- May 5, 2010
- 51,957
- 30,478
- 28,180
Dunno if it was mentioned already, or if it will make a difference in processing the points, but I think the year-columns should be 2025 and 2026.
Dunno if it was mentioned already, or if it will make a difference in processing the points, but I think the year-columns should be 2025 and 2026.
For me it is not only the no-Remco situation, but that Van Wilder is actually a very good rider. His TT in Rwanda was truly excellent imo and a bit of a breakthrough. Shame he crashed and injured himself right after that.
He also can climb and his TT-ability gives him a good chance in the one-week races especially. However, I would not be surprised if can achieve something in a GT as well in the future. Plus, being able to score in one-day races is another thing points could come from with him. Still young-ish with a lot of experience at this point, with maybe his best years still ahead of him.
We will see how it goes.
I have both
I had both Van WIlder and Tiberi in my team right up until the end, before I re-arranged to fit in Morgado.For me it is not only the no-Remco situation, but that Van Wilder is actually a very good rider. His TT in Rwanda was truly excellent imo and a bit of a breakthrough. Shame he crashed and injured himself right after that.
He also can climb and his TT-ability gives him a good chance in the one-week races especially. However, I would not be surprised if can achieve something in a GT as well in the future. Plus, being able to score in one-day races is another thing points could come from with him. Still young-ish with a lot of experience at this point, with maybe his best years still ahead of him.
We will see how it goes.
I have both
I do generally agree with you, in that if he performs the same in one week tours, rides for himself in one grand tour and gets a few one day results - then he could double his total and I'll regret it all year!
I'm hoping Tiberi has more upside in one week races and grand tours, but Van Wilder has the one day results. I also like Van Wilder much more than Tiberi, so I'm beginning to argue myself out of my choices!
All part of the fun or part of the torment.
- Nov 16, 2013
- 26,708
- 27,824
- 28,180
Derek Gee only having been picked four times is incredible to me. When it was finally announced that he would ride for Lidl-Trek from the beginning of the season a couple of days ago, I felt sure that he was the biggest miss of my team. Apparently not. But congratulations to the four who have him. Missing half a season not due to injury and then changing to a better team should be a ticket for a lot of teams I would have thought.
I am getting increasingly annoyed by my Bettiol pick - it would probably have been a lot better to have ditched him and then upgrade a few of my very cheap picks with guys like Valter, De Kleijn, Torres, Hagenes etc. Oh well.
I am getting increasingly annoyed by my Bettiol pick - it would probably have been a lot better to have ditched him and then upgrade a few of my very cheap picks with guys like Valter, De Kleijn, Torres, Hagenes etc. Oh well.
So here are a few thoughts about my team this year!
As I mentioned I took again a bit the conservative route this year with all of my picks above 220 points are in more than 20 teams this year. If I wouldn´t have made some experiments in the lower cost segment, I would be close to @MADRAZO in the popularity ranking.
I will do the same as other players. Riders I have selected are in bold. Riders I had on my screen but ultimately decided against are in italics. Riders, which are pretty obvious picks in my eyes and where had been said enough already, I am not mentioning.
Evenepoel (1929 points, 12 teams): For me, he just got too expensive in the end and there were too many options in the middle price segment. Also his announced schedule is at least in the beginning not optimal in CQ terms. He can still gain like 3000 points, but he also has to do this at least, if the players who picked him, want to fight for the top ranks.
Lipowitz (1065 points, 3 teams): It´s no secret, that he is my favourite rider. Had him last year and because of this, I could enjoy his breakthrough even more. His price (because of his no scoring in 2025 after the tour) made him still an option for this year. Before Bora announced his schedule, he was even in my team. But what kicked him out was the announced schedule for him. Very few races before the tour and these even together with Remco and/or Roglic. So even if he would have a fantastic season, 1500 points seems to be the limit, so to be still competitive here in this game, I decided not to include him.
Seixas (661 points, 73 teams): As I said, I am surprised, that he is really the most popular one. He was never in question for me, as I really want to follow and cheer for him, that he can compete with Pogacar one day and stops the boredem, that we are currently facing sometimes, but I would still say, that it´s not an absolutely given, that he will score like 1000 points, which is the minimum for him to be a good pick.
O'Connor (563 points, 28 teams) and Enric Mas (560 points, 27 teams): The decicion in the end was O'Connor and Mas or Lipowitz. In the end I decided for O'Connor and Mas because of their announced schedule. Both are riding the giro and O'Connor is also in for some early seson points in Australia. Mas at a later stage will ride the vuelta without having the tour in his legs and against a potentially not so good field. So I think both will earn at least between 800- 1000 points with a bit of upward potential still.
