got to sprint with FDJ, and was an excellent leadout for Sarreau. Should pick up results in 1.1 races as the Uno-X leader.
VICHOT Arthur 28 - He very much looks like he is done. That virus has hit him really, really hard. But I read in an interview that he apparently had the same virus in 2015, and that turned out pretty well. So there's always hope, and the upside is too big to miss out on.
KANTER Max 8
DE BIE Sean 5


Guys who were part of the wrestle for the last few spots were Holst Enger (would have really liked him, but didn't fit in), Mäder, Pacioni, Felline, Osorio, Garcia, Vakoc, Dainese and Simmons.
 
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I found it difficult to get away from the Worlds and Olympics RR being on hilly courses - maybe overrating that pointswise.

BARDET Romain
YATES Simon
KWIATKOWSKI Michal
MADOUAS Valentin
DEGENKOLB John - my last pick (not a good sign), got me bang on 7500. Maybe young enough to still be a top 1-dayer
BEVIN Patrick
MOSCON Gianni
SOLER GIMENEZ Marc
DUMOULIN Tom
VAN POPPEL Danny
BOUHANNI Nacer
ROOSEN Timo
STEIMLE Jannik
PADUN Mark
FELLINE Fabio
RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan - He looks made for all those small italian races but shape has to be taken on trust
KÄMNA Lennard
CAICEDO CEPEDA Jonathan Klever - Giving him another chance, last year was meh but some promise
WÜRTZ SCHMIDT Mads - expecting him to be a rare pick, he's often looked really strong and not had results
CRAS Steff
WARLOP Jordi - I'm on the bandwagon ! I've always had a rider from this team (Allegeart last year)
DRUCKER Jempy
EEKHOFF Nils
STRAKHOV Dmitry
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto
MÄDER Gino
ARDILA ORDOÑEZ Andres Camilo
SENNI Manuel - Giving him another chance, possibly a mistake. Never got going after early season crash
CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander
CAVENDISH Mark - he should be retired but the fact that he isn't makes me think there must be some confidence
KANTER Max
DE BIE Sean
SIMMONS Quinn
 
FROOME Chris 77
DUMOULIN Tom 341
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 731
SOLER GIMENEZ Marc 350
ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves 112
MCNULTY Brandon 267
BAGIOLI Andrea 83
ARDILA ORDOÑEZ Andres Camilo 44
MOSCHETTI Matteo 160
RAVANELLI Simone 116
KWIATKOWSKI Michal 645
PADUN Mark 209
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto 52
OOMEN Sam 179
CELANO Danilo 102
ARU Fabio 194
PINOT Thibaut 861
BARDET Romain 734
FELLINE Fabio 199
HAILU Biniam Girmay 55
MODOLO Sacha 67
CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander 36
OSORIO CARVAJAL Alejandro 51
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben 83
BALLERINI Davide 252
VAN POPPEL Danny 334
MOSCON Gianni 424
STANNARD Robert 114
LATOUR Pierre 352
VICHOT Arthur 28
DIBBEN Jonathan 0
KANTER Max 8
DURBRIDGE Luke 229

Many obvious picks.
Durbridge should have a great spring if h can avoid crashes.
McNulty and Almeida should do well on their new teams, Celano to score many points in Asia and Hailu + Ravanelli are my more uniqe picks.
 
It's absolutely crazy how similar our teams are. We share 22 riders, and I have all of your 11 most expensive picks! :eek:

If we end up topping the table, this is what it boils down to:
KRAGH ANDERSEN Søren
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David
FELLINE Fabio
HERMANS Quinten
GROVES Kaden
DRUCKER Jempy
MÄDER Gino
CULLAIGH Gabriel
ARDILA ORDOÑEZ Andres Camilo
CAVENDISH Mark
SIMMONS Quinn

vs

ROSA Diego
RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan
MOSCHETTI Matteo
CHERNETSKIY Sergey
WARLOP Jordi
MEINTJES Louis
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben
BAGIOLI Andrea
MINALI Riccardo
CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander
HOELGAARD Daniel

And Mäder was one of my two last minute changes (literally, a minute before the deadline).

The way I see it, I think you have a slight edge among the more expensive picks, and I have a significant edge among the cheaper ones. It could be very close between our teams.

Not the first time our teams are very similar :) We must think a lot alike.

Restrepo looks like a good pick, for some reason I never really considdered him, I guess I must have overlooked him going to Androni or just when screening riders. He would surely have had a good chance if I had been aware. Riders like Minali, Chernetskiy, Moschetti, Cepeda, Bagioli and Fernandez were all also close to make my team, and Warlop, Meintjes and Rosa could well be very good picks too. Only guy I have some doubts about is Hoelgaard. I would expect him to be leadout also on Uno X for Rodenberg or Blikra that I think are both faster. But I could be wrong.
 
@MADRAZO

Hope you are right about Hoelgaard and he will be leadout for my guy Rodenberg!

Also can't wait to see the 2017 and 2019 editions winner Fauniera team published!
I very much agree! Also looking forward to seeing skidmark's team. I think the team of Total Package looks very good so far, along with Madrazo's obviously. It's a bit hard to judge the teams that aren't sorted by points.

Regarding Hoelgaard, he was signed as a team leader and is expected to be the main sprinter. He had the offer of continuing as a leadout for Sarreau, so I doubt he will be very happy if he's asked to lead out at Pro Conti level. I really rate Blikra, but I don't think he's ready to last the distance in many of the races. Rodenberg seems fast, but he's aiming for the track in Tokyo. Don't know how that will affect his road season though.
 
