Sasquatch said:
Nice work on the Tour so far Sasquatch.
Just interested in your reasoning for saying Hushovd for the Green. Given that none of the remaining sprints are after categorised climbs I would have thought Petacchi was a sure thing. I don't think Hushovd has beaten Petacchi in a bunch sprint this Tour (could be wrong about that).
Cheers Barb. Been a good Tour.
The way I see it is that Petacchi has never made it this far in the Tour. How will his body respond to all the climbing he's done? Hushovd on the otherhand gets stronger as the Tour progresses. Sprinters can lose their mojo - Hushovd can keep his. I'm basing the bet on I don't believe Petacchi will have the good legs to be able to beat Hushovd in bunch sprints.
We'll soon see - but that's what I'm basing it on.
The way I see it is that Petacchi has never made it this far in the Tour. How will his body respond to all the climbing he's done? Hushovd on the otherhand gets stronger as the Tour progresses. Sprinters can lose their mojo - Hushovd can keep his. I'm basing the bet on I don't believe Petacchi will have the good legs to be able to beat Hushovd in bunch sprints.
We'll soon see - but that's what I'm basing it on.
Sasquatch said:
Fair enough. No questioning Thor's ability to finish a Tour strongly.
In response I'd say Petacchi has won the points competition (and had late stage wins) at both the Giro and the Vuelta.
Also, I thought rather than making assertions I'd get off my behind and check their bunch sprint results this Tour:
Stage 1 – Petacchi 1st, Hushovd 3rd
Stage 4 – Petacchi 1st, Hushovd 9th
Stage 5 – Hushovd 5th, Petacchi 8th
Stage 6 – Petacchi 3rd, Hushovd 10th
Stage 10 – Petacchi 10th, Hushovd 11th
Stage 11 – Petacchi 2nd, Hushovd 7th
Stage 13 – Petacchi 3rd, Hushovd 8th
The only time Hushovd beat Petacchi (Stage 5) was when Petacchi was badly blocked and lost all momentum just when he was winding it up.
I've had a big bet (by my standards) on Petacchi to win green and your selection of Hushovd gives me concern (considering your very good record this Tour).
I hope you are wrong on this one!
I was looking at a few head to heads tomorrow and greatly appreciate thoughts of others on these. Have loved this tour but my cycling knowledge is limited compared to some on here anyway. How much can you read into performances in prologue. Are cyclists who perform well in prologue usually good in timetrial also? Anyway Here are selections I am thinking of going for and rationale behind my thinking
Hicapie versus Monfort. Monfort at evens. They are both beside each other on gc (60th and 61st respectively). Monfort was 1;20 quicker than Hincapie last year on the timetrial. In prologue this year Monfort was around 13 seconds quicker
Bert Grabsch versus Gerraint Thomas. Thomas at evens. Thomas came 5th in prologue versus Grabsch's 76th placing. I think Thomas has had a good tour and had a very good start to the tour. Perhaps he peaked too early in the race but I think he will want to go out on a high
Bradley Wiggins versus Janez Brajkovic. Brajkovic at 8/5. Both have had woeful tours. Bit of value in Brajkovic at 8/5 as even though Wiggins has targeted this his form is too poor. Brajkovic was 21 seconds in prologue.
Hicapie versus Monfort. Monfort at evens. They are both beside each other on gc (60th and 61st respectively). Monfort was 1;20 quicker than Hincapie last year on the timetrial. In prologue this year Monfort was around 13 seconds quicker
Bert Grabsch versus Gerraint Thomas. Thomas at evens. Thomas came 5th in prologue versus Grabsch's 76th placing. I think Thomas has had a good tour and had a very good start to the tour. Perhaps he peaked too early in the race but I think he will want to go out on a high
Bradley Wiggins versus Janez Brajkovic. Brajkovic at 8/5. Both have had woeful tours. Bit of value in Brajkovic at 8/5 as even though Wiggins has targeted this his form is too poor. Brajkovic was 21 seconds in prologue.