Tiberi (555 points, 16 teams): I also considered him instead of one out of O'Connor or Mas. In the end his inconsistency and also because he is targeting the tour and not the giro was the reason, why I decided against him.
Whiten Philipsen (459 points, 44 teams): About this one I was not so sure. He is already pretty expensive. To be a good pick, he has to progress even more and he also needs to have a good schedule, which is not announced until now. But a lot of potential is of course there, so I decided myself for him.
Nys (423 points, 46 teams): Had him during his breakthrough season in 2024 and leaved luckily out in 2025 also I also considered him. The thing with him is, that he only rides a part of the season. But when he rides the right races, he is normally always up there for good points. So I included him this year again. Decicion would of course be much easier, if he would ride more parts of he clasic season though.
Küng (433 points, 8 teams): To leave him out was also not the easiest decicion. Basically his age and the risk, that he already had his peak behind him were the reasons to exclude him. But of course with his new team potential for 1000 points is there. So a bit risky not too include him, but the same occurs for the riders, which i picked.
van Gils (362 points, 58 teams): Different than a lot of other players here, he was not an absolute must pick for me during the whole process. Until the schedules were announced, I thought, that the big risk here is, that he will end up in a lot of one-day races as domestique for Evenepoel. But after his early season schedule came out, he was than of course also a must-have for me.
Omrzel (345 points, 19 teams): He was the one, I thought about switching with van Gils or Tarling for a few weeks. Also a very interesting young rider, which could have a breakthrough this year. Decicion against him was in the end his already pretty high price and other more secure options.
Tarling (328 points, 36 teams): Well if he has a normal season, he will alone with his time trial points come into profit. The World TT this year is also flat, so he can score there. Question is of course his upward point potential, which is not a given. But even if he only scores his TT points, he will not become a desaster pick, so a bit a secure pick.
Gaudu (315 points, 37 teams): Also a risky one to leave him out yes and his popularity also make me a bit nervous. But again, there were so many options this year, a few of these options, one had to leave out and Gaudu was one of them this year.
Nordhagen (293 points, 22 teams): He could have been better in some races last year, but he is still young and he battled with Seixas and Widar in the U23 races, where he participated. So potential for way more points is there, so I picked him.
Blackmore (277 points, 31 teams): Well didn´t find a lot of news about him, why he didn´t score that much last season, after scoring pretty high in 2024 at a very young age. I included him, because I think the new sponsor will make everything a bit easier for the riders in the team and that again riders like him and also Stephan Williams will be able to come back to there best again.
Cosnefroy (268 points, 64 teams): In my eyes the potentially best pick of the game. He is scheduled for the Hirschi schedule starting in Mallorca. I expect 1500 points from him this season. Let´s see, if he will get those.
Bisiaux (246 points, 21 teams): Missed him last year, which I regreted a bit. He showed great potential in races like Burgos and his price is still ok, so I picked him this season.
Lafay (215 points, 6 teams): He was a really frustrating pick last year until he secured me with his last race in China a Top10 placing. Alone for that one, I had to pick him again. Jokes aside, although he nearly finished his career, I think this guy has still big potential and I think Unibet is a really good team for him to score in this game, if he can really ones have a season without injuries. I am bit surprised, that only 6 teams selected him.
Finn (211 points, 20 teams): He was in one of my final drafts, but kicked him out for Torres in the end, after I saw Torres pre-season schedule and the fact, that Finn will still mostly ride U23 had been reason to exclude him in the end.
Vlasov (209 points, 28 teams): Yes, a bit risky to let him out. But I think the GC ranks in Bora are now pretty full and he will mostly become a domestique at this point of his career. So decicion to let him out.
Brenner (191 points, 9 teams): Had him a few times in this game at the beginning of his career, but left him out in his best season 2024. Because of his crashed he could´nt score that much last year, so I think this year he can be a good pick again.
Jannis Peter (157 points, 1 team): Yes, for this unique pick, I also put in the first name, that everybody knows, about who I am talking about. He won last year a mountain top finish against Uijtdebroeks and LeCerf and that with a Kontinental Team! I read an article, that he wasn´t a full time cyclist still last season with the age of 25, but from this season on he will concentrate himself fully on cycling. Unibet also seems to be a team, where he a rider like him can score good. The next Florian Lipowitz is coming here! You will see!
Steinhauser (86 points, 13 teams): Had a really tough last season with injuries and for the last part of the season borreosis. So basically only could show in UAE and as a riro as domestique a bit, what he is capable of. I think he is a good rider with potential up to 500 points, if he has a normal season. So easy decicion for me to include him. Nice surprise, that he is only in 13 teams.
