Great insights as always from all the guys here, it was really interesting to read. I'll try to go throught my thought process as well.
I tried to use my experince from first two years in the game, so i tried not to do the same mistakes twice. I learned that vast majority of my busts were sprinters and also the choice of expensive riders, so i concentrated mainly on the GC guys and climbers or more versatile sprinters like Cort, who can get it done in wider majority of the races.
I'm glad that for second year in a row i didn't forget any of the most popular riders, so any obmissions was my own decisions. Also this year there were really tough to choose the team, because of the combination of many obvious picks in the 400-800 range that you couldn't include all, and also many talented neo-pros or young riders (esp from Movistar, UAE and Sunweb).
I don't know the capabilities of many new riders at Movistar, but some of them will score big, so i had to pick some riders from that team. UAE haven't done a great job with young riders so far with exception of most talented (Pogo, Phillipsen), so i put the brake on some guys like Ardila and Bjerg that i would like to have if they were in other teams. And Sunweb is a frustrating team in terms of a calendar with emphasis on WT races.
So let's go through my picks:
PINOT Thibaut (861, 60) - Not the most reliable GC rider, but he can score big in the one day races as well and get to 2000 points if he'll finish TDF. ORR and WC also suits him well and i'm his fan, so this pick was a non-brainer and start for my team.
BARDET Romain (734, 54) - Not as big fan of him as Pinot, but also like the guy. Start at Australia and new calendar can be a new beginning for him.
YATES Simon (668, 84) - One of the most obvious picks with start of the season in Australia, where he can already score 200-300 points. He seems motivated even more this year to start strong and will ride Giro.
KWIATKOWSKI Michal (645, 65) - He was an obvious pick for me based on his talent alone, so i'm surprised to see only 65 picked him. He can score in all races that he enters with exception of TDF.
ZAKARIN Ilnur (478, 8) - Hate the russians, but can't help myself not to include at least one every year and usually they dissapoint (that's the reason why i didn't include Chernetsky or Strakhov). But Zakarin told about change of citizenship and even that betrayal of Putin is enough for me)) To be serious he is the only rider that can do good GC on his team and change of scenery must do him good (u can do worse than in Katusha only if u go to NTT).
URAN URAN Rigoberto (458, 21) - Zakarin and Uran picks were hard for me, because i choose them over Moscon (who i simply like less) and Eddy the Boss, who hamstrung me last year. Uran is fragile, but can score over 1000 easily and that's enough for me. Obmission of Moscon can burn me, but i'm okay with that.
KELDERMAN Wilco (402, 26) - Only 26 picks??? OMG! He is like the only guy who can ride GC at Sunweb and scored 600-900 points every year. Have a feel this could be his best year.
LATOUR Pierre (352, 78)
SOLER GIMENEZ Marc (350, 74) - I have more confidence in Latour than Soler to be honest, but Marc can score 700+ point in one week races with some top-15 at TDF and Vuelta. Potential for 1000+ for both.
DUMOULIN Tom (341, 109) - Don't need explanaition. And i love Tom.
VAN POPPEL Danny (334, 22) - He always stood out for me as a guy who just needs more opportunity to score big. He is solid cobble racer and sprinter, who will be leader in Pro Conti team. Wanted to pick him since last spring if he could get out of WvA shadow and here we go. Have big, big, big hope here.
ANDERSEN Søren Kragh (268, 43) - Like many here i just like him as a rider, though it's not clear where exactly he'll score points. But points will come in bunches surely.
CORT NIELSEN Magnus (227, 38) - Another versatile sprinter like Van Poppel that will benefit from change of team. In EF he can get even more chances.
PADUN Mark (209, 24) - First and foremost this is my everyyear fun pick as a fellow ukrainian. Also a big talent that can score points in many races and should improve without knee injury and illness that cost him most of the last year.
OOMEN Sam (179, 87)
ARU Fabio (194, 83) - From a pleothra of problematic obvious riders i choosed the GC specialists.
VANENDERT Jelle (181, 3) - This year my point of emphasis was to find guys who step down a level. Like Van Poppel he has to be a leader of his Pro Conti team and score points in 1-day and 1-week belgian and french races, that Wallonie rides. He is old and carry some risk, but i'm willing to bet in his puchy-ride style.
VAKOC Petr (145, 20) - Another one rider who step down a level and can be a leader in PCT. Great comeback season last year that gave me confidence in him. Lefevere must be looking at him too to see if he can lead again.
BAGIOLI Andrea (83, 35) - Seems like a great talent who goes to QS team that is always a recipe for success. Had to cut Chris Froome to make this pick work, so i hope he won't dissapoint.
GENIEZ Alexandre (68, 42) - He is a secondary GC rider in AG2R that cleans up some lower priority GC points for them. For some reason not raced much last year and finished even less races. Should be good for 200-400 points.
MODOLO Sacha (67, 62) - Getting old, but he's another versatile sprinter in the mold of Cort Nielsen that i'm more inclined to chose. MVDP presence will limit his chances, but he doesn't need much to be in profit.
WOUTERS Enzo (61, 2) - My most unique pick this year. Also another rider who stepped down a level. I always felt like Lotto is a grave of belgian talents and Wouters seemed like a talented sprinter for me. Hope that LTS didn't kill him completely and he will score in some 1 and HC-cat races in Belgium.
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto (52, 27) - I wrote about an army of young relatively or completely unknown riders that Movistar brought this offseason. I wanted to include somebody in my team and i know more about Rubio than the others. He is talented and can get some chances.
CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander (52, 27) - I just love Savio boys that almost never dissapoints me. Cepeda is another great talent that should flourish in Androni. If Munoz can score 300 points in this team without any noticeable talent, then Cepeda can score like 500.
VICHOT Arthur (28, 57) - Obv pick at this price and 57 people agreed with me.
CAVENDISH Mark (25, 70) - OMG i can't believe i picked him again. Everyyear neveragain rider, but i can't help myself. Also needed at least some true sprinters to root for in races.
ENGER Sondre Holst (18, 30) - I didn't know why i picked him last year, but i think he owes me a good season.
RAVASI Edward (15, 12)
KANTER Max (8, 63)
DONOVAN Mark (5, 16)
DE BIE Sean (5, 68)
WILLIAMS Stephen (0, 17)
SIMMONS Quinn (0, 76) - They are cheap, they are talented and were injured a lot. I'm willing to bet on the health of the talented rider who can get in profit just from participating in few WT races. You can't do wrong with this kind of stuff.
Also De Bie is my friend from 2018 year when i became his fan, the guy is a pure rider and i wish him healthy season.
Generally i picked a popular team with some fairly and semi-unique riders, that was my aim in first place. Wish everybody good luck this year and thanks to skidmark for his work.