- Mar 13, 2009
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Sasquatch said:
Van Garderen on twitter yersterday:
Just back from dauphine course recon. Looks like a good course for me. Its now 11:30, start time is 18:30. What to do for 7 hrs?
I find that helpfull
Badeend said:Van Garderen on twitter yersterday:
Just back from dauphine course recon. Looks like a good course for me. Its now 11:30, start time is 18:30. What to do for 7 hrs?
I find that helpfull
I'm following everyone on twitter now hahahaha. If I knew that, it would have been a higher one.
I'm going to spend the next hour searching and following a lot of cyclists. Is there an easy way to know if they are on twitter?
Betfair.
You should check out Betfair. It is a must for cycling betting. Betfair is great for livebetting. And the big advantage is that you can lay odds. So if you put your money on Van Garderen yesterday to 41, you could have layed him on betfair during the prologue for 2, and made a lot of money. If you want a bonus when opening an account you can use this code: 823TZY9Y9
You should check out Betfair. It is a must for cycling betting. Betfair is great for livebetting. And the big advantage is that you can lay odds. So if you put your money on Van Garderen yesterday to 41, you could have layed him on betfair during the prologue for 2, and made a lot of money. If you want a bonus when opening an account you can use this code: 823TZY9Y9
Sasquatch said:
What is wrong with Betfair? Much easier to bet on riders who won't win, than find the winners. That is the big advantage with Betfair. To be able to make money on betting against riders.
Like in the Dauphine today. I know Edvald Boasson Hagen will take it easy in Dauphine. But some people thought he would win today. So I layed him and made some easy money.
San Carlo said:
I don't like betfair. But yes, I do keep that method in the back of my mind, but it's not for me. Anyway I'll do what I'm doing, you do what you're doing. Thanks for the advice with betfair. I have an account there but I haven't used it for 2 years.
In anycase, I know what you're saying about laying is better than picking a winner but head to heads are much better. I've had a lot of success doing the way I'm doing so that's why I'm not going to change methods.
I might do some laying at the TDF! There will be some good blokes to fade.
Laying is very interesting indeed, but never got to the point of opening an account there. I also focus on the match-ups and then pinnacle and bet365 are the only 2 you need.
But like i said for the moment i have some money stuck at paypal ... bwin send me a mail today that they dont except it for security reasons. I did withdraw €320 there and they already dislike me, crap bookie. I see betfair excepts paypal (bet365, pinnacle and unibet doesnt) so thats a way to get my money off my paypal account. What bonus do i get when i use that code when i deposit +/- €150 - €200?
Still have to take a look at Centrebet and Sportingbet!
We all know the skills of the riders but at the end winning or losing a bet often comes down to motivation of the riders, so then twitter gives us an advantage
But like i said for the moment i have some money stuck at paypal ... bwin send me a mail today that they dont except it for security reasons. I did withdraw €320 there and they already dislike me, crap bookie. I see betfair excepts paypal (bet365, pinnacle and unibet doesnt) so thats a way to get my money off my paypal account. What bonus do i get when i use that code when i deposit +/- €150 - €200?
Still have to take a look at Centrebet and Sportingbet!
We all know the skills of the riders but at the end winning or losing a bet often comes down to motivation of the riders, so then twitter gives us an advantage
Dutchwallpaper said:
Looks like they still miss some riders, i'm (only) following 131 riders or teams (and Emily Batty
) and i see several riders they dont have.This is my twitter http://twitter.com/zami313, just add all that i follow to your list
Badeend said:Looks like they still miss some riders, i'm (only) following 131 riders or teams (and Emily Batty
This is my twitter http://twitter.com/zami313, just add all that i follow to your list
131? hahaha
Cheers, will look at it a bit later.
Stage 2 is interesting.
Bennati top 3 is $2, as is Bole. Haedo is 3.50 top 3.
Absolutely no head to heads worth looking at.
I'll back one of those guys top 3 if I do put a bet on at all.
I'm new to betting, and was just checking out bet365. Would it be a safe bet to put my life savings on Contador for overall TdF??
the odds say 4/7, so does that mean if I bet 100 dollars I would be paid 157 dollars if I won? For a total earning of 57 dollars?
what happens to my money if my rider is busted for doping?