Kockelmann (51 points, 12 teams): Well he won a stage in the tour of luxemburg. I still didn´t have that much young sprinters in my team, so I thought why not him. Together with Hobbs he is basically the only young cheap sprinter. So let´s hopw, that one of these two will turn to be the next Brennan or Magnier.
Biesterbos (51 points, 4 teams): This one is of course together with Jannis Peter the reason, why I am not at the highest place in the popularity ranking. To be honest I don´t know more than his results about him, but he was second at the Gravel World Championships and he also won a Prologue in Sibiu, while riding for a Continental team. Of course Gravel is a different one to Road Racing, but also guys, who had been good in Cross like van der Poel, van Aert, Nys and del Grosso also turned out to be really good road racer. Gravel riding is even closer to Road Racing than Cross, so I think for 51 points this guy is definetly worth the risk. And I am also really happy, that he is really rare.
Jakobsen (11 points, 44 teams): Well in other years with less obvious picks, I think I would still have taken him just to minimize the risk, when the in my eyes 10% possibility occurs, that he will get back to his best, but this year, there was really no space left in my team, so I left him out. Of course a bit risky, but thats part of the game.
As I mentioned I took again a bit the conservative route this year with all of my picks above 220 points are in more than 20 teams this year. If I wouldn´t have made some experiments in the lower cost segment, I would be close to @MADRAZO in the popularity ranking.
I will do the same as other players. Riders I have selected are in bold. Riders I had on my screen but ultimately decided against are in italics. Riders, which are pretty obvious picks in my eyes and where had been said enough already, I am not mentioning.
Evenepoel (1929 points, 12 teams): For me, he just got too expensive in the end and there were too many options in the middle price segment. Also his announced schedule is at least in the beginning not optimal in CQ terms. He can still gain like 3000 points, but he also has to do this at least, if the players who picked him, want to fight for the top ranks.
Lipowitz (1065 points, 3 teams): It´s no secret, that he is my favourite rider. Had him last year and because of this, I could enjoy his breakthrough even more. His price (because of his no scoring in 2025 after the tour) made him still an option for this year. Before Bora announced his schedule, he was even in my team. But what kicked him out was the announced schedule for him. Very few races before the tour and these even together with Remco and/or Roglic. So even if he would have a fantastic season, 1500 points seems to be the limit, so to be still competitive here in this game, I decided not to include him.
Seixas (661 points, 73 teams): As I said, I am surprised, that he is really the most popular one. He was never in question for me, as I really want to follow and cheer for him, that he can compete with Pogacar one day and stops the boredem, that we are currently facing sometimes, but I would still say, that it´s not an absolutely given, that he will score like 1000 points, which is the minimum for him to be a good pick.
O'Connor (563 points, 28 teams) and Enric Mas (560 points, 27 teams): The decicion in the end was O'Connor and Mas or Lipowitz. In the end I decided for O'Connor and Mas because of their announced schedule. Both are riding the giro and O'Connor is also in for some early seson points in Australia. Mas at a later stage will ride the vuelta without having the tour in his legs and against a potentially not so good field. So I think both will earn at least between 800- 1000 points with a bit of upward potential still.
Tiberi (555 points, 16 teams): I also considered him instead of one out of O'Connor or Mas. In the end his inconsistency and also because he is targeting the tour and not the giro was the reason, why I decided against him.
Whiten Philipsen (459 points, 44 teams): About this one I was not so sure. He is already pretty expensive. To be a good pick, he has to progress even more and he also needs to have a good schedule, which is not announced until now. But a lot of potential is of course there, so I decided myself for him.
Nys (423 points, 46 teams): Had him during his breakthrough season in 2024 and leaved luckily out in 2025 also I also considered him. The thing with him is, that he only rides a part of the season. But when he rides the right races, he is normally always up there for good points. So I included him this year again. Decicion would of course be much easier, if he would ride more parts of he clasic season though.
Küng (433 points, 8 teams): To leave him out was also not the easiest decicion. Basically his age and the risk, that he already had his peak behind him were the reasons to exclude him. But of course with his new team potential for 1000 points is there. So a bit risky not too include him, but the same occurs for the riders, which i picked.
van Gils (362 points, 58 teams): Different than a lot of other players here, he was not an absolute must pick for me during the whole process. Until the schedules were announced, I thought, that the big risk here is, that he will end up in a lot of one-day races as domestique for Evenepoel. But after his early season schedule came out, he was than of course also a must-have for me.
