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Personally I considered Stef Cras very hard, as I think he's shown the recovery for stage racing while being seriously unlucky still. I seem to remember him being part of the same crash that derailed Remcos and Vingegaards seasons, but he was really bad off as well. On the other hand he seems to have stability, but lacks the top level, and I can't really see him win or top3 anywhere. In the end I found other more interesting prospects in his point area.
That last part is not the quality stamp it used to be, though. And especially their neo-pros hasn't really shot through the roof over the years. I find his cost more than his ceiling warrants. Also thought about Svrcek-likeness actually.
Your team looks pretty interesting and is the total contrast to the popular van Aert and Vingegaard approach in the expensive segment.
As I said, I accept the assessment of him being a risky pick. But he's just a very intriguing type of a rider. I've always thought of him as a rider for hilly races but then he almost won a nearly flat cobbled race in Le Samyn and was 5th in Flanders, showing a huge engine and stamina. All in his neo-pro season. He looks like a rider who can potentially score well in pretty much any race on the calendar. And 2nd year pros are often good picks in these types of games. He rides for the best team in the peloton but due to his young age there's a good chance he will have a calendar where he'll be able to race with a lot of freedom rather than spend half a season working for Pogacar.
FWIW, the Collective Wisdom team (see above) would score 16809 on this basis, and be 9th in that table.
Good thing you still enjoy it, although (as I probably say each year
) it would have been interesting to see what kind of team you could have come up with.
wish I could do that in the games I run by spreadsheets: keeping up with CQ name changes is the bane of the task.
As expected for my team. I never dare to predict which talents will outperform their previous seasons and am more confident in selecting the ones that proved they can do it, but had a bad year.
After his U23 title Eekhoff went to 245 points in a year where he did less than 30 race days because of Covid... wouldn't mind Behrens replicating that moyenne.
It almost feels like you've stolen my girlfriend or something!
As you've said earlier, we usually have quite similar teams, but not this time. I don't have any of your top 5 most expensive picks and you don't have my top 4. After he made himself expensive, Powless was out of the question for me. I think his 2023 was the outlier and his other years more of the norm. He won't get 300 points from French .1 races in February every year. Ganna is probably solid enough, but again I see 2023 as an outlier. Two GC wins and a 2nd in 2.PS races is quite the points haul, which won't happen every year. The other three I did consider, as I mentioned in my team breakdown.
I like most of your team, but this one I disagree with. A bit like in my comment to MADRAZO above, I think 2023 won't be representative of a normal Healy year. I expect 2024 to be more the norm. I see him as a bit of a glorified Thomas De Gendt, and I don't think he can consistently expect so many top placings in big races as he got in 2023.
Quoting you here, but @Devil's Elbow has also preached the Nys gospel quite affectionately. I don't quite see it. Yes, he did look awesome at times, but he won't get another WT stage race where he just needs to outsprint Kelderman for three stages (don't at me!
). More seriously, I just can't trust a short season for someone that expensive. Not much room for failure.In my view, that's a VERY optimistic estimate for Van Aert, as I say a bit more about in my team post from earlier. But I'm loving that you're a fellow Almeida enthusiast! Especially since I think you've gone with an inferior strategy to complement him.
Yes, I agree this is a fun exercise, and it's one I use a lot when making my team (as I think you do too). I do think you're kinda forgetting (or just chosing not to mention) an important detail in this particular one though. Or we just judge floors differently.
I thought his decent 2022 kinda disqualified him based on your statement. So I didn't guess that it was Buitrago. The only one I found to fit what you said (the way I interepreted it) was Wærenskjold. Which would have been quite the gamble with the other options available. Buitrago I did at least briefly look at, though he wasn't really seriously considered. But I can see the appeal.
I also tried to make space for a third expensive rider. Mainly had Pidcock in mind, as making space for Van Aert would have been even more difficult. But as with you, I had some other guys I also really wanted to include, those being Vine/Plapp/Penhöet/Magnier. In my brief experimentation with trying to accommodate a third big one, it was mostly Magner or Penhöet who got the hypothetical boot, along with Dunbar and Riccitello (although I did want to keep the American too after I had convinced myself he was actually good).
Can't say I considered him this year, but I absolutely did last year. And ended up regretting not having him as a super-rare pick. Now granted, my other cheap picks did pretty well, but he still would have been a very satisfactory under-the-radar pick. And maybe he would have replaced Rafferty, so that would have been an upgrade. I can see improvement happening this year, but not enough most likely.
You also have a nice-looking team again this year. Hope we can renew our battling in the top 10!
Oooh, I wanted to! But I just couldn't justify it. Would have been fun though, especially if I had won the game. Sevilla deserves to have been on the winning CQ team at least once in his long career.
I considered Gazzoli last year (didn't pick him), but he basically blew his one chance in my book by having such a bad season. Cras was the only one on my longlist this year. Could be a solid points forager in stage races, but likely nothing spectacular I think, and there was a lot of other more attractive options. Mintegi I've never even heard of. Hope he does well though. We need some Euskaltel glory.
Well, his results were close to best-case-scenario for his calendar, and he still was in roughly the same ballpark (or worse in some cases, like Onley and Bernal) as several other picks in his price range.
I'm just catching up now and so several pages behind so this has probably been addressed, but just to repeat what I wrote on page 10, the spreadsheet popularity team scores have not been updated to current year yet - that will happen by this weekend. Shakes' site is the correct reference for 2025 as of now.
Nobody says he is foolish pick. I had a long thought about him, but his schedule scared me off. Ardennes classics don't scream like a lot of point to me and GT can be both good or completely wasted race days for him. I would've picked him if he was going to race more one-week stage races and classics, not a GT.
Oh no, I said his 2023 score! See quoted post below.
I meant the "very good level for two seasons in a row" part, where I thought his decent 2022 (in addition to 23-24) would make it three seasons in a row with a good level.
) and Almeida will surely be a decent pick if he avoids bad luck Popularity Team is entered. In the past I've put them on the 'Rankings' but not 'Update' tabs so people could see how they would rank, but that's also caused confusion so perhaps I'll do as you do.
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