I seriously can't picture anyone beating AC.. are his odds going to shoot up to 1/100 or something crazy when the race gets even closer and more people bet? Will my bet remain the same as when it's placed or does it change depending on how many people bet after my bet is placed? Can you bet on people to win the TdF (or any stage race) after the TdF has already started?
oh and what does this mean, on the 365 betting ticket, "Each-way 1/4 1-2-3" ?
thanks!!
the odds say 4/7, so does that mean if I bet 100 dollars I would be paid 157 dollars if I won? For a total earning of 57 dollars?
what happens to my money if my rider is busted for doping?
I seriously can't picture anyone beating AC.. are his odds going to shoot up to 1/100 or something crazy when the race gets even closer and more people bet? Will my bet remain the same as when it's placed or does it change depending on how many people bet after my bet is placed? Can you bet on people to win the TdF (or any stage race) after the TdF has already started?
oh and what does this mean, on the 365 betting ticket, "Each-way 1/4 1-2-3" ?
thanks!!
Yes, you would win $57.
However, my advice to someone else on the Contador subject is the following:
The good thing about Contador being so short is that his odds won't come in that much. Yes, he will probably do the prologue well and be close to the lead, but his odds will stay roughly the same.
Due to this fact and the fact that the first few stages are sprinter friendly, wait till after the cobbles. If he does lose time on the cobbles, his odds will go out and you can get on him there at a better price.
If he doesn't lose time on the cobbles, then his price should stay around what it is now or maybe go in a bit but not much.
The way the betting works is as follows:
If a rider crashes during the race, you will lose your money. If he abandons or gets done for doping during the race, you will lose your money.
If he gets caught after the race, when he has been awarded the win, you keep your money. Same thing for stage wins.
I.E if you had Ricco to win the stage he won, you would have been paid out. He got busted for doping after the stage win, the books couldn't take your money away.
I.E if you had Ricco to win the Tour de France outright and he got busted for doping during the three weeks before the race was finished then it's tough luck, you lost your money.
I.E if you had Landis to win the 2006 Tour de France, you would keep your money.
To answer your other question, if you haven't picked up the answer above. You can bet the winner after the race has begun. For example, they had the outright winner in the Giro open to the last day. Obviously before Basso took pink, he was $1.55. When he took pink, he was $1.01. At one stage, Basso was about $8 to win. Hence why I mentioned about Contador. If he loses time on the cobbles, his price will drift out depending on how much he lost. So really, if you want to risk the value on Contador, wait till later in the first week.
I made a killing last year in the sprint stages backing Cavendish for the win and Farrar for the place. Cav for the win was around $2, and then went into $1.80, $1.60, $1.50, and even $1.40 on the Champs last year. Farrar's price for the place stayed around $4-$5 for the first few times. It wasn't until the bookies picked up the fact that people were making a killing that they had Farrar's odds something like. $8 to win and $1.80 for the place.
I intend on doing the same thing this year on sprinter friendly stages. Back Farrar for the place and potentially Cav for the win. Really, I can't see anyone in the flat stages coming first and second other than Cavendish and Farrar.
However, my advice to someone else on the Contador subject is the following:
The good thing about Contador being so short is that his odds won't come in that much. Yes, he will probably do the prologue well and be close to the lead, but his odds will stay roughly the same.
Due to this fact and the fact that the first few stages are sprinter friendly, wait till after the cobbles. If he does lose time on the cobbles, his odds will go out and you can get on him there at a better price.
If he doesn't lose time on the cobbles, then his price should stay around what it is now or maybe go in a bit but not much.
The way the betting works is as follows:
If a rider crashes during the race, you will lose your money. If he abandons or gets done for doping during the race, you will lose your money.
If he gets caught after the race, when he has been awarded the win, you keep your money. Same thing for stage wins.
I.E if you had Ricco to win the stage he won, you would have been paid out. He got busted for doping after the stage win, the books couldn't take your money away.
I.E if you had Ricco to win the Tour de France outright and he got busted for doping during the three weeks before the race was finished then it's tough luck, you lost your money.
I.E if you had Landis to win the 2006 Tour de France, you would keep your money.
To answer your other question, if you haven't picked up the answer above. You can bet the winner after the race has begun. For example, they had the outright winner in the Giro open to the last day. Obviously before Basso took pink, he was $1.55. When he took pink, he was $1.01. At one stage, Basso was about $8 to win. Hence why I mentioned about Contador. If he loses time on the cobbles, his price will drift out depending on how much he lost. So really, if you want to risk the value on Contador, wait till later in the first week.