Omrzel (345 points, 19 teams): He was the one, I thought about switching with van Gils or Tarling for a few weeks. Also a very interesting young rider, which could have a breakthrough this year. Decicion against him was in the end his already pretty high price and other more secure options.
Tarling (328 points, 36 teams): Well if he has a normal season, he will alone with his time trial points come into profit. The World TT this year is also flat, so he can score there. Question is of course his upward point potential, which is not a given. But even if he only scores his TT points, he will not become a desaster pick, so a bit a secure pick.
Gaudu (315 points, 37 teams): Also a risky one to leave him out yes and his popularity also make me a bit nervous. But again, there were so many options this year, a few of these options, one had to leave out and Gaudu was one of them this year.
Nordhagen (293 points, 22 teams): He could have been better in some races last year, but he is still young and he battled with Seixas and Widar in the U23 races, where he participated. So potential for way more points is there, so I picked him.
Blackmore (277 points, 31 teams): Well didn´t find a lot of news about him, why he didn´t score that much last season, after scoring pretty high in 2024 at a very young age. I included him, because I think the new sponsor will make everything a bit easier for the riders in the team and that again riders like him and also Stephan Williams will be able to come back to there best again.
Cosnefroy (268 points, 64 teams): In my eyes the potentially best pick of the game. He is scheduled for the Hirschi schedule starting in Mallorca. I expect 1500 points from him this season. Let´s see, if he will get those.
Bisiaux (246 points, 21 teams): Missed him last year, which I regreted a bit. He showed great potential in races like Burgos and his price is still ok, so I picked him this season.
Lafay (215 points, 6 teams): He was a really frustrating pick last year until he secured me with his last race in China a Top10 placing. Alone for that one, I had to pick him again. Jokes aside, although he nearly finished his career, I think this guy has still big potential and I think Unibet is a really good team for him to score in this game, if he can really ones have a season without injuries. I am bit surprised, that only 6 teams selected him.
Finn (211 points, 20 teams): He was in one of my final drafts, but kicked him out for Torres in the end, after I saw Torres pre-season schedule and the fact, that Finn will still mostly ride U23 had been reason to exclude him in the end.
Vlasov (209 points, 28 teams): Yes, a bit risky to let him out. But I think the GC ranks in Bora are now pretty full and he will mostly become a domestique at this point of his career. So decicion to let him out.
Brenner (191 points, 9 teams): Had him a few times in this game at the beginning of his career, but left him out in his best season 2024. Because of his crashed he could´nt score that much last year, so I think this year he can be a good pick again.
Jannis Peter (157 points, 1 team): Yes, for this unique pick, I also put in the first name, that everybody knows, about who I am talking about. He won last year a mountain top finish against Uijtdebroeks and LeCerf and that with a Kontinental Team! I read an article, that he wasn´t a full time cyclist still last season with the age of 25, but from this season on he will concentrate himself fully on cycling. Unibet also seems to be a team, where he a rider like him can score good. The next Florian Lipowitz is coming here! You will see!
Steinhauser (86 points, 13 teams): Had a really tough last season with injuries and for the last part of the season borreosis. So basically only could show in UAE and as a riro as domestique a bit, what he is capable of. I think he is a good rider with potential up to 500 points, if he has a normal season. So easy decicion for me to include him. Nice surprise, that he is only in 13 teams.
Kockelmann (51 points, 12 teams): Well he won a stage in the tour of luxemburg. I still didn´t have that much young sprinters in my team, so I thought why not him. Together with Hobbs he is basically the only young cheap sprinter. So let´s hopw, that one of these two will turn to be the next Brennan or Magnier.
Biesterbos (51 points, 4 teams): This one is of course together with Jannis Peter the reason, why I am not at the highest place in the popularity ranking. To be honest I don´t know more than his results about him, but he was second at the Gravel World Championships and he also won a Prologue in Sibiu, while riding for a Continental team. Of course Gravel is a different one to Road Racing, but also guys, who had been good in Cross like van der Poel, van Aert, Nys and del Grosso also turned out to be really good road racer. Gravel riding is even closer to Road Racing than Cross, so I think for 51 points this guy is definetly worth the risk. And I am also really happy, that he is really rare.
Jakobsen (11 points, 44 teams): Well in other years with less obvious picks, I think I would still have taken him just to minimize the risk, when the in my eyes 10% possibility occurs, that he will get back to his best, but this year, there was really no space left in my team, so I left him out. Of course a bit risky, but thats part of the game.
- Oct 5, 2010
- 4,289
- 336
- 16,180
I think most people can find other riders in a similar price point that they are more bullish on quite simply. Pelayo Sanchez also cost 5 points. Stephen Williams cost 10 points, then there's all those touted neo-pros worth anywhere in the 0-50 range.
