The Cycling Betting Thread

[Sasquatch]

No idea

$50 Gilbert over Rodriguez @ $1.62 - Stage 3

 

[larryduff]

Cavendish is 6/1 to win tomorrow which looks decent value.

 

[Sasquatch]

$80 Cav @ $3.50 (Unibet)

 

[Badeend]

Expensive crash

No Tour de Suisse on tv here in Belgium, stupid crisis .

 

[Sasquatch]

$160 Cancellara to win @ $1.60
$40 Monfort over Devolder @ $2.15

 

[santacruz]

Jeez what were the odds on Frank Schleck to win this overall?? lol.

 

[Badeend]

The same odds as Honduras to beat Spain ??

Have created an account on betfair. For straight bets i dont think they can equal the odds on pinnacle but looks good for live-betting, especially laying against a rider is a good option. First bet was a winner so thats always good to start with.
Used San Carlo his bonuscode but didnt get a bonus yet

 

[San Carlo]

The same odds as Honduras to beat Spain ??

Have created an account on betfair. For straight bets i dont think they can equal the odds on pinnacle but looks good for live-betting, especially laying against a rider is a good option. First bet was a winner so thats always good to start with.
Used San Carlo his bonuscode but didnt get a bonus yet

You should get it after you have wagered €30. If not you should complain to Betfair.

After this news:
"Spanish time trial champion Alberto Contador has decided to not to defend his title this year due to recent illness. The two-time Tour de France champion said he began to suffer from the flu last Saturday, and taking part in the event would not be helpful towards securing his third Tour crown.

"It's a pity, but I'm not able to attend the Spanish Championship because I have a touch of the flu. I had wanted to defend the jersey, but unfortunately I am not in good condition and I can't do anything about it,” explained Contador

It might be a good idea to lay Contador to 1.65 on Betfair.

 

[workingclasshero]

put some serious money on frank schleck to win the tour

trying to cover my losses my betting on a sure thing as well (farrar to win green). what with cavendish not on form to complete the thing i think farrar steps up

 

[Zoncolan]

What are the odds on Ricco winning the Italian national RR champs?
Might be worth a few bucks?

 

[Badeend]

Owkey, first bet was €15 so one more bet to go. Odds were better at pinnacle but wanted to try betfair . The more i bet on betfair, the more betfair points i get, the lower my commission, right??

It takes more then the flu to lay Contador .
I'll wait for Wiggins to do a good prologue so all British people start backing him so i can lay him for top 3

 

[Badeend]

Took Cav to wins less then 4.5 stages in the Tour at bet365.
Normally i dont bet at odds around 1.50 but he needs a miracle to achieve that. This Tour is quiet hard, max bunchsprints should be 9. If you keep in mind there is always a breakaway making it to the finish in the last week i dont see more then around 6 sprints to happen. We have the stage to Spa wich could be to hard for Cavendish, we also have the pavé and we have lots of mountains. If you see the results of Cav this year it would be normal if he leaves the Tour after 10 days ... just the feeling i have. When luck isnt on your side its hard to get it back!

 

[Sasquatch]

I've taken the following bets:

Top 10 Finish

$200 Rodriguez @ $9
$100 Kreuziger @ $2.25

Head to Head

$200 Roman Kreuziger over Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ $1.53
$100 Joaquim Rodriguez over Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ $2.10
$100 Andy Schleck over Frank Schleck @ $1.47
$50 Denis Menchov over Cadel Evans @ $2.10

Team Head to Heads

$300 Bbox over Footon @ $1.83

Top Frenchman

$30 Pierre Rolland @ $15

Group Betting

$30 Sanchez to finish ahead of Wiggins, Evans, Armstrong, Basso @ $14

Don't expect the last two to get up, but they are nice value bets.

 

[Sasquatch]

Took Cav to wins less then 4.5 stages in the Tour at bet365.
Normally i dont bet at odds around 1.50 but he needs a miracle to achieve that. This Tour is quiet hard, max bunchsprints should be 9. If you keep in mind there is always a breakaway making it to the finish in the last week i dont see more then around 6 sprints to happen. We have the stage to Spa wich could be to hard for Cavendish, we also have the pavé and we have lots of mountains. If you see the results of Cav this year it would be normal if he leaves the Tour after 10 days ... just the feeling i have. When luck isnt on your side its hard to get it back!

I was looking over 3.5 @ $1.80 but decided not to take it.

 

[Badeend]

Since i took that bet Boonen and Haussler decided not to do the Tour because of their knee-problems but still winning 5 stages or more in a Tour isnt something you do every year. If he wins the first 2 sprints he can get to that number but i think it is better to bet on him on several stages then on an over 3.5 after 3 weeks if you want to back him. You need to keep in mind he also can get sick, break a collarbone, retire in the mountains, ...

Other 2 bets i took before today.
RadioShack to win team classification at 2.00 (Unibet)
Gesink to finish top 10 at 2.10 (bet365)

 

[Big GMaC]

Lay bet on Armstrong?

If he does win and later tests positive and has his title removed what happens?

 

[Badeend]

Lay bet on Armstrong?

If he does win and later tests positive and has his title removed what happens?

Official result after the race stands.

 

[Sasquatch]

Stage 1

$200 Farrar top 3 @ $2
$200 Cavendish to win @ $2.20

I know I have that over 3.5 on Cavendish, but may as well take him when his odds are like they are. If he wins this stage, he'll be 1.70 next stage.

 

[2beeDammed]

Stage 1

$10.00 Robbie McEwen @ $26.00 (Gotta have a go!)

Outright winner

$20.00 Cadel Evans @ $29.00
$10.00 Andy Schleck @ $7.50

Green Jersey

$10.00 Andre Griepel @ $18.00
$10.00 Robie McEwin @ $41.00

King of the Mountains

$10.00 Ivan Basso @ $21.00
$10.00 Frank Schleck @ $26.00

 

[Badeend]

Bunchsprints are such a lottery, once again ...

1 chance for Cav lost, he just loves the smell of fresh asphalt to much this season

 

[Sasquatch]

I'm not phased on the money side of things, otherwise I wouldn't be putting on bets like that.

But I will be putting money on Hushovd for the points jersey if he's still at great odds.

 

[Punter]

Wow that crash did all my stage bets in but at least kept stakes small.

More worrying to me is that I took my biggest bet on Ciolek over Petacchi in the Green Jersey Classification (1/1 and equivalent of around $750 down). The former must have been caught in the crash and is hopefully ok but interested in thoughts on how I sit in this one?

Am banking on Petacchi throwing in the towel at some point - should I be worried yet? (for the record I already am)

 

[Badeend]

The question is: will Peta finish the race??
With so much mountains to come i think the possibility Peta will not finish is much higher then that Ciolek wont reach Paris. Peta never got to Paris before. He quit Giro very early so he should be fresh but i dont think Peta his mind is on green. In 2003 he stopped the day after he won his fourth stage ...

 

[Punter]

Cheers Badeend that was exactly my pogic in taking the bet - I will be watching closely during the mountain stages.

Stage 2 going to be interesting and betting looks wide open

 

[Badeend]

Before the crashes Peta looked very good, Ciolek dropped very early while Peta was still in top 20 at that moment, impressive. Peta is much stronger as we expected. Still doesnt mean he will reach Paris tough.

Gesink probably the only GC-rider that didnt crash ?

Edit: he did crash ... but he's ok. (thank God created twitter )
Edit2: fracture in his ulna, crap!