I'm suprised Russia doesn't seem to be getting much love so far. I have Strakhov and Chernitskiy at Gazprom, both of whom seemed fairly obvious picks. The former should be back on his Spanish hunting grounds after a wasted year at Katusha. As I've missed Vichot, I'm hoping he will be my fairly unique pick to compensate. And as Squire has said above, Chernitskiy should be back on more fruitful territory after his barren year at Caja.

Zakarin was also on my team till quite late on as most riders improve after leaving Katusha. But there were more exciting riders at a similar price.
 
I very much agree! Also looking forward to seeing skidmark's team. I think the team of Total Package looks very good so far, along with Madrazo's obviously. It's a bit hard to judge the teams that aren't sorted by points.

Regarding Hoelgaard, he was signed as a team leader and is expected to be the main sprinter. He had the offer of continuing as a leadout for Sarreau, so I doubt he will be very happy if he's asked to lead out at Pro Conti level. I really rate Blikra, but I don't think he's ready to last the distance in many of the races. Rodenberg seems fast, but he's aiming for the track in Tokyo. Don't know how that will affect his road season though.

Yes I also did not pick Rodenberg for either this (or the U23 game) due to his big Tokyo focus, so he is a bit of a joker, but clearly very fast, and I liked how he was certain he could beat Merlier and Coquard back in the Tour Of Denmark last year, and I suppose Blikra is also a bit of a uncertain but very fast joker. Its quite possibly you are right about Hoelgaard being the leader afterall, I suppose he is still also young enough to have some personal ambitions, and he is indeed quite solid (especially also compared to Blikra indeed) and fast too and could clearly end up a good pick if so. Especially if the team goes to the right races (like those 1.1 races you mention) as they could perhaps do now with the new ProConti-status.
 
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Looks very good but why no Ardila?
I've had a good history with leaving out mega-popular picks (Cav, Kittel). But you're entitled to call me a fool if Ardila does a Pogacar! :D

He's just too wildly uncertain for me, and I don't think he has the potential for a gamebreaking season this year. There were some other uncertain picks where I was too afraid of missing out, but I feel confident enough in leaving Ardila out. Maybe he'll come good later.

I don't doubt he's a good climber, but that seems like the only ability he has. He said himself that he the pace in the flat stages of the U23 Giro, which had a much lower level compared to other European U23 races, was much higher than what he had been used to. And he's apparently a very bad time-trialist. He could well struggle in a pro peloton that goes full gas on the flat. And the competition in his only European race was very weak apart from perhaps Rubio, who beat Ardila in two out of four mountain stages. We don't know how he'd do against the Bagiolis, Champoussins and Valters.

But the main reason I left him out is his dodgy knees. I read an interview with him from November, I think, and at that point he still hadn't resumed training after his Giro win in June. That doesn't sound like a solid base for his first adventure with European pros.

I would appreciate if someone like Jakob could enlighten us more about Ardila though.
 
Here is my team and my incoherent thoughts;

SAGAN PeterA risk at the price but if he has a good classics campaign he should get to 2200 minimum
BARDET RomainLike look of his schedule, hoping change does him good
YATES SimonObvious pick to me, was slightly off last year. Anything like 2018 level and he will double his score
KWIATKOWSKI MichalNot 100% convinced but was hard to ignore
MOSCON GianniHas the talent and there were signs of life towards the end of 2019
LATOUR PierreWretched year in 2019, obvious pick
SOLER GIMENEZ MarcShould have chance to lead in more races and should easily double his score
DUMOULIN TomObvious pick
CAVAGNA RémiProbably one of my more rare selections. Like the way he races.
BOUHANNI NacerThink change of team will do him a world of good.
ANDERSEN Søren KraghObvious pick
STEIMLE JannikLooked so strong as stagiare last year, shame about heart op.
ARU FabioHe is due some luck and some good results
OOMEN SamObvious pick if his fitness holds up
KÄMNA LennardReal signs of progress last year, should have plenty of chances at his new team
MEINTJES LouisGiving him one more chance to prove he can still do it
VIVIANI AttilioNot likely to be up there in WT races but plenty of opportunities in French races
THWAITES ScottPrimarily will be support for Van der Poel but capable of getting some decent results
FROOME ChrisBriefly thought about leaving him out as no one knows how is and how he will go but at the price makes sence to include him
MODOLO SachaHoping he rediscovers some form and confidence
HAILU Biniam GirmayExciting prospect, could be anything but should make a nice profit
RUBIO REYES Einer AugustoShould get chance to shine at some point with the new outlook at Movistar
MÄDER GinoHad a really tough time of it last year but looked good at u-23 level
ARDILA ORDOÑEZ Andres CamiloHopefully will get a chance to shine at some point in what is a loaded team
BEULLENS CédricAlways like to have at least one rider from this team(Allegaert last year). Not expecting much
CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson AlexanderHoping Savio works his magic
VICHOT ArthurObvious pick
CAVENDISH MarkObvious pick at the price. Has looked in good shape on track
JACOBS JohanBit of a wildcard but should be part of Movistar cobble team
ALBA BOLIVAR Juan DiegoSimilar to Ardila
KANTER MaxAnother who season was a write off last year, should do nicely
DE BIE SeanObvious pick
DIBBEN JonathanHad to pick a zero pointer to get to 33. Simmons was in for a while but decided against. Probably a mistake
 
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CHERNETSKIY Sergey 126 - A bit like Restrepo, in that he's not on Vlasov's level, but Chernetskiy should be the leader for a team with a very good calendar for point scoring. Always a risk picking Russians late in their carreer though. They seem to fade quickly.
In the press release linked below the team seemed to show more confidence in their other signing, Strakhov, so I went with him.


Maybe I misinterpreted, but it doesn't appear that Chernetskiy will be a leader in every race he enters. Not saying he needs to be in order to be a good pick. (I had them both in my team until Jan. 4, I think.)