Armchair Cyclist
Moderator
- Mar 22, 2010
- 15,451
- 11,461
- 28,180
Good in 2024 ranking
Riders are (at least for the most part) either picked because they are rapidly improving or because they are considered to be cheap compared to their previous performances. The handiest way of identifying the latter is to compare the cost they scored in the previous year ("This is what they should be capable of") to their price, so maximising the 2024 points. Teams high in this chart are more reliant on established riders bouncing back than on the youngsters.
The Collective Wisdom team would score 18922 and be placed 9th.
The most Bounceback dependent team possible (On the tab marked PopTeam2 on Skidmark's spreadsheet) would be:
with a 2024 score of 26864. There are two unpicked riders in that group (Cepeda and Van Asbroeck), and it would have a popularity score of 973, coming in around 50th for popularity (inexact, as it is not contributing to the popularity of riders)
Riders are (at least for the most part) either picked because they are rapidly improving or because they are considered to be cheap compared to their previous performances. The handiest way of identifying the latter is to compare the cost they scored in the previous year ("This is what they should be capable of") to their price, so maximising the 2024 points. Teams high in this chart are more reliant on established riders bouncing back than on the youngsters.
The Collective Wisdom team would score 18922 and be placed 9th.
The most Bounceback dependent team possible (On the tab marked PopTeam2 on Skidmark's spreadsheet) would be:
| HIRSCHI Marc |
| O'CONNOR Ben |
| WILLIAMS Stephen |
| COSNEFROY Benoit |
| VLASOV Aleksandr |
| RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos |
| VAN GILS Maxim |
| ZINGLE Axel |
| VAN EETVELT Lennert |
| MAS NICOLAU Enric |
| MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe |
| LANDA MEANA Mikel |
| TRATNIK Jan |
| BETTIOL Alberto |
| LAPORTE Christophe |
| POLITT Nils |
| VERMAERKE Kevin |
| PITHIE Laurence |
| BLACKMORE Joseph |
| KELDERMAN Wilco |
| MOHORIC Matej |
| KRIJNSEN Jelte |
| VANSEVENANT Mauri |
| THIJSSEN Gerben |
| DE KLEIJN Arvid |
| CEPEDA HERNANDEZ Jefferson Alveiro |
| POOLE Max |
| VALTER Attila |
| TAMINIAUX Lionel |
| SANCHEZ MAYO Pelayo |
| VAN ASBROECK Tom |
| BURGAUDEAU Mathieu |
| HIRT Jan |
with a 2024 score of 26864. There are two unpicked riders in that group (Cepeda and Van Asbroeck), and it would have a popularity score of 973, coming in around 50th for popularity (inexact, as it is not contributing to the popularity of riders)
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- Aug 29, 2011
- 3,735
- 2,129
- 16,680
- Aug 29, 2011
- 3,735
- 2,129
- 16,680
- Sep 26, 2020
- 25,460
- 28,068
- 23,180
I had him in the team I initially submitted, but I swapped him out in the end. I didn't like that he has never really had a good season, for various reasons, but for 5 points he could easily prove to be worth the gamble. It's not like all the guys I chose instead are likely to do way better.
Armchair Cyclist
Moderator
- Mar 22, 2010
- 15,451
- 11,461
- 28,180
I'll just do a short comment on my two unique picks and the two only chosen by one other manager:
Unique:
Timo de Jong: recency bias perhaps? But 120 is a small price for how good he looked in parts of last season
Davide Ballerini: I do have soft spot for Davide. A slightly better calendar this year and he could double his haul
Shared with one other manager:
Laurenz Rex: QS going back to their roots and focusing more on the classic. Rex _might_ be able to get a lot of points, but it's also a crowded field of semi-captains with Stuyven, van Baarle, Lampaert
Stan DeWulf: he can't have such an unlucky season again?
Unique:
Timo de Jong: recency bias perhaps? But 120 is a small price for how good he looked in parts of last season
Davide Ballerini: I do have soft spot for Davide. A slightly better calendar this year and he could double his haul
Shared with one other manager:
Laurenz Rex: QS going back to their roots and focusing more on the classic. Rex _might_ be able to get a lot of points, but it's also a crowded field of semi-captains with Stuyven, van Baarle, Lampaert
Stan DeWulf: he can't have such an unlucky season again?
- May 5, 2010
- 51,957
- 30,478
- 28,180
I'm not saying I have already started working on my team for that game.
I'm also not saying that I haven't.
