Here's my team this year with some sort of argumentation and expectations - I tried a new approach for me, going top-heavy and splashing big on two riders almost always in the mix, thus also finding a lot of cheap (and young) guys to root for. Sadly I couldn't just leave my one sentimental pick out, so Sagan is on my team for the third time in a row:
ROGLIC Primoz: Still a great rider, was very unlucky last year from the Tour and beyond. Doubling the points to 2500+ should be doable with no major bad luck.
VAN DER POEL Mathieu: Also struck with bad luck in 2022, but such a classy rider. If Van Aert can get 2800 points, Van Der Poel should be able to get to 2200 points as well. Of course his back problems and his MTB focus might deter his season a bit, but still I feel he’s got so much upside, that I went for the “go big or go home” approach this year.
PIDCOCK Thomas: Picked due to potential and ambitions for the road in 2023. Will easily better his season from last year, 1500 points could be on the table, if he takes a leap in stage races, as I expect.
ALAPHILIPPE Julian: The former World Champ got struck by the rainbow curse, and even though Lefevre is picking on him, 6 out of his last 7 seasons went for over 1000 points, so he’s bound to bounce back in a major way. Probably a consensus pick.
SAGAN Peter: Okay, even though I burned my hand on picking Sagan over Evenepoel last year, I just can’t get myself to not picking him at this price. Sagan is still an undisputed leader, and if his long-covid symptoms and divorce are finally behind him, hopefully he’ll show the World he’s not done yet. I expect/hope for a 1000 points season.
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando: Movistar thinks Gaviria deserves super sprinter status, and even though they never really managed to back up a real sprinter, Gaviria will get a much needed change of scenery and clear leader role in the races he wishes. 800 points should be doable.
BAGIOLI Andrea: There’s plenty of chefs on QuickStep, and Bagioli will definitely fight with Alaphilippe in several races, but the guy is so talented and aggressive in his style. An injury-free season will also allow him at least 600 points, and I’m probably understating here.
HONORE Mikkel Frølich: If he stayed at QuickStep, I’d never have picked him, and even though EF isn’t exactly masters of one day races, Honoré is on the verge of breaking through with a big win, and a clear leader role will benefit him. 700 points area expected.
ASGREEN Kasper: I’m seeing the QuickStep theme here, but Asgreen had nothing going for him last season, and this guys motor is incredible - just ask Van Der Poel
600 points expected. Probably a consensus top10 pick.
UIJTDEBROEKS Cian: Actually young Cian exceeded my expectations for him last year, but after following him race much of the year, it’s clear this guy is the real deal. His ceiling is very high, and though it might take a year or two for him to break the 1000 points barrier, I wouldn’t risk making another mistake by not picking a very young, extremely talented Belgian.
SIMMONS Quinn: Just like Honoré, Simmons is a case of almost-there. He always lights up the races, makes him fun to watch, and he is sure enough in himself to expect his first (big) win to come this year. I’m gunning for a 500 points season.
VAN WILDER Ilan: Young, talented Belgian - and not just Evenepoels sidekick. I’m sure Logic-is-your-friend would tell everyone to pick him, and he couldn’t possibly be anymore unlucky than last year. 500+ points expected.
SCHACHMANN Maximilian: I don’t really know what went wrong with Schachmann last year, he just never was quite there. Three seasons prior all around the 1000 points tells me last season was the outlier. Expecting 750 points at least. Should be a consensus pick.
ONLEY Oscar: Let’s be honest - I didn’t really know the guy before seeing him race against Vingegaard in Croatia, but boy, was he amazing? DSM seem to have a reasonably flat hierarchy, so if Onley is further improving, there should be big things looming. A little daunting, but I’m going talents this year.
MILAN Jonathan: It was him or Van Uden, and in the end I opted for the guy who already showed great promise in the pro peloton last year. Milan is ready to step up to the next level and has a clear path to a leaders role on a Bahrain team void of sprinting competition bar Bauhaus. Expected 500 points.
STYBAR Zdenek: My standard “old cobbles guy”. Change of scenery to Jayco makes him clear leader, and Stybar himself apparently still thinks he has got what it takes. That’s enough for me, since he’s not Froome
400 points expected, potentially a consensus pick as well.