The prologue means nothing, after 3 weeks of racing the people with still some juice in their legs go fast, its very simple. Its only hard to know who those guys are 
. Ofcourse most match-ups are between riders who are close to each other in gc, bookies aint stupid. If you look at the result of the last TT in all big Tours its always the GC guys that go for glory. Its even hard for Cancellara to win a TT after 3 weeks, that says enough. If they do such a TT the first day he beats them with at least 2 minutes
Hincapie versus Monfort.
Monfort is a rider that always goes full, but same can be said about Hincapie. Dont forget Monfort became father during this Tour and he's mind isnt on racing!! He had his worst Tour ever. In 2008 in the last TT Hincapie was 8th, Monfort 24th. For me this bet is 50/50.
Bert Grabsch versus Gerraint Thomas.
Bradley Wiggins versus Janez Brajkovic
I think both youngsters come out of this Tour like boiled chickens, all freshness gone.
Sanchez to keep his 3th place at 3.75 is interesting, in La Vuelta samuel did some amazing last TT's. In 2009 second and in 2007 he won ahead of the winner of that Vuelta ... Mister Menchov. Odds are wrong, if thats enough to win the bet is another thing.
. Ofcourse most match-ups are between riders who are close to each other in gc, bookies aint stupid. If you look at the result of the last TT in all big Tours its always the GC guys that go for glory. Its even hard for Cancellara to win a TT after 3 weeks, that says enough. If they do such a TT the first day he beats them with at least 2 minutes Hincapie versus Monfort.
Monfort is a rider that always goes full, but same can be said about Hincapie. Dont forget Monfort became father during this Tour and he's mind isnt on racing!! He had his worst Tour ever. In 2008 in the last TT Hincapie was 8th, Monfort 24th. For me this bet is 50/50.
Bert Grabsch versus Gerraint Thomas.
Bradley Wiggins versus Janez Brajkovic
I think both youngsters come out of this Tour like boiled chickens, all freshness gone.
Sanchez to keep his 3th place at 3.75 is interesting, in La Vuelta samuel did some amazing last TT's. In 2009 second and in 2007 he won ahead of the winner of that Vuelta ... Mister Menchov
. Odds are wrong, if thats enough to win the bet is another thing.
Sasquatch said:
That was the Tourmalet stage
+$145
Sasquatch said:
-120
Stage 19 - See above - +$110
YTD before those stages was $633.35
YTD after those stages is: $768.35
Overall Bets: $1786
YTD when the overall bets cash = +$2554.35
------
The bets tomorrow, if any, will either be Cavendish to win or McEwen top 3.
Nice profit Sasquatch!! Rodriguez top 10 was a bulls eye.
I took Gesink top 10 and RadioShack to win team classification, both won. Then i also had Cav under 4.5 victories ... wich i backed with a bet on over 4.5 at 5.5 when he had 2 stagewins, after Farrar his crash there was no one left who was able to beat him. So what ever the outcome is tomorrow i have break-even, even small profit. Didnt expect all stages that were made for a bunchsprint to end in a bunchsprint tough!
What were the odds before TdF for Peta to win green?
I took Gesink top 10 and RadioShack to win team classification, both won. Then i also had Cav under 4.5 victories ... wich i backed with a bet on over 4.5 at 5.5 when he had 2 stagewins, after Farrar his crash there was no one left who was able to beat him. So what ever the outcome is tomorrow i have break-even, even small profit. Didnt expect all stages that were made for a bunchsprint to end in a bunchsprint tough!
What were the odds before TdF for Peta to win green
?Cheers
Petta was about 10-12 or something like that. Third favourite but in double figures.
Yeah, that Rodriguez one I could have got for 14 but was too late. They realised the mistake and put it down. Damn!
Good work to you too.
Final bets of the Tour
$500 McEwen over Rojas @ $1.75
$300 McEwen over Freire @ $1.57
Petta was about 10-12 or something like that. Third favourite but in double figures.