- Dec 28, 2010
- 4,215
- 3,215
- 21,180
Going to do a gigantic 'replying to all sorts of things I found interesting' post this time around as well. Good luck getting through it all!
Probably a tidy enough profit without really making a huge difference either way.
Adria is another Movistar signing who could be good, alongside Garcia Pierna, but was a bit too expensive. Romo is also way too expensive, but he should continue his rise this season with how many injuries he had in 2025.
I don't actually believe in his prophet abilities. So the Almeida pick was 100% down to my own reasoning. There is for sure risk involved in picking Morgado, but with how the CQ landscape is this year I don't trust myself to out-analyze everyone, so I'm giving myself some opportunities to be lucky as well. Christen should be good too, and had his share of bad fortune, but as I said last year he is lacking the sprint to be a proper Hirschi, and Christen's personality and racing style is a bit of a magnet for conflict, which could potentially also have an effect somewhere.
My pool of riders that I picked from in my spreadsheet was well over 100 riders. And while a few of them were chucked on there in the beginning and then never thought much more of, I'd say I did the full research treatment on the vast majority of them. But then I don't have any GT route writeups stealing my time!
I'm not sure it's such a drawback. I don't have any particular preferred schedule for this game set in stone, so I judge on a case-by-case basis, and for Seixas I actually think a Tour schedule is good. Allows a strong peak early in the year and another one around WC/Lombardia. If he targeted the Vuelta, there aren't that many extra points to be gained in the early summer as he would probably do Dauphine in both cases. I think he is good enough to score well almost everywhere, and while he might score more in the Vuelta than the Tour, I like the freshness that the Tour schedule potentially gives elsewhere.
Didn't mention him in my team post, but Bjerg is another Dane I was looking at. I noticed the same upsides as you, but I also think he still has to do too much donkey work for me to be totally comfortable with having him. That 4th in RVV from 2024 was a bit of a lure though, along with a possible good result in NC/Tour of Denmark.
I could have written exactly the same about these three guys, that I also looked at. Except I didn't pick Crabbe, like you did. Your reasons against picking him weighed a bit more for me.
It's quite funny how you skipped him when he would have been your cheapest rider, but pick him when he's the most expensive. But you're right that one cannot miss out even if he's not the absolute safest of picks.
You might actually be right! Were it not for the abundance of good picks in his price range, I for sure would have picked Higuita. Prime Astana farming candidate now that his stock has fallen a bit. Was out with injury for a long time last year and then had a pretty good Tour.
This is getting way worse than skidmark's Grosu fetish!
I see Vacek has been picked quite a few times, and while he is indeed mightily strong, I just don't see the value in him or Simmons with what the alternatives are in that price range. As you say, things are crowded at Lidl-Trek. Vacek will be Pedersen's donkey a few too many times for comfort, I think.
My eyes!!
I actually think he's going to be one of your least significant picks.
Probably a tidy enough profit without really making a huge difference either way.Surprised that @EvansIsTheBest didn't pick him again after his hype for him last year. I looked quite long and hard at Isidore, but I just couldn't see enough signs that he was actually gonna be really good despite some improvement late in the season. I was really trying to find a good Coupe de France farmer at Decathlon now that Godon, Tronchon and Cosnefroy have all left, but Gautherat was too expensive and Isidore and Labrosse didn't fill me with enough confidence. L'hote is intriguing and might be the best bet, but I didn't take the gamble there either.
While he might not win the Giro, I did actually consider him quite strongly for a moment. He's the perennial under-the-radar guy, and he looked really really good in the Vuelta. Not really that far off Vingegaard and Almeida. Let's hope the rematch goes better for him!
All of these were guys I was a bit tempted by. Especially Eulalio I too have a good feeling about. And Gaffuri is the kind of pick I usually love to make.
Adria is another Movistar signing who could be good, alongside Garcia Pierna, but was a bit too expensive. Romo is also way too expensive, but he should continue his rise this season with how many injuries he had in 2025.
I've heard whispers that this unknown youngster has incredible untapped potential.
I agree. And you might have just re-ignited an idea I've had for quite some time ...
Just to be clear, the Mou thing last year was a joke.
I don't actually believe in his prophet abilities. So the Almeida pick was 100% down to my own reasoning. There is for sure risk involved in picking Morgado, but with how the CQ landscape is this year I don't trust myself to out-analyze everyone, so I'm giving myself some opportunities to be lucky as well. Christen should be good too, and had his share of bad fortune, but as I said last year he is lacking the sprint to be a proper Hirschi, and Christen's personality and racing style is a bit of a magnet for conflict, which could potentially also have an effect somewhere.Just to be clear again, I didn't actually pick Van Poppel. You might have noticed that, but the way you worded the entire post made me a bit unsure.