WILLIAMS Stephen: I’d liked it better, if his B&B Hotels team hadn’t collapsed, but I guess Israel has to do - a lot of minor races where he could use his punch. The guy has clearly not gotten enough out of his talents so far, and it’s just one of those cases of “I’ve got a feeling” by seeing his wins in Croatia ´21 and Suisse ’22. I expect 400+ points.
GREGOIRE Romain: Most likely picked too soon, but his performance across the U23 scene has been amazing. Hopefully he’ll translate it to the pros rather sooner than later. Picked more from a talent perspective, but these last years have seen more and more young guys breaking through early on. 200 points is an easy estimate.
BRENNER Marco: Rode far better last year than his results suggest. Remember Brenner is still only 20 years old, and with a Vuelta in his bag now, I’m sure he’s ready to step up a notch this year on a DSM team screaming for results. I expect 400 points.
NYS Thibau: Another cyclocrosser-turned road racer. Still very young and learning, but he’s fast and should get his chances this year. Hard to tell if this year is too soon for him, but in the end I opted for him instead of team mate Hellemose, as I think his ceiling is higher. 200 points expected.
MOSCHETTI Matteo: He bossed the Mallorcan races in early 2020, but since then Moschetti has been rather quiet. I’m hoping that his switch to new Q36.5 (Gotta love that name!) will give him lots of opportunities in smaller races, where wins will raise his confidence - he doesn’t seem so confident. Hard to know his racing program yet, but let’s go with 300 expected points.
MOSCON Gianni: Il trattore - lost his 2022 season to a bacterial infection, but should be back on track now. It’s clear what he’s capable of, when he’s healthy. Astana needs him to step up. 500+ points, should be an easy consensus pick, if people don’t shy away from him because of his personality.
DE PLUS Laurens: I lost count of how many years I’ve picked De Plus in this game. He’s been hindered by a viral infection, which he took a long time to regain race fitness from, and even though he’s still a long way down the pecking order at Ineos, even the mules sometimes get their chances. Let’s say a 200 points outcome is a decent floor.
SCHELLING Ide: Another rider hit with long-covid symptoms last year, so I’m gonna trust his own words and believe he’s better now. Talented Dutchman, expecting a repeat of his 500 points from 2021. Will he be a consensus top15 pick due to his low price?
HOELGAARD Markus: Also Hoelgaard experienced the aftermath of Covid last year, which seems to be a theme for at lot of riders. He’s absolutely more than capable to score 300+ points in a regular season, despite backing up Mads P and Stuyven.
PONOMAR Andriy: Great Ukranian talent, still very young - but has already finished two grand tours. I primarily picked him because of his team change, where I need some guys for the massive amount of French races.
FISHER-BLACK Finn: Massively talented, ended 2022 with a terrible crash, just when he was about to show his big talent. Versatile and highly praised by Mauro Gianetti at UAE. 300+ points this year.
STEINHAUSER Georg: After finishing his studies, we’re now ready to see Steinhauser take on pro cycling full time. With both time trial and climbing skills he should be able to get some chances on a opportunistic EF team. 200 points.
HERMANS Ben: This one is gonna be boom-or-break I think. Also Hermans has been hit hard with long-covid. If he’s not able to return to his old self, he’s not gonna make the 50 points mark, but if healthy there’s 500 points on the table for the taking. I’m taking that odds, hoping for Hermans’ full recovery.
WALLS Matthew: Walls should be completely over that horrific crash in the Commonwealth and will likely resume an important sprinters position again this year. 400+ points expected - curious to see if this is a guy that players find general consensus in, because I just stumbled over him in the last minute.
QUICK Blake: Groves is gone, Blake is Quick. Well, not quite as fast yet, but he will at least get some chances, because of the hole the departure of Groves left at Jayco. Very cheap, let’s say the floor is 200 points.
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley: Well, nothing to say here. Guaranteed to be the top pick in this years game, most likely unanimous, except for those forgetting about him or not caring about the overall win.
DEKKER David: French racing. Period. Okay, that’s a bit rough. Dekker showed potential in his first season, but he has been unlucky, ridden silly/stupid or been hit by sickness. He would’ve easily gotten 200 points anywhere else, but on Arkea I can see a 400+ points season coming up.
Good luck to all this year, but mainly good luck to my team
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