I made a killing last year in the sprint stages backing Cavendish for the win and Farrar for the place. Cav for the win was around $2, and then went into $1.80, $1.60, $1.50, and even $1.40 on the Champs last year. Farrar's price for the place stayed around $4-$5 for the first few times. It wasn't until the bookies picked up the fact that people were making a killing that they had Farrar's odds something like. $8 to win and $1.80 for the place.
I intend on doing the same thing this year on sprinter friendly stages. Back Farrar for the place and potentially Cav for the win. Really, I can't see anyone in the flat stages coming first and second other than Cavendish and Farrar.
Anyway back on the Dauphine regarding tonights' stage.
At the moment there are no head to heads worth taking. Bennati's odds for the win are nice @ $6 - yesterday they were what, about $2? That's what I'm talking about in regards to the above. The sprinters odds fluctuate a lot.
He's paying $2 for the place, so I might end up backing the place or I might leave him out because I don't trust him.
I've had a look at the Saxo Bank situation. It looks like they are talking about Cookie being the sprint leader. If that's the case, there is value for him to come top 3 @ $5.50
At the moment there are no head to heads worth taking. Bennati's odds for the win are nice @ $6 - yesterday they were what, about $2? That's what I'm talking about in regards to the above. The sprinters odds fluctuate a lot.
He's paying $2 for the place, so I might end up backing the place or I might leave him out because I don't trust him.
I've had a look at the Saxo Bank situation. It looks like they are talking about Cookie being the sprint leader. If that's the case, there is value for him to come top 3 @ $5.50
Anyway back on the Dauphine regarding tonights' stage.
At the moment there are no head to heads worth taking. Bennati's odds for the win are nice @ $6 - yesterday they were what, about $2? That's what I'm talking about in regards to the above. The sprinters odds fluctuate a lot.
He's paying $2 for the place, so I might end up backing the place or I might leave him out because I don't trust him.
I've had a look at the Saxo Bank situation. It looks like they are talking about Cookie being the sprint leader. If that's the case, there is value for him to come top 3 @ $5.50. Will he? who knows. Will I take it, who knows. This is just loud thinking and assessing the situation at the moment.
At the moment there are no head to heads worth taking. Bennati's odds for the win are nice @ $6 - yesterday they were what, about $2? That's what I'm talking about in regards to the above. The sprinters odds fluctuate a lot.
He's paying $2 for the place, so I might end up backing the place or I might leave him out because I don't trust him.
I've had a look at the Saxo Bank situation. It looks like they are talking about Cookie being the sprint leader. If that's the case, there is value for him to come top 3 @ $5.50. Will he? who knows. Will I take it, who knows. This is just loud thinking and assessing the situation at the moment.
Thank you Sasquatch you have enlightened me a great deal! I will definitely wait on AC! great advice!
I.E if you had Pellizotti to win the Giro prior to his BP violation, you would lose your money... Goddamn it!
That's my advice, don't make GC bets too far out as a crash/sanction can still occur with a month to go.
Markets for the winner not including Contador gives you the chance of picking the winner out of an open field.
I'll try backing "outsiders" (non-Contadorians) in the full market in the hope that they put in a good performance in the first two weeks and shorten significantly.
That's my advice, don't make GC bets too far out as a crash/sanction can still occur with a month to go.
Markets for the winner not including Contador gives you the chance of picking the winner out of an open field.
I'll try backing "outsiders" (non-Contadorians) in the full market in the hope that they put in a good performance in the first two weeks and shorten significantly.
Schleck/Contador quinella last year was paying $6. But you can only do that before the race. So I'll do it day of the prologue when a market comes out for it.
Hopefully it's around the same price again
Will hedge that with Schleck to finish top 3 after the Cobbles.
Hopefully it's around the same price again
Will hedge that with Schleck to finish top 3 after the Cobbles.
Sasquatch said:
You didn't read what I wrote yesterday? Boasson Hagen will take it easy during the Dauphine. Luckily for me, many thought he would win today and yesterday. And I have been laying him all day. Even after he had been on the front of the peloton with a few km left, people wanted to back him. That is the beautiful thing about Betfair. Risk free money can be made because of people with little knowledge betting on cycling.
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