This is music to my ears.
Van Wilder was one of the riders I immediately put on my shortlist when I started working on my team. I quickly decided I didn't quite trust his consistency, but I can definitely see why he is an attractive pick.
Feels like all I've done is to pick on your reasoning in this post, but I don't find it that incredible how G-West isn't more popular. He's always been a bit suspect in the mountains, with the Giro field being weak and his Tour de France fringe top ten fueled by the gravel stage breakaway. So while he is an interesting (but not so young) prospect, he is for sure not a guarantee to really bring in the huge points everywhere and he's not cheap. And again, Lidl-Trek is very stacked in his department. He'll probably get the Giro, but he needs much more to be a good pick. Finally, his late announcement probably meant that not a lot of players were prepared to redesign their team around him.
- May 9, 2010
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No, not really. Kubis would be a major gamble. I don't really see the upside there. I think he's more likely to score less points this year than he is to score more. Christen could easily work out well, but he has to win on pure strength or tactics because his sprint isn't very good and neither is his time trialing, so he'll leave a lot out points out there. It's hard for such a rider to score a lot of points - at least points enough to make him a good pick on this game.
- May 9, 2010
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Haha, yeah, I actually thought the exact same thing once I had posted: that scoring wise he probably won't make that big of a difference either way - but he'll be the one I will have to root for all year, and in that sense one of my lost defining riders. If that makes any sense.I actually think he's going to be one of your least significant picks.
- Sep 20, 2017
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For me, the main issue with Seixas doing the Tour would be the massive media storm it would bring on. Not impossible that he would crack under the resulting pressure. Also not convinced he can manage three separate form peaks this early in his career. All in all, doing the Vuelta feels like it would be a little safer.
Obviously he's an exciting pick and I had pencilled him in after the gravel Worlds, but I decided against him when Picnic talked about using this year to figure out where his potential is highest coupled with he himself saying that he wants to finish his studies over the course of the year.
Shocked that I'm that high up when I have both Seixas and AWP!
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I hope Skjelmose can do a bit better in the one-week races first and foremost.
In Ardennes I think Lidl just want to have numbers and many riders in the finale. Similar to their cobbles squad with MP, Milan, Vacek... and so on.
They have team for all fronts now. Starting to rival a team like UAE in depth.
I think there will be opportunities for everyone.
What matters is if Skjelmose performs to the best of his abilities imo... then he should be at the pointy end of races. I tried not to overthink it and just saw it as a good opportunity, when many may might be finding it hard to include him is how I reasoned. Just picking a very good rider at a fair value, who has the potential to have a really good season if things goes his way. We will see.
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- Mar 19, 2009
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Just a few additional comments:
Not at all disappointed, but surprised that my two rarest picks are both sprinters at Groupama.
I get that not many have seen the light in little brother Milan yet (but BigBro didn't quite ring many bells before he suddenly did), but is it just the general sprinter-aversion that kept people from considering Penhoét?'
In other news, I'm getting a bit anxious to see most of my rarer picks being either washed-up sprinters (Gav, Ackermann & Welsford) and/or older guys (Van Baarle & Bouwman), because those picks were the ones I felt the least happy about.
A couple of words about some of my deliberate omissions:
Enric Mas & Stephen Williams were both cut from my team after reading news about their slow recovery and general pessimistic views).
I also cut two fellow Danes I really would have loved to include:
AWT simply because I didn't like the look of his early schedule. I think he will be in a learning/supporting role too much this year, but the kid has obvious skyhigh potential.
And like the five that picked him, I also read the Foldager interview and included him in my early draft, but then during the reshuffling had to take him off after realising I really don't see him having the potential to "point-farm" as much as he personally would like. I'm actually more confident in the cheaper Ackermann being a good point farmer for Jayco.
Lastly I would really love for Lafay to shine at Unibet, but just like with Leo Hayter, Adrian Costa, Dumoulin a.o., when the desire to ride is fading, the next time the "boat is rocking" it's very easy to get off. The potential is high, but the risk of an almost no-show is definitely there.
I regret not being aware of Arvid De Kleijn, and I actually agree that Morgado could turn out to be a very crucial pick this year, even though I totally forgot about him when pondering about who this years Marc Hirschi- farmer could be.
Not at all disappointed, but surprised that my two rarest picks are both sprinters at Groupama.
I get that not many have seen the light in little brother Milan yet (but BigBro didn't quite ring many bells before he suddenly did), but is it just the general sprinter-aversion that kept people from considering Penhoét?'