Yeah, that Rodriguez one I could have got for 14 but was too late. They realised the mistake and put it down. Damn!
Good work to you too.
Final bets of the Tour
$500 McEwen over Rojas @ $1.75
$300 McEwen over Freire @ $1.57
Tour of Denmark - Overall
Taylor Phinney over Hayden Roulston @2.31 Pinnacle
Its now the time to show what you are really worth
Taylor Phinney over Hayden Roulston @2.31 Pinnacle
Its now the time to show what you are really worth
Grrrr he crashed and lost 29 seconds!!Sasquatch said:
Before the race i was arguing with a friend if we could not better take him only in the TT. It would be stupid if he beats Roulston there but loses them elsewhere
.Betting on cycling is like 2% knowledge and 98% luck. I should stay with football, there it's at least 5% knowledge
. Luckily i stayed away from Bos, was a good bet but those bunchsprints, its a lottery.I'd disagree with that. I have had success but I put it down to research. Knowledge may make up a small percentage and luck may make up a bigger percentage but knowing how the riders are thinking, researching everything they have said etc is where it can be beneficial. Imagine if you were a soigneur in a professional team. You would clean up knowing all the inside info.
My Gretsch over Tuft bet should really go down to the time trial.
Anyway tonight in Denmark - Stage 3 or whatever it is.
$250 Fuglsang @ $3.25 - Fuglsang attacked last night with no luck. On a harder finishing circuit, he will attack again and may hold off. If he's serious about winning, he will indeed attack and get an advantage.
Guys like Gretsch etc will beat him in the time trial. He needs the advantage.
$200 Fuglsang over Breschel @ $1.85
Poland - Stage 6
$50 Ballan @ $11
$200 Ballan over Santambrogio @ $1.75
My Gretsch over Tuft bet should really go down to the time trial.
Anyway tonight in Denmark - Stage 3 or whatever it is.
$250 Fuglsang @ $3.25 - Fuglsang attacked last night with no luck. On a harder finishing circuit, he will attack again and may hold off. If he's serious about winning, he will indeed attack and get an advantage.
Guys like Gretsch etc will beat him in the time trial. He needs the advantage.
$200 Fuglsang over Breschel @ $1.85
Poland - Stage 6
$50 Ballan @ $11
$200 Ballan over Santambrogio @ $1.75
I think the problem is that i try to pick out the best bets, not enough numbers. If you take 100 bets you will win bets luckily and lose some unluckily, thats the way it goes in all betting. The last time i've lost some bets that really where a laugh.
The problem in cycling is that even the riders dont know how the legs will be tomorrow
For the short 4th stage i have De Backer over Boeckmans @2.04 pinnacle, it dropped to 1.99 - at bet365 available a 2.00
Boeckmans is the lead out man of Van Stayen, who did amazing the first 2 sprints so that wont chance. De Backer is the lead of van hummel but sprinted 3th in the 2nd stage. Today De Backer finished at just 1 minute, Boeckmans at 18 minutes.
Van Hummel isnt feeling great twitter tells us:
After Stage 2:Wasn't feeling too well today, and because of that i didn't have the legs for a sprint.
After Stage 3: Tough day today. But, i've delivered te guys in the front when it got realy though. I finished in the grupetto, tho.
The problem in cycling is that even the riders dont know how the legs will be tomorrow
For the short 4th stage i have De Backer over Boeckmans @2.04 pinnacle, it dropped to 1.99 - at bet365 available a 2.00
Boeckmans is the lead out man of Van Stayen, who did amazing the first 2 sprints so that wont chance. De Backer is the lead of van hummel but sprinted 3th in the 2nd stage. Today De Backer finished at just 1 minute, Boeckmans at 18 minutes.
Van Hummel isnt feeling great twitter tells us:
After Stage 2:Wasn't feeling too well today, and because of that i didn't have the legs for a sprint.
After Stage 3: Tough day today. But, i've delivered te guys in the front when it got realy though. I finished in the grupetto, tho.
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