I just searched for this post to see what I wrote before the Tour and how that turned out and someone I had not on my list at all is Richie Porte. I would not have expected him in the top5!I very much appreciate your post as I can now use it as an orientation to think of my own ranking.
I think I'll go for this: (at the moment, changes by the minute due to my bipolar heart and injuries and sicknesses everywhere)
I'm not giving anyone else a chance. You don't know who I am so you can't come to my house and hang up a poster "Haha".
- Roglic: He looked clearly the strongest. Best team. Profile fits him like a glove in my opinion. I don't worry about his peak, he was the no1 rider at the end of the last year because he was the best in that year, not just for two weeks. Only thing to worry: his injuries.
- Bernal: A little bit of back pain should not hurt too much if you can win the Tour. But what have Ineos done during the break? Have they prepared him well enough? He still (lol, like he's 35) has the quality and a very good, even if not the best, team. With the focus on Jumbo he could even profit if Ineos play it well and react to the situation.
- Dumoulin: Has the quality, the team and strategy could be his super-power. PdBF should be his if he wants it.
- Pinot: Did not look at his absolute best and his team looks weak for the mountains if Gaudu can't bring it on. Not the no1 for the time trial at the end. But he's strong enough to win. (And he's probably the one who "wants it the most".)
- Buchmann: Would need all things to fall into the right place. If Ineos, Jumbo and Pinot eat each other up he could sneak to the win. Best sneaker in the world. Looks so harmless, yet was consistently there in the last Tour and the Dauphiné until his crash. Injuries may have impacted his training, but not too bad. Has Kämna.
- López: Very, very explosive and that could be his huge advantage if it is a very controlled race where it's all about some seconds in the end. He would have to be consistent though and needs the others to fail.
- Pogacar: Very decently explosive. Can be good in the third weak. Tactics are his. Team does not look too bad. Not one of the top favourites, but not someone I would absolutely rule out. Some snow on the Grand Colombier in September?
- Sivakov: Looks actually more like a 2nd Ineos-option to me than Carapaz.
- Martin: I don't want to hype him, he's certainly not my no1 favourite. But he was 12th with Wanty. Is in form, no back pains, no knee pains. That's more than can be said of most. Besides I believe in people of his age being in the right age to win something big for the first time.
- Martínez: His beard makes him the ideal Alaphilippe of 2020. Meaning yellow for two weaks, then disappearing. His team, in this form, is a liability. (Okay, that's mean.) Otherwise... why not...
- Quintana: Who knows what to get from Quintana? Ever?
- Landa: I used to be kind of a fan... then I wondered if his teams had their good reasons to never trust him completely as a leader... some guys look great as domestiques, where they can surprise you all the time with their strengths and you won't look too closely when they are not having a great day. Dunno...
- Bardet: Did not look great. But certainly looked like he was going in the right direction.
Okay, Joker: Wout van Aert. If Roglic and Dumoulin crash in the first week and this super-team works for super-van Aert and everyone is eating up their next man and nobody looks at this guy who wins two stages, gets bonus seconds, alaphilippes his way through and just does not bonk, this can happen.