In other news, I'm getting a bit anxious to see most of my rarer picks being either washed-up sprinters (Gav, Ackermann & Welsford) and/or older guys (Van Baarle & Bouwman), because those picks were the ones I felt the least happy about.
A couple of words about some of my deliberate omissions:
Enric Mas & Stephen Williams were both cut from my team after reading news about their slow recovery and general pessimistic views).
I also cut two fellow Danes I really would have loved to include:
AWT simply because I didn't like the look of his early schedule. I think he will be in a learning/supporting role too much this year, but the kid has obvious skyhigh potential.
And like the five that picked him, I also read the Foldager interview and included him in my early draft, but then during the reshuffling had to take him off after realising I really don't see him having the potential to "point-farm" as much as he personally would like. I'm actually more confident in the cheaper Ackermann being a good point farmer for Jayco.
Lastly I would really love for Lafay to shine at Unibet, but just like with Leo Hayter, Adrian Costa, Dumoulin a.o., when the desire to ride is fading, the next time the "boat is rocking" it's very easy to get off. The potential is high, but the risk of an almost no-show is definitely there.
I regret not being aware of Arvid De Kleijn, and I actually agree that Morgado could turn out to be a very crucial pick this year, even though I totally forgot about him when pondering about who this years Marc Hirschi- farmer could be.
I'm glad you summarized my exact thought process (aside from the door of the maze swinging towards the path of taking Evenepoel for me) on 1000+ riders because I'm already using all my time to process teams and do my own team writeup. But yeah, that's basically exactly what I thought as well - Skjelmose a good option at the price but worries about being overshadowed, Remco with 2700-3500 range to be a good to great pick, Philipsen a better choice than maybe first glance but ultimately there were better picks to make a team, and Brennan maybe a risk not to take but also maybe will have points increase muted by taking on the real big races.
Some of your thoughts on your riders I could respond to at length, but I barely have time to read through the thread so I'll put a pin in it and come back if I can!
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Penhoët was on my shortlist, he's definitely better than his score and to an extent his level was also better than his score last year. Ultimately I didn't go for him because there were enough other options that I either judged to be safer or thought had a higher ceiling, but he makes perfect sense as a pick.
I also have both and my confidence in the picks is bolstered by the knowledge they have been selected by the defending champion 😁.For me it is not only the no-Remco situation, but that Van Wilder is actually a very good rider. His TT in Rwanda was truly excellent imo and a bit of a breakthrough. Shame he crashed and injured himself right after that.
He also can climb and his TT-ability gives him a good chance in the one-week races especially. However, I would not be surprised if can achieve something in a GT as well in the future. Plus, being able to score in one-day races is another thing points could come from with him. Still young-ish with a lot of experience at this point, with maybe his best years still ahead of him.
We will see how it goes.
I have both
Van Wilder looks like he has the potential to do top 10s in the Ardennes this year as team leader.
- Oct 5, 2010
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Well even if you don't win the game, you are the early leader for the most entertaining team breakdown of the season! Welcome to the game
- Nov 16, 2013
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Was Bettiol the mystery Italian you alluded to last night?This is getting way worse than skidmark's Grosu fetish!
I see Vacek has been picked quite a few times, and while he is indeed mightily strong, I just don't see the value in him or Simmons with what the alternatives are in that price range. As you say, things are crowded at Lidl-Trek. Vacek will be Pedersen's donkey a few too many times for comfort, I think.
Feels like all I've done is to pick on your reasoning in this post, but I don't find it that incredible how G-West isn't more popular. He's always been a bit suspect in the mountains, with the Giro field being weak and his Tour de France fringe top ten fueled by the gravel stage breakaway. So while he is an interesting (but not so young) prospect, he is for sure not a guarantee to really bring in the huge points everywhere and he's not cheap. And again, Lidl-Trek is very stacked in his department. He'll probably get the Giro, but he needs much more to be a good pick. Finally, his late announcement probably meant that not a lot of players were prepared to redesign their team around him.
Vacek is better than Simmons I would say (at least when it comes to points scoring) and with his TT he should be able to win Renewi Tour (if Söderqvist didn't do it first) and other such races.
UAE are showing these days that it's not necessarily a bad thing to be on a crowded team, and a good Vacek could top 10 the cobbled classics even if Mads Pedersen is ahead of him. Also, with Stuyven going out, Vacek should be second in command in those races and he was completely out of sorts during that period last year so there is a lot to be gained.
And Gee was really consistent all (half) year with good GC results in all races, so it wasn't only the weak Giro that accounted